McCain clobbers Romney everywhere in the Northeast, although Romney still takes MA comfortably.

The presence of Huckabee in the South pays huge dividends for McCain, as the split of the conservative/anti-McCain vote enables McCain to win every southern state (except Huckabee's home of Arkansas) while coming nowhere near a majority of votes anywhere (in some cases, even less than 40%). While Huckabee comes close in most of these states, the losses basically doom his campaign for good, although there's still the chance he stays in the race as a relative fringe candidate just to continue screwing Romney over (not that I would blame him).

McCain wins easily in Arizona, Illinois and Minnesota, while also taking Missouri by a smaller yet still comfortable margin. The libertarian mountain west is solidly Romney country, as I even give him a good chance of breaking 80% in Utah.

In California, the momentum seems to be with Romney. His money and time spent there appears to be swaying the polls, which is why I reluctantly give the state to him. However, the high proportion of absentee/advanced ballots cast really complicates things, as McCain had the clear advantage the past week or 2 and presumably would have an edge among the early voters. I suspect that McCain's decision to try making inroads in Massachusetts was a costly miscalculation, as it was time he could have spent campaigning in CA to solidify his advantage and essentially seal the nomination rather than making a bold statement on Romney's turf. I believe even if McCain wins all the states I gave him, a Romney victory in CA would keep his campaign alive and give him at least some spark of momentum to keep the race reasonably competitive.

In Florida, I see Romney's momentum and superior organization (unfortunately) propelling him to a narrow victory over McCain. Unsurprisingly, the result basically finishes Giuliani (I suspect he'll drop out within a day or 2 and endorse McCain) and diminishes whatever hopes Huckabee had of winning anywhere outside the Evangelical heartland. I see Maine still going to McCain on the premise that its dynamics should be somewhat similar to NH (if not even more moderate).

I'm not going to update my Super Tuesday states at the moment because of the obvious volatility, but I suspect the initial Giuliani vs. Huckabee dual I pegged will largely shift into McCain claiming the Giuliani states, Romney taking the western and more libertarian-leaning western Huckabee states, while Huckabee holds onto most of his initial Southern states.

After nailing Iowa and NH with my initial prediction but missing Michigan, I've made a couple revisions for tomorrow's states.

It looks from polls like Romney has the edge in Nevada, so I give him a slight victory there aided by his strong resources and momentum from MI.

Some of these polls are really giving me second thoughts about Huckabee in SC, but I just can't see him losing to McCain there given the Evangelical demographics. I think Huckabee squeaks out a close one due to disproportionately high Evangelical turnout, Thompson supporters from polls realizing the futility of their candidate and switching to Huckabee (the 2nd choice for most of them) and/or a majority of last-minute undecideds picking Huckabee.


One random thought: is it possible that the Undecideds are largely Evangelicals deciding between Thompson and Huckabee, in which case McCain's lead over Huckabee would be vastly over-stated by these polls? (I don't know but I'm just throwing this out there).

Huckabee maintains his current poll lead and relies on the Evangelicals to take Iowa. McCain, boosted by strong independent turnout after Obama’s disappointment in Iowa (see my Dem prediction), pulls off a minor upset in NH and effectively dooms Romney’s chances. The campaign begins to take on 2000 dimensions, with Huckabee simply claiming Bush’s base.

With his momentum from NH and high independent turnout (since Dems primary is worthless), McCain squeaks out another victory in Michigan. However, Huckabee taps into his socially conservative base to pull out a comfortable victory in SC and a smaller one in Nevada, where Giuliani’s presence effectively splits the moderate vote with McCain. By this point, Thompson and Romney have both either withdrawn from the race or faded into irrelevance, as Huckabee’s success crowded out Thompson and Romney’s strategy of winning the early states was an utter failure.

Giuliani stays in the race, focusing on the large and Super Tuesday states in hopes that his fundraising advantage will improve his chances with moderate urban voters. Huckabee racks up another win in Wyoming, although McCain is able to salvage Hawaii with its smaller social conservative base. In Florida, Giuliani spends and campaigns heavily, overpowering his poorly funded rivals to win his first state. McCain’s fundraising woes begin to hinder his performance, although Huckabee’s finances improve somewhat due to his position as de facto social conservative candidate. McCain still takes Maine just before Super Tuesday in similar fashion to his NH victory.

On Super Tuesday, most states come down to the superior-funded Giuliani and Huckabee, with Huckabee dominating the South and heartland while Giuliani takes most of the North-East and west coast (largely along Red state/Blue State lines). Huckabee carries Illinois and a few other states with only tepid support due to the moderate vote split between McCain and Giuliani. The heavy Mormon population of Utah gives Romney his only win of the campaign. McCain still takes Arizona and a couple of others with strong independent support, but Super Tuesday effectively finishes his campaign while Giuliani probably wins enough delegates/states to keep his campaign alive.

Under this assumption, a similar pattern of state victories split between Giuliani and Huckabee follows Super Tuesday the rest of the way, making a brokered convention highly likely.

• View Most Recent Entries
• View Entries with Most Recent Member Comments
• Go to Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Home
• Update My 2008 Rep Presidential Primary Prediction Map