Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-06 Version:18

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	1
McCain	17
Romney	16
Thompson	1
Huckabee	1
Other	16

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	0
Romney	0
Thompson	0
Huckabee	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Analysis

Well the dynamics have certainly changed tonight. I would be tempted to say that McCain is the winner and he probably will go on to be. However both Romney and Huckabee have vowed to fight on and with Huckabee's southern strength I think that presents an interesting situation. So lets assume for the moment that they do stay in the race.

We know that Huckabee will continue to hurt Romney by splitting conservatives allowing moderates and independents to put McCain over the top. The next few races could break down as follows. McCain is well suited to win Maryland, DC, Louisiana, and Wisconsin. However Romney does well in caucus so I think that he'll prevail in Kansas and Washington. Virginia is a tossup but Huckabee's win in West Virginia shows McCain's lock on the Virginias is not absolute. If a few McCain voters didn't go to Huckabee then Romney would have won West Virginia.

So in the end these are the next batches of predictions. If Huckabee and Romney can stay in and keep winning a few states and taking delegates all the way past 3/4 and into April then I think we could have a brokered convention on our hands. Its the best conservatives can hope for right now.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-06 @ 07:50:36
Huckabee did surprisingly well in the Caucus states today, despite barely campaigning in them. From here on out, it will be easier for Huckabee in that he can focus on one or two states at a time. He could run strong in caucuses to come, and has at least a shot at Kansas. Had WV been a Primary, I feel it very likely McCain would have won, but who knows. West Virginia was a convention state, while Virginia is a primary state. Momentum and name recognition are very important in primaries, where not all voters can be reached as easily as in caucuses. On the other hand, organization is key in caucuses, Romney has the upper hand here and possibly Huckabee (since he can focus his resources on one state at a time from here on out). Although Romney is staying in, it remains to be seen whether he will reach into his own pocket once again, his decision on this matter will effect the race. McCain scored a devastating defeat to Romney in California, with 90% of precincts reporting Romney won only 3 counties, this may deter him from making further personal investments in the race. In a Today show interview with Huckabee this morning, when asked "if McCain called this week with a VP deal would you accept it?" or something to that effect, Huckabee seemed to dodge the question and did not give an answer either way. So that is another thing to keep in mind. Huckabee also expressed that he may not campaign in Louisiana, siteing the odd way in which it awards delegates as a deterrent, so I'm not sure how Louisiana will play out. McCain won all but one of the winner-take-all states last night, the up-coming states however are proportional save Virginia, so it will be difficult for the candidates to catch up with McCain's delegate lead. There are still a lot of possible directions this race could take.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-06 @ 10:08:35
I only see one as far as the nominee - it'll be McCain. I liked Huck's line: Romney was right, it is a two man race: me and McCain!

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-06 @ 15:29:15
Real funny considering that Huckabee is still behind Romney in votes, delegates, and states won. There had always been a backroom deal to get McCain the nomination. Huckabee is in line for VP and has stayed in to hurt Romney. So McCain-Huckabee can go down in flames for all I care. We could still broker the convention. Note that he wins with old voters, men, independents, moderates, and latinos. He loses conservatives and party regulars time and again. He wins pluralities while the GOP base remains split. He can win the nomination without us in the base, lets see if he can win in the fall.

By: AHDuke99 (R-SC) 2008-02-07 @ 13:22:03
Romney just dropped out. McCain will be our nominee this year unless Huckabee can sweep the remaining states.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-07 @ 17:21:00
I thought he might drop out. I'd say his heart is aching right now, with all the time, money, and resources he put into his campaign. I have to say though, that was a great speech he gave to the CPAC.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-07 @ 21:53:14
Won't matter. Good luck to McCain in the fall, he'll need it. I think we can say safely now game over.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-07 @ 22:13:01
What won't matter?

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-08 @ 09:43:11
CPAC speech. Mitt gave a great one, damn why is the last one always so good? Well we move on, things are the way they are.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-08 @ 10:05:57
Yes, that's what I was saying, Mitt's speech was great. If he'd been that guy during the campaign, he'd have won. Romney tried to market himself as so many different things during the campaign (and past campaigns), sometimes the best thing you can be is yourself, which I feel Mitt showed in that speech to the CPAC. I suppose it's all water under the bridge at this point though.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-09 @ 09:20:33
This is from a RealClearPolitics article: --------------------------------------------- VP Portman? Republican political operatives close to President George W. Bush are floating the name of one of his former Cabinet members, ex-Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio, as John McCain's vice presidential running mate. Portman at age 52 would be two decades younger than McCain, built a lifetime American Conservative Union voting record in Congress of 89 percent, and has both high-level executive and legislative experience. His biggest asset is coming from Ohio, which was a presidential swing state in 2004 and may be one again in 2008. After starting in Washington as an aide to the senior President Bush, Portman served 12 years in Congress representing a Cincinnati district and rising to the chairmanship of the House Republican leadership. He left the House in 2005 to become U.S. Trade Representative and later director of the Office of Management and Budget. --------------------------------------------- Not a bad choice, but I still think a Governor would be best. Preferably a young, conservative, governor from the south, with business experience; is there anyone that fits that bill? Last Edit: 2008-02-09 @ 09:27:08

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-09 @ 16:20:42
No Romney would have won if it were not for Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee splitting the conservative vote. If it were not for the fact that these states came one right after the other without a chance to get to know the candidates as we did in times past. And he could have won if all our primaries were closed well in advance. But its like you said, its water under the bridge now. McCain is the GOP nominee. I really don't know who McCain will pick as the VP. Some say Perry of Texas others Sanford of South Carolina. Rumors are floating about him picking Lieberman and others think Huckabee. I really don't know at this point. We'll know in a few weeks I'm sure.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2008-02-09 @ 22:41:42
If Romney was a compelling candidate, he would have won despite the presence of other lackluster candidates in the field. He was not. Obviously.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-10 @ 01:14:37
Maybe, maybe not. The dynamics of the race fractured the base vote. Not to mention that none of the candidates in this cycle fit the bill that most conservatives wanted. I see in the end that Thompson and Romney would have been the best choices. But they could not rally the needed support, not with so many independents in the race early on and the front heavy state schedual. Rudy only appealed to foriegn/fiscal conservatives while Huckabee sough evangelicals. McCain satisfies the moderates and "independents" and liberal Republicans. Its a shame we did not have a better field. But that's fine. We'll be done with McCain soon enough. Then its on to 2012 where hopefully we'll have better luck next time.

By: outzawe (R-KY) 2008-02-10 @ 09:43:55
"No Romney would have won if it were not for Thompson, Giuliani, and Huckabee splitting the conservative vote. If it were not for the fact that these states came one right after the other without a chance to get to know the candidates as we did in times past. And he could have won if all our primaries were closed well in advance." I find that unlikely. First off, the more Iowans got to know Romney the more they didn't like him, so had the primaries been spread out I find it likely Romney would have done poorly. Second, had the primaries been closed, it would likely have resulted in a brokered convention. The Iowa results would not have changed, so Huckabee would have still won there, likely would have placed second in New Hampshire, and would have won South Carolina, and placed a close second to Giuliani in Florida. Giuliani would have won the winner-take-all North East states, Huckabee would have swept the south and midwest, Romney and Huckabee would have split the interior west, and Giuliani & Romney would have fought over California. "Its a shame we did not have a better field." Now, I agree with that.

By: CR (--MO) 2008-02-10 @ 17:06:56
Note the key word here is could have. We don't know how the campigns would have unfolded nor the events that would have taken place had the race been limited to just Romney and McCain. Iowans liked Romney just fine until Christian Huckabee showed up. But the point is a divided field has created trouble in all states and really split the party. Our nomination process needs an over haul and to be modernized. Not only that but as we have said we need some better candidates.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	30/56	81/112	72.3%	10	3	194	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	5	3	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	4	3	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	18/36	53/72	73.6%	10	1	158	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	6	1	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	233	17	T	153
2012 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	25	2	489	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	19/33	48/66	72.7%	6	2	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	8/11	18/22	81.8%	5	2	24	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	17/52	63/104	60.6%	29	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	245	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	19	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	8	1	106	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	3	1	T	103
2008 President	47/56	28/56	75/112	67.0%	44	1	702	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	7	1	257	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	232	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	43/52	24/52	67/104	64.4%	22	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	34/49	15/49	49/98	50.0%	23	-	55	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	534/609	307/609	841/1218	69.0%

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