Election 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2008-03-05 Version:8

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	1
McCain	39
Romney	7
Thompson	0
Huckabee	4
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Giuliani	0
McCain	4
Romney	2
Thompson	0
Huckabee	2
Other	0
Tossup	43

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	42	6

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Assuming McCain wins SC, Thompson will drop out and endorse him. I predict a McCain victory by 2%.

Assuming McCain wins FL, Giuliani will drop out and also endorse him. McCain also narrowly defeats Giuliani by about 2%.

Now it's a three man race: McCain, Romney, Huckabee.

On Super Tuesday, the South divides between Huckabee and McCain. McCain takes Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri (some people include this as a southern state) Huckabee takes Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Arkansas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Kentucky, West Virginia.

Assuming a win in Nevada for Romney, he stays in the race. He picks up Massachusetts, Utah, Montana on Super Tuesday...just enough to hang on.

However, with Rudy's endorsement of John McCain, all the big states (CA, NJ, NY, IL, PA) all go to McCain...actually some polls already have McCain leading in a few of these big ones, so that endorsement would just solidify them for McCain.

Comments and/or criticisms anyone?

Needless to say, McCain wins the nomination

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	/56	/56	/112	%					682
2020 Senate	/35	/35	/70	%					422
2020 Governor	/11	/11	/22	%					292
2018 Senate	33/35	19/35	52/70	74.3%	7	23	170	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	5	25	164	T	372
2016 President	51/56	32/56	83/112	74.1%	1	24	114	T	678
2016 Senate	/34	/34	/68	0.0%		2457701			362
2016 Governor	10/12	3/12	13/24	54.2%	1	24	119	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	5	1	21	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	5	1	123	T	300
2012 President	49/56	36/56	85/112	75.9%	1	14	614	T	760
2012 Senate	27/33	13/33	40/66	60.6%	1	14	252	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	4/11	12/22	54.5%	1	14	196	T	228
2010 Senate	33/37	22/37	55/74	74.3%	13	1	133	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	91	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	3	7	56	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	20	29	100	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	13/33	45/66	68.2%	2	33	257	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	4	33	212	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	40/52	1/52	41/104	39.4%	6	-	99	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	42/49	6/49	48/98	49.0%	8	-	63		235
2006 U.S. Senate	32/33	15/33	47/66	71.2%	6	1	232	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	12/36	45/72	62.5%	5	1	207	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	583/691	310/691	893/1382	64.6%

Links

Back to 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Home - Predictions Home