Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-02 Version:16

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	1
McCain	12
Romney	13
Thompson	1
Huckabee	1
Other	24

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	0
Romney	0
Thompson	0
Huckabee	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

Alright at this point my maps have been mostly wrong so I thought what the hey I'll just make a best case senerio for Romney map. It'll make me feel better if nothing else. This will be my final map pre-Super Tuesday. Now things would have to go almost perfect for this map to occur but hey I can hope.

So in this senerio Mitt Romney does really well on Super Tuesday as conservatives and the anti-McCain vote rallies around him. With Huckabee in the race and independents voting in many races I doubt this will happen but hey its my map right? So Romney comes off with a narrow win in California, Colorado, Missouri, Georgia, Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota and so on. McCain gains New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Tennessee, and so forth.

Now Romney with support and money can battle McCain all the way to the last primaries in June. Huckabee will have to drop out due to a lack of support and money. He's hopeless right now but I think he's eyeing McCain's VP spot and hoping to spoil things for Mitt. Even in this best of senerios Romney is only able to deny McCain enough delegates to broker the convention.

So that's it. I don't care how wrong it is, I like to look at it. At least Romney will have one vote in Missouri.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: AHDuke99 (R-SC) 2008-02-02 @ 18:50:15
It just seems like everyone is rallying around McCain at this point. I would be surprised if he didn't sweep 2/5 outside of Massachusetts, Utah, and Arkansas. I know Huckabee is tied with him in Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia, but I have to believe McCain will win those states by small margins. I just don't see him getting beat if it isn't a home state or a religion home state.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-02 @ 19:38:55
Well the people have suprised us before. I mean again this is best case senerio. And states like Illinois and California will be dividing up their votes. We don't need enough to win just enough to broker the convention. In reality the endorsements are coming either from more moderates or those that want jobs in the new administration because they "sense" a winner. Not everyone is or is going to rally around McCain. In fact a good number of conservatives won't. We'll see how things go on 2/5. I'm not optmistic but we'll just have to deal with it.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-02 @ 20:58:39
Well I got another state wrong, Mitt Romney just won the Maine caucus 52% to 22%. What was very interesting is that Huckabee finished fourth behind Paul (19% to 6%). Last Edit: 2008-02-02 @ 21:17:24

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-02 @ 22:25:40
Yes, Romney seems to do very well in caucus states, which makes me wonder about Minnesota (despite the recent poll); caucuses seem to attract hardened party veterans (which are inclined to go for Romney). This is why I predict Romney to sweep the states that hold Caucuses on Feb 5th, perhaps with the exception of Minnesota. I almost gave Maine to Romney because it's a caucus, in fact, but I thought McCain's Florida win would give him a boost, as well as the fact he won neighboring New Hampshire. Paul was fairly organized in Maine, I'm not sure why he picked Maine (or maybe the people of Maine picked him?), a lot of Paul supporters said he'd win. I'm glad to see he didn't, ROFL.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-02 @ 23:29:07
What can you expect, Maine was a heaven for Perot voters. But still Romney does do well in most caucus. For Super Tuesday that means he could do well in Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. I'm sure he'll do well in his home state of Massachusetts. In addition I would not rule out him winning Missouri, Tennessee, and maybe Georgia. Now he may not win all but he does have a shot. He'll take what he needs from California without winning it.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-02 @ 23:53:50
Yes, Romney's definitely not out of this thing, but his window of opportunity to crush McCain has closed. The best he could possibly do is split delegates with McCain and end up at the convention. One thing I find, perhaps, telling about this race is Rasmussen. Rasmussen has correctly picked the winner in each state except SC (the last SC Rasmussen Poll was a Tie). Although the margins have been off, this is still a great feat. I'll definitely be watching Rasmussen's polls over the coming days, they must be doing something right... I try not to rely too much on polls, but at some point you realize: "What else is there?" Heh...

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-03 @ 00:10:03
The problem for Romney is, there aren't a whole lot of delegates in those caucus states. Also, from what I understand, the caucuses aren't winner-take-all, so Paul could present a problem if he can take some delegates in Montana or Alaska. In my opinion, the South will be pivotal to Romney if he is to move forward...he must win at least a couple southern states, which isn't out of the question, but he must win them. All of this is in addition, of course, to a strong showing in California.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-03 @ 00:11:50
On that I agree. At this point a brokered convention is the best bet. But I do think that wins in Tennessee and Missouri could put him in a good place in addition to what you have said. I do admire your stance on polls. Personally I've never liked to use them much and after that little display in New Hampshire with Obama I'm even more skeptical. The truth is campigns turn on a dime and we won't know what has happened till late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning. Last Edit: 2008-02-03 @ 00:13:09

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-03 @ 00:23:13
On the other hand, if Huckabee has a strong showing in the South, it could further complicate things. He could amass enough delegates to actually have a say in the thing. This is all wild speculation though, we won't know anything until the voters have actually had their say. Speaking of which, are you ready to go vote? Are you sure there's no chance of me talking you out of it? Hehe, I'm kidding, I'm kidding... Last Edit: 2008-02-03 @ 00:24:28

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-03 @ 12:19:14
lol, no not really. I have a lot to do Tuesday afternoon but I'll go to the polls early that morning to vote for Mitt Romney. We don't need much on Super Tuesday to stay in - a few caucus states, Massachusetts, Missouri, Tennessee (or Georgia), and a strong showing in California. Then we battle it out from there. I think though that Romney's win in Maine means that endorsements are not the end all and be all. The governor's endorsement of McCain in Florida did help but Snowe and Collins did not have the much effect on Maine. So we head on to 2/5.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-03 @ 16:12:10
"Missouri, Tennessee (or Georgia), and a strong showing in California." That'll be the key right there, if he can win at least a couple of southern states AND have a strong showing in California (which shouldn't be a problem with the Mormon population in Southern California), he'll be able to go on. He needs those southern states.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-03 @ 21:01:13
I agree in fact here is my wish list: Alaska, California (or a strong showing), Georgia, Utah, Massachusetts, Tennessee, North Dakota, Montana, Missouri, and Colorado. Added bonuses would include Minnesota, Deleware, and Alabama. That would be what we need. In addition to that we could pick up several states following Super Tuesday including Kansas, Virginia (maybe), Washington (caucus), and hopefully Texas. I expect Huckabee to be done after 2/5, which helps Romney. We can follow that up the 4/3 with Mississippi, Indiana, Rhode Island (governor's endorsement so maybe), North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Sure that would give us enough delegates to if nothing else broker the convention. Democrats are hardly in better shape as it looks like Obama and Hillary could battle this thing out all the way to when Pennslyvania votes in late April. So we'll hardly be alone.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-03 @ 21:16:21
Sounds about right to me; Missouri, Tennessee, Georgia, and California will be the states to watch Tuesday. If Romney can win at least 2 out of 4 of those states, he's in good shape, anything less than that will be hard to recover from though.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-03 @ 23:08:09
I've just noticed that Minnesota, North Dakota, and Montana's caucuses are open to all voters (Nevada, Wyoming, Maine, Alaska and Colorado's are closed), this could make those states a little more competitive for McCain, I'm not sure. My gut tells me Romney still sweeps them, except for Minnesota, but I'll be watching them Tuesday.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-04 @ 01:16:05
We'll just have to see how it all goes. The other factor to consider is how excited a lot of independents are about Obama. Most but a couple of our states Super Tuesday primaries are on the same day as the Democrats. That means that independents will have to choice whether to support Obama or McCain in each states' primary or caucus. Its a real fight in both parties. I probably will go vote Tuesday morning and then not check the results until Wednesday morning when all is said and done. That or very very late Tuesday night.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-04 @ 01:35:00
Hehe, we'll just see if you can stand to wait that long to check results, I don't think you can do it... ;-P You have a point about Obama. If the primaries have been hyped up this much over the past year, can you imagine how the GE will be?!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-04 @ 02:10:30
Thanks for the confindence, lol. I'm going to try to wait but you may be right. I guess I'll just have to load up on my work schedual to keep my mind occupied. You know to be honest I wish this whole thing, both primaries and general election where over and done with. I mean it use to be that the whole thing lasted only about six months. Primaries in the springs, conventions in late summer, election in the fall. But this campign will have been going on for two years! Its just gotten out of hand I think the people are sick and tired of it all. We really should go back to the way things where. That or have one to three primary days in the spring, say April, then go about our business. As it is I think that most Americans get burned out. I know that even as a political junkie I too am sick of all the campigning. And its not even the GE yet! Sigh.... Last Edit: 2008-02-04 @ 02:11:40

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-04 @ 02:40:39
One thing I hate, is how much money is spent by the campaigns...when you have around 10 campaigns, it adds up! It seems like such a waste to me.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-04 @ 05:52:27
McCain has been campaigning in Massachusetts! That's a ballsy move...and ill advised. He's making a mistake, IMO, if I were McCain I'd be all over California right now. Last Edit: 2008-02-04 @ 05:57:24

By: AHDuke99 (R-SC) 2008-02-04 @ 17:34:13
McCain will be in Massachusetts, NY and NJ today. I now predict Romney will win California by a slim margin over McCain. He'll also win Colorado by a large margin, Massachusetts, North Dakota, and Utah. He may still be in the race, but it all depends on how much of his fortune he is willing to spend from here on out. He wouldn't be in the race without it. Tomorrow will be very interesting for both parties. Even if it went to a brokered convention, Romney would never win it. He's hated by too many. Most of his support is coming from the Mormons and the anti-McCain people. Maybe we could bring back Rudy Giuliani!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-04 @ 23:29:51
Well McCain sure won't win a brokered convention or the general election, conservatives hate him. I've never seen any candidate from our own party hated so badly. I and others will not vote for that man under any conditions. Anyway we'll see how it goes. It'd be nice at a brokered convention to nominate AHDuke's govenor from South Carolina. Again tomorrow will reveil a lot.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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