PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - auburntiger (R-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-05 Version:8

Prediction Map
auburntiger MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
auburntiger MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani1
 
McCain39
 
Romney7
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee4
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain4
 
Romney2
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee2
 
Other0
 
Tossup43
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
48426
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Assuming McCain wins SC, Thompson will drop out and endorse him. I predict a McCain victory by 2%.

Assuming McCain wins FL, Giuliani will drop out and also endorse him. McCain also narrowly defeats Giuliani by about 2%.

Now it's a three man race: McCain, Romney, Huckabee.

On Super Tuesday, the South divides between Huckabee and McCain. McCain takes Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri (some people include this as a southern state) Huckabee takes Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Kentucky, West Virginia.

Assuming a win in Nevada for Romney, he stays in the race. He picks up Massachusetts, Utah, Montana on Super Tuesday...just enough to hang on.

However, with Rudy's endorsement of John McCain, all the big states (CA, NJ, NY, IL, PA) all go to McCain...actually some polls already have McCain leading in a few of these big ones, so that endorsement would just solidify them for McCain.

Comments and/or criticisms anyone?

Needless to say, McCain wins the nomination


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 33/35 19/35 52/70 74.3% pie 7 23 170T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 21/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 25 164T372
P 2016 President 51/56 32/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 24 114T678
P 2016 Senate /34 /34 /68 0.0% pie 2457701 362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 3/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 24 119T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 5 1 21T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 5 1 123T300
P 2012 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 1 14 614T760
P 2012 Senate 27/33 13/33 40/66 60.6% pie 1 14 252T343
P 2012 Governor 8/11 4/11 12/22 54.5% pie 1 14 196T228
P 2010 Senate 33/37 22/37 55/74 74.3% pie 13 1 133T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 7 1 91T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 3 7 56T103
P 2008 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 20 29 100T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 13/33 45/66 68.2% pie 2 33 257T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 4/11 14/22 63.6% pie 4 33 212T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 40/52 1/52 41/104 39.4% pie 6 - 99T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 42/49 6/49 48/98 49.0% pie 8 - 63235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 15/33 47/66 71.2% pie 6 1 232T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 12/36 45/72 62.5% pie 5 1 207T312
Aggregate Predictions 583/691 310/691 893/1382 64.6% pie


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