PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - wingindy (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-03-10 Version:11

Prediction Map
wingindy MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
wingindy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain38
 
Romney9
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee5
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain17
 
Romney4
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee1
 
Other0
 
Tossup30
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
544311
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 10

There's a slight glitch here - Liep has WV listed later in the year, but Huck just won there. I can use all the help I CAN GET!


Version: 9

Game over.


Version: 7

OKay, I'll feel really dumb if McCain wins South Carolina tommorrow. In this scenario, McCain looses narrowly to the Huckster there, and Rudy barely defeats them both in Florida. McCain, Giuliani & Huck divy up Super duper Tuesday states, with Romney carrying only a disappointing few Western states, dropping out or becoming irrelevent thereafter. Rudy drops out later in February. Huck hangs in and finnaly concedes in May.


Version: 6

This is a McCain-Huckabee race. A Romney win in Michigan could upset this, but I doubt it. Romney will loose there and his campaign will essentially be over. South Carolina is a must win for Huck. I see him narrrowly being edged out by McCain there on defense issues. Thompson will then drop out after a dissapointing fourth and endorse McCain. That will give McCain the edge in Florida, where he already leads, and a clear victory on Feb. 5. I am being kind, I think, in awarding New York and New Jersey to Guiliani. I imagine he drops out after loosing Florida.

As a Democrat and student of politics, I would love to see a brokered convention in St. Paul or a sure looser like Romney be the GOP nominee. I don't see either at this point.

The following would make either more likely, but in and of themselves, are unlikely: Romney win in Michigan, Thompson surge to strong 3rd in So. Carolina (better than that is just implausible), or Guiliani win in Florida, looking implausible itself. A third place finish there for Rudy is more likely. The GOP may actually determine its nominee before the Dems do!


Version: 4

Huckabee barely wins Iowa, and only wins his native Arkansas therafter. McCain capitalizes on Romney loss by winning in NH, MI, and SC, while Romney takes WY & NV. Thompson drops out after SC, endorsing McCain. McCain largely sweeps Feb. 5, and clinches the nomination in March.


Version: 3

Guiliani and Romney continue to be the most negative campaigners, causing eventual voter wrath in favor of smooth & likeable Huckabee and Hero McCain. Huck takes Iowa, McCain upsets the field in New Hampshire, leading to a Huckabee-McCain race through the rest of the primaries. Huckabee concedes after loosing the final primary in Nebraska, anis therafter named as McCain's running mate.


Version: 2

Just tweeked some percentages.


Version: 1

Huckabee's momentum from wins in Iowa and South Carolina, and a surprising second in New Hamphire, catapults him to victories on Tsnami Tuesday, making it a two man race with Guiliani. With neither man clinching the nomination, the first contested convention since '76 nominates Huckabee.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 3 27 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 3 21 94T372
P 2016 President 53/56 22/56 75/112 67.0% pie 21 1 440T678
P 2016 Senate 28/34 17/34 45/68 66.2% pie 5 5 277T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 2/12 9/24 37.5% pie 1 94 269T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 0 122T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 17/36 44/72 61.1% pie 2 16 171T300
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T456
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T235
Aggregate Predictions 585/661 332/661 917/1322 69.4% pie


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