PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - Gustaf (D-SWE) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-20 Version:20

Prediction Map
Gustaf MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Gustaf MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain36
 
Romney12
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee4
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain27
 
Romney5
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee3
 
Other0
 
Tossup17
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
613922
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 3

Given the Iowa result, Romney is dead. He and Guliani are gonna drag on, but I now expect it to be between McCain and Huckabee. The question is whether McCain can build enough momentum out of New Hampshire and also get Guliani out of the race fast enough to win it. In the end I think he will win California and a couple of other states on Super Tuesday, and then, after the couple of subsequent Southern primaries going Huckabee gain momentum in the states after that, especially Wisconsin and Virginia. Huckabee bounces back by winning Texas and the race is decided when McCain takes Pennsylvania...


Version: 2

Well...once again, I could't bear in my heart to predict a Romney or Huckabee win just yet. Instead, it seems McCain could take New Hampshire over Romney. If that happens I think he goes on to take Michigan and edges out Guliani as the main moderate contender. After Super Tuesday Guliani and Romney both drop out and it comes down to Huckabee v McCain. McCain emerges as the winner from that contest. I HOPE!


Version: 1

In a primary it's about dynamics which are very hard to predict. States put as safe for one candidate may go over-whelmingly to another. My idea is basically that Huckabee takes Iowa, Romney then wins New Hampshire but Guliani eeks out a win in Michigan. McCain drops out and Thompson does too. On Super Tuesday Romney takes only Utah and so drops out. Guliani and Huckabee battle it out till Pennsylvania which is the nail in teh coffin for Huckabee and Guliani sweeps the rest. Optimistic? Yes.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 411
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 33/35 21/35 54/70 77.1% pie 5 1 106T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 3 3 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 50 1T149
P 2016 President 50/56 32/56 82/112 73.2% pie 3 1 149T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 20/34 52/68 76.5% pie 2 1 35T362
P 2016 Governor 8/12 5/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 1 119T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 5 2 99T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 1 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 3 47T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 15/33 45/66 68.2% pie 1 46 198T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 46 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 47/52 27/52 74/104 71.2% pie 28 - 2231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 60 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 3 72 151T456
P 2010 Governor 32/37 20/37 52/74 70.3% pie 2 72 143T312
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 1 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 45/56 97/112 86.6% pie 11 0 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 4 0 28T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 0 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 19/52 61/104 58.7% pie 16 - 38T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 39/49 22/49 61/98 62.2% pie 20 - 9T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 3/3 6/6 100.0% pie 1 172 1T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 13 0 65T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 20 0 22T312
P 2004 President 51/56 39/56 90/112 80.4% pie 6 14 219T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 734/810 495/810 1229/1620 75.9% pie


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