PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - ksperkins (R-VT) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-02-22 Version:15

Prediction Map
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Confidence Map
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Prediction States Won
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Confidence States Won
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Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages

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Prediction History
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Version: 4

Post Romney win in Michigan prediction. McCain loses front runner status and path to nomination. Huckabee secures nomination very narrowly in contest with Giuliani. Giuliani surges following Michigan, and finishes with a strong second.

Version: 1

Early States:

Iowa: Mike Huckabee has gained a lot of ground recently, but Mitt Romney has the name recognition, financial resources, and spectacular ground organization necessary to beat him in this caucus. I predict that it will be a narrow win for Mr. Romney.

New Hampshire: Mitt Romney has been campaigning hard for months, but John McCain won in the last Republican primary. He's very well known by New Hampshire voters, and independents in particular will assist in Mr. McCain's victory. I predict that Mr. McCain will win once again this year, but only by a slight margin.

Michigan: This is Mitt Romney's home state, but candidates have been locked in a tight battle for its electoral votes. However, I predict that Mr. Romney's home field advantage will prove to be an asset and he will triumph in the primary.

South Carolina: This state's electoral votes have been within arm's length of so many Republican candidates at one point or another. It looked like Fred Thompson was going to come out on top for awhile, but he has run a rather lackluster campaign and he got a late start. I predict that Mike Huckabee, the only southern alternative, will win there.

Florida: Rudy Giuliani has been courting Florida voters for a long time now. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney have threatened his lead at times, but they won't succeed in the primary. The large number of New Yorkers who have relocated to this retirement haven will flock to the polls on voting day. Mr. Giuliani will easily collect its electoral votes.

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 34/37 22/37 56/74 75.7% pie 2 43 116T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 16/37 49/74 66.2% pie 2 43 179T312
P 2008 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 24 0 200T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 32/52 9/52 41/104 39.4% pie 7 - 99T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 38/49 17/49 55/98 56.1% pie 15 - 27T235
Aggregate Predictions 190/231 102/231 292/462 63.2% pie

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