There's a slight glitch here - Liep has WV listed later in the year, but Huck just won there. I can use all the help I CAN GET!

Game over.

OKay, I'll feel really dumb if McCain wins South Carolina tommorrow. In this scenario, McCain looses narrowly to the Huckster there, and Rudy barely defeats them both in Florida. McCain, Giuliani & Huck divy up Super duper Tuesday states, with Romney carrying only a disappointing few Western states, dropping out or becoming irrelevent thereafter. Rudy drops out later in February. Huck hangs in and finnaly concedes in May.

This is a McCain-Huckabee race. A Romney win in Michigan could upset this, but I doubt it. Romney will loose there and his campaign will essentially be over. South Carolina is a must win for Huck. I see him narrrowly being edged out by McCain there on defense issues. Thompson will then drop out after a dissapointing fourth and endorse McCain. That will give McCain the edge in Florida, where he already leads, and a clear victory on Feb. 5. I am being kind, I think, in awarding New York and New Jersey to Guiliani. I imagine he drops out after loosing Florida.

As a Democrat and student of politics, I would love to see a brokered convention in St. Paul or a sure looser like Romney be the GOP nominee. I don't see either at this point.

The following would make either more likely, but in and of themselves, are unlikely: Romney win in Michigan, Thompson surge to strong 3rd in So. Carolina (better than that is just implausible), or Guiliani win in Florida, looking implausible itself. A third place finish there for Rudy is more likely. The GOP may actually determine its nominee before the Dems do!

Huckabee barely wins Iowa, and only wins his native Arkansas therafter. McCain capitalizes on Romney loss by winning in NH, MI, and SC, while Romney takes WY & NV. Thompson drops out after SC, endorsing McCain. McCain largely sweeps Feb. 5, and clinches the nomination in March.

Guiliani and Romney continue to be the most negative campaigners, causing eventual voter wrath in favor of smooth & likeable Huckabee and Hero McCain. Huck takes Iowa, McCain upsets the field in New Hampshire, leading to a Huckabee-McCain race through the rest of the primaries. Huckabee concedes after loosing the final primary in Nebraska, anis therafter named as McCain's running mate.

Just tweeked some percentages.

Huckabee's momentum from wins in Iowa and South Carolina, and a surprising second in New Hamphire, catapults him to victories on Tsnami Tuesday, making it a two man race with Guiliani. With neither man clinching the nomination, the first contested convention since '76 nominates Huckabee.

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