PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-16 Version:14

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain37
 
Romney13
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee2
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain25
 
Romney6
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee1
 
Other0
 
Tossup20
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
634122
piepiepie

Analysis

Margins.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 13

Margins game again.


Version: 12

Just some minor tweaking of margins.


Version: 11

McCain has officially clinched the nomination. And the margins game continues.


Version: 10

McCain has this. From now on, it's just a matter of margins.


Version: 9

Huckabee is messing up all my predictions! >:(


Version: 8

Stupid Huckabee...


Version: 7

Huckabee the spoiler will be gone soon. McCain is the nominee. And Nik...Nik is pissed.


Version: 6

Every Conservative I know is terrified at the prospect of John McCain as the Republican nominee. In the lead up to super Tuesday, there is a growing sense that lots of Huckabee voters are abandoning ship in the hopes of sinking McCain's campaign. Should Romney win Georgia and California, McCain's sense of inevitability is seriously impeded. Huckabee is sinking fast in Georgia and McCain is stalled there. In California, Romney is now polling ahead and Independents are barred from voting in the primary. Therefore, I predict that Romney will win both states, as well as 6 others voting tomorrow. He also has a shot at Delaware, though I predict that will still go to McCain. McCain will win several delegate rich winner-take-all states in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Missouri, and Arizona (though there is an outside shot that McCain could lose his home state to Romney because McCain hasn't topped 43% in any poll there since last February and lots of Conservatives in the state loath him. For these reasons, McCain will come out of Super Tuesday with loads of delegates, but the losses will evaporate the aura of inevitability he needed to win, allowing Romney to win in places like North Carolina and Texas after Huckabee exits the race. Huckabee will endorse McCain, but the majority of his followers will not. All in all...I rate this race as 51% chance of McCain getting the nomination - 49% Romney.


Version: 5

It doesn't HAVE to be this way... :( I really hate John McCain.


Version: 4

Looks like Giuliani is tanking in Florida; if he comes in third...he's finished. After Super Tuesday, Huckabee will be finished, too. The sooner this thing gets down to a two man race...the sooner Romney consolidates the base and starts winning primaries in earnest. Everyone says McCain is now the frontrunner...but that's probably just wishful Democrat thinking. Conservatives and McCain go together like oil and water.


Version: 3

So it looks like Fred isn't going to pull off a win in South Carolina. He and Huckabee and Romney will be splitting the Conservative vote. This will allow McCain to win. Fred will probably withdraw thereafter. McCain's momentum will probably end by Super Tuesday, unless he beats Rudy in Florida. If Rudy wins in Florida (and I think he still has a tiny edge as of this writing), then it will come down to Rudy v. Romney. If McCain wins Florida, then it's Romney v. McCain for the duration. Huckabee will fizzle out after Super Tuesday and probably won't last more into March - mostly because there aren't many states voting on Super Tuesday that he can win, and losing South Carolina will likely deal a permanently crippling blow to his campaign. In other news, I think the Nevada Caucus leans to Mitt, and that will help his campaign gain some major momentum (which is the ultimate reason he will be one of the final two standing).


Version: 2

I'm still tweaking...but this reflects a lot of the changes that have gone on since the original map, I believe. It's only completely accurate through New Hamphire this coming Tuesday, however. So I will probably be updating again within the week.


Version: 1

This is only a first impression and still needs to be dickered with a bit to get it to reflect my sentiments exactly...but it's a good start.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T
Aggregate Predictions 707/813 475/813 1182/1626 72.7% pie


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