PredictionsMock2008 Rep Presidential Primary Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-05-29 Version:23

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani1
 
McCain33
 
Romney13
 
Thompson1
 
Huckabee3
 
Other1
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Giuliani0
 
McCain0
 
Romney0
 
Thompson0
 
Huckabee0
 
Other0
 
Tossup52
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
493415
piepiepie

Analysis

McCain is the GOP nominee.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 22

McCain is the GOP nominee.


Version: 21

Final Entry:
McCain wins. God help the GOP.


Version: 20

Minor Updates following the Potomac Primaries. Huckabee is embarassing himself and should just drop out. He's going no where. McCain has won.


Version: 19

Last prediction unless Huckabee drops out. McCain wins, the GOP loses, and Huckabee gains the south. Well that's it fellow Republicans and conservatives. See you in 2012.


Version: 18

Well the dynamics have certainly changed tonight. I would be tempted to say that McCain is the winner and he probably will go on to be. However both Romney and Huckabee have vowed to fight on and with Huckabee's southern strength I think that presents an interesting situation. So lets assume for the moment that they do stay in the race.

We know that Huckabee will continue to hurt Romney by splitting conservatives allowing moderates and independents to put McCain over the top. The next few races could break down as follows. McCain is well suited to win Maryland, DC, Louisiana, and Wisconsin. However Romney does well in caucus so I think that he'll prevail in Kansas and Washington. Virginia is a tossup but Huckabee's win in West Virginia shows McCain's lock on the Virginias is not absolute. If a few McCain voters didn't go to Huckabee then Romney would have won West Virginia.

So in the end these are the next batches of predictions. If Huckabee and Romney can stay in and keep winning a few states and taking delegates all the way past 3/4 and into April then I think we could have a brokered convention on our hands. Its the best conservatives can hope for right now.


Version: 17

Alright just a few minor tweaks. We in camp Romney have a last shot to stop John McCain but the plan hinges on a few things. First off we need to win in California and Georgia. That will keep us in the game. Wins are likely in Utah, Massachusetts, Colorado, Montana, Alaska, and North Dakota. We also stand a decend change in Missouri and Delaware.

Two state that are odd balls that could be pick ups that are unexcpeted are Illinois, a very conservative state as far as GOP voters go (they did nominate Alan Keys fo the senate) and many independents will be voting Obama. So that could open up a door. Tennessee is another possibility because of its conservative leanings. Way my brother talks down in Memphis its a real tigh contest between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee.

So that's it. We see if we can get a Romney win, broker the convention, or come to terms with losing the general election with McCain's nomination. We'll see how it all goes tomorrow. I know I'll be voting for Romney here in Missouri.


Version: 16

Alright at this point my maps have been mostly wrong so I thought what the hey I'll just make a best case senerio for Romney map. It'll make me feel better if nothing else. This will be my final map pre-Super Tuesday. Now things would have to go almost perfect for this map to occur but hey I can hope.

So in this senerio Mitt Romney does really well on Super Tuesday as conservatives and the anti-McCain vote rallies around him. With Huckabee in the race and independents voting in many races I doubt this will happen but hey its my map right? So Romney comes off with a narrow win in California, Colorado, Missouri, Georgia, Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota and so on. McCain gains New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Tennessee, and so forth.

Now Romney with support and money can battle McCain all the way to the last primaries in June. Huckabee will have to drop out due to a lack of support and money. He's hopeless right now but I think he's eyeing McCain's VP spot and hoping to spoil things for Mitt. Even in this best of senerios Romney is only able to deny McCain enough delegates to broker the convention.

So that's it. I don't care how wrong it is, I like to look at it. At least Romney will have one vote in Missouri.


Version: 15

Alright at this point my maps have been mostly wrong so I thought what the hey I'll just make a best case senerio for Romney map. It'll make me feel better if nothing else. This will be my final map pre-Super Tuesday. Now things would have to go almost perfect for this map to occur but hey I can hope.

So in this senerio Mitt Romney does really well on Super Tuesday as conservatives and the anti-McCain vote rallies around him. With Huckabee in the race and independents voting in many races I doubt this will happen but hey its my map right? So Romney comes off with a narrow win in California, Colorado, Missouri, Georgia, Massachusetts, Utah, North Dakota and so on. McCain gains New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Illinois, Minnesota, Tennessee, and so forth.

Now Romney with support and money can battle McCain all the way to the last primaries in June. Huckabee will have to drop out due to a lack of support and money. He's hopeless right now but I think he's eyeing McCain's VP spot and hoping to spoil things for Mitt. Even in this best of senerios Romney is only able to deny McCain enough delegates to broker the convention.

So that's it. I don't care how wrong it is, I like to look at it. At least Romney will have one vote in Missouri.


Version: 14

Well it looks like John McCain is going to be the GOP nominee. It saddens conservatives and myself greatly. I'll be voting for Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday here in Missouri but I doubt it will do much good. To be honest I still think had this been a two man race that McCain would have lost. But with his GOP support, independents, and cross over Democrats in addition to the conservatives being divided between Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, and Giuliani, well he just got his chance.

I think this is bad news for our party but I hope I'm wrong. I am betting that he'll wrap up Super Tuesday with Romney picking up a few state and Huckabee a couple scraps. Romney may even stay in for the next few races but I doubt he'll go anywhere. The anti-McCain vote could still rally around him but with a win in Florida its hard to beat.

So this is the end, I wish my map was a little more accurate, kindof scary because I'm doing great on the Democratic prediction page.


Version: 13

Well guys I think that Rudy Giuliani is done too. It was a good try at an unconventional strategy that I thought for a time might have worked but one thing early states do show us is that precieved electibility is very important. I thought in a different kind of election year that things might have been different but oh well. We move on. Thompson has withdrawn, Huckabee is largely marginalized due to his lose in South Carolina, and tomorrow's vote in Florida will end Rudy.

That leaves us with McCain and Romney. Now I think a lot of the DC establishment folks, moderates, and so forth will get on board with McCain. However, I think that the conservatives, Republicans, and grassroots of the party will get behind Romney. That is who I'm switching to with Rudy out of the race. The Christian vote will most likely spit but it looks like we have narrowed the field down to two.

Florida, with its closed primary, will tell us a lot. If McCain wins there he'll probably be the nominee and if its Romney then I think he'll go on to battle McCain for the nomination. We'll just have to see.


Version: 12

The race has taken a definate turn tonight. Here is the current state of the race:

Iowa - Mike Huckabee
Wyoming - Mitt Romney
New Hampshire - John McCain
Michigan - Mitt Romney
Nevada - Mitt Romney
South Carolina - John McCain

We've just gotten word that Duncan Hunter has dropped out of the race. At this point with a McCain win in South Carolina I believe that Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee are done. They may each stick around for a while but they will be marginalized and run out of money soon enough. Fred more than Huckabee has been hurt by this developement but it is a serious blow to both.

I'm not yet ready to count out Rudy Giuliani. Yes I know his early showings have been horrid and it remains to be seen if he'll be effective. However, because the primary season has become compressed there is little time for candidate to switch gears after a win. Giuliani however has been in Florida since the beginning of the month and dumped a lot resources there. The others are just now starting to go there.

Florida will be make or break for Rudy. If he wins, and he could, I believe he's back in the game for the big states. If he fails then he's out. That said if he fails it will be a Romney-McCain race into Super Tuesday. Otherwise its a Romney-McCain-Giuliani race. At this point the name of the game is collecting delegates. I think that Rudy and/or Mitt will be much more able to do this.

First off Mitt sweep all sectors of the Nevada voters: conservatives, Latinos, whites, protestants, catholics, mormons, evangelicals, Republicans, and those thinking the economy and immigration were the top issues. He is still the leading candidate in terms of delegates and votes. Congressman Fred Burn from California says that Rudy is well placed to pick up Florida, New York, New Jersey, and Calfornia. We'll see what Florida brings.

McCain invested a lot in New Hampshire and South Carolina, more than any other states. He also had a lot of establishment support in both states and lots of independents. My hats off to his wins. But all the races thus far have been open primaries/caucus. The state between here and Super Tuesday - Louisiana, Florida, Hawaii, and Maine - those are closed. So are the big states on 2/5.

This race is about to get very interesting. I'm excited about where it could go. Maybe a brokered convention maybe not. We'll find out soon enough. More updates as they come.


Version: 11

Alright at this point I think the dynamics of the race are just changing way too fast for any long term sepeculation and a lot of things are now riding on what happens in Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida. Those states will shape what is to come on Super Tuesday as I will try to explain. So far the state of the race is thus:

Iowa: Mike Huckabee
Wyoming: Mitt Romney
New Hampshire: John McCain
Michigan: Mitt Romney

Romney clearly leads with the most states, most votes, and most delegates. Now at this point I think its safe to say that John McCain is done. I've maintained that McCain's support has long been with the MSM, independents, crossover Democrats, and very moderate to liberal Republicans. Michigan should have been a state in which he won like he did in 2000. Back then he won by 100,000 votes. He has lost the state by a similar amount. If he can't win here its unlikely he can win in more conservative states that are coming.

I also believe that Huckabee is a media creation. Mitt Romney won evangelicals 34% to 29%. With his populist idealism I don't think he will fair well in the coming GOP contests and may well be defeated by Thompson in South Carolina. We'll see how right I am come Saturday. I don't think Huck appeals much outside the south. From what I have heard from the base Fred, Mitt, and Rudy are the clear choice of conservatives.

Now of all this Mitt Romney has an interesting opertunity. If he can win both Nevada and South Carolina then we will win Florida and move on to tie up Super Tuesday. He'd be hard to stop. Even a second place finish in South Carolina would be good. Fred may win SC but at this point I think its too little too late. He'll probably be stuck in the south and not go much further.

Rudy is in an interesting place. He is not disliked as McCain and Huckabee are but he is also not as well recieved as Romney or Thompson amoung the base. If he loses Florida its over. I think he knows this too and he needs a win there to stay in the race. Same goes for Fred in South Carolina. But they are not out of the game just yet. We need to see what happens with the votes in both South Carolina and Florida. Those will be key.


Version: 10

Just a few alterations but I think that things are in fine shape for Rudy Giuliani. This is of course subject to change and I will continue to up date my maps as we move from race to race and the dynamics of the race change. Let's look at the results so far.

Iowa: Mike Huckabee
Wyoming: Mitt Romney
New Hampshire: John McCain
Michigan: Mitt Romney

Romney clearly leads with the most states, most votes, and most delegates. Now at this point I think its safe to say that John McCain is done. I've maintained that McCain's support has long been with the MSM, independents, crossover Democrats, and very moderate to liberal Republicans. Michigan should have been a state in which he won like he did in 2000. Back then he won by 100,000 votes. He has lost the state by a similar amount. If he can't win here its unlikely he can win in more conservative states that are coming.

It is also been reported that in Michigan there is a group of three leading evangelical leaders and they each have a different candidate. One Christian observer noted that the evangelical vote is more split than he has ever seen. I also believe that Huckabee is a media creation and may well be defeated by Thompson in South Carolina. We'll see how right I am come Saturday. I don't think Huck appeals much outside the south.

All this is just perfect for Rudy Giuliani who has been in Florida for basically the last week and a half. The others are heading to South Carolina to either recover or gain ground. The early states are divided and there is no front runner. It fits the Giuliani plan well. We shall see if he can maintain that. Even if Huckabee wins a second state Romney will still hold two or three of his own so it keeps things divided nicely. Plus I believe that while Romney wins Nevada, Rudy could place second.

On to South Carolina and Nevada!


Version: 9

Alright call it what you want but this is my new predictions map. All is subject to change of course but this is where I think we could be going. I've been busy the last few days tring to get a feel for the base voters in the GOP. Up to this point we have seen races in three states. Two of those states, Iowa and New Hampshire, were open contests. Wyoming was closed. The two produced different results. We have seen the effect that cross over Democrats, independents, and single issue Christian voters have. Michigan will be no different. The others, we'll I think things are about to get interesting.

After Michigan we start to get into closed primaries/caucuses were the base and conservative voters can be heard. Not all the Christian and evangelical vote is monolithic and real conserns about Huckabee have popped up. After talking with friends and family from Tennessee to Arizona, listening to talk radio and the callers they have, reading the conservative blogs, and talking with my local conservatives one thing is clear. McCain is not liked by the GOP base. Huckabeee is not that popular either.

The media's early dismissile of Rudy, Mitt, and Fred is so very premature. Rudy has a entrance change in Nevada and Louisiana with Florida the main prize before a Super Tuesday sweep. Romney has the money to stay in till June and Thompson is getting a fresh view from southern conservatives. I don't believe this one state away from the end buisness. It never seems to apply to McCain and Huckabee. We're leaving their friendly territory despite all the media's polls and pundits.

The Beltway keeps trying to call this election and they just can't. Its a long campign all the way to Super Tuesday. I think after that date we'll have a much better idea of what we are looking at. We'll either have a winner or we'll have just two candidates. I suspect that it could be down to Giuliani verse Huckabee. Rudy has a far better organization and is well positioned in the later February states. I have a gut feeling Thompson, Romney, and McCain will be gone.

I could be wrong, but I could very easily be right.


Version: 8

Again things are still looking good for Rudy Giuliani. I think that his national strategy may well pay off. The early states remain divided. Iowa went to Huckabee, Wyoming to Romney, New Hampshire to McCain. I believe that Romney with home state advantage could win Michigan. Maybe. Nevada is a tossup. Huckabee could take the south over Thompson, at least on Super Tuesday.

Florida will be Rudy's entrance if not Nevada. He won't win Michigan, maybe third or fourth there. But Florida is key. Many of its social conservatives are moderate. There are a lot of New Yorkers and people from New Jersey that live there now. Plus Huckabee's economic plans run counter to the buisness community both big and small.

New Hampshire and Iowa are not representative of the GOP base and they are only two states. The real race to watch will be Florida and then on Super Tuesday. The race is up in the air and anything can happen.


Version: 7

Alright we move right along with the predictions as we go. At this point we have Mike Huckabee as the winner in Iowa and Mitt Romney the winner in Wyoming. I wish the maps would let us update that information to get a more accurate view but whatever. In any case I think John McCain could go on to win New Hampshire. However, McCain has hit more money troubles and has a poorly organized campign in Michigan. I think the state will be won by Mitt Romney though Huckabee and Giuliani can make things interesting.

At this point I'm inclinded to award South Carolina to Huckabee though Thompson is going to make a last stand there and campign from now till the primary. With Romney derailed in both Iowa and New Hampshire I believe Giuliani can win Nevada and he will go on to win Florida. After that Hawaii and Maine will fall. If Rudy can clean up as I have shown here on Super Tuesday with the early field divided just as he plan called for, then I'd say the others will drop out and leave him the nominee.

Now Michigan could get interesting, Huckabee is a bad fit for the state, McCain's money and resource troubles are a hindrence, and Romney's loses in Iowa and maybe New Hampshire could provide an opening for Giuliani to win the state. Its a distinct possibility. If he does he'll win Nevada no problem and Florida. I'd like to see Rudy place second or third in New Hampshire on Tuesday but it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of the master plan.


Version: 6

Okay, I thought that Mitt Romney might win in Iowa but he did not. Mike Huckabee was the big winner. Here are the final results of the Iowa caucus:

Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 14%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4%
Duncan Hunter 1%

Mitt will really have to battle to win in Michigan and New Hampshire at this point. I have no idea who is going to win in South Carolina, its so up in the air. Wyoming is another mystery. It will all depend. Remember that Iowa is basically a Democratic state. The majority of conservative up there are single issue evangelicals that do not reperesent mainstream Christians nor Republicans. It is a 3/5 Christian state. It also nominated Pat Robertson over Bush 41 in 1988 by a similar margin in which Mitt lost to Huck.

I think this all plays very well to Rudy Giuliani. The early states that he has put vertually no resources into are almost certain to remain divided up with no clear front runner. Romney had the chance to really hurt Giuliani's plans but now that Huckabee has won it works out great. If McCain can win New Hampshire and Mitt comes back in Michigan then Giuliani is in fine shape to take Nevada. We shall see what the voters think. Five days to New Hampshire, where Romney could still win.


Version: 5

At this point I believe that this is a two man race for the GOP nomination between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Now I know the beltway, polls, and conventional wisdom all say something else but as a mainstream Republican voter I think this is a possible senerio and I want to walk through my reasoning and the time line I have laid out here.

First off I think that the there are a series of questions facing Republicans as they vote in the primaries and cacususes. These critical questions for Republicans are:

1. Who can beat Hillary Clinton in the general election?
2. Who can keep me safe and be strong on the war on terror?
3. We are likely to still have a Democratic Congress in 2009, who can fight them and stand up to Ried and Pelosi?
4. Who will fight to keep the taxes low and sure up spending in currupt Washinton DC?
5. Who is a leader in these troubled times?

Both Giuliani and Romney meet all these requirements and they both have the records to back them up. It is my belief that Huckabee and McCain are media phenomenoins and that the polling is wrong. I just don't see it in the GOP electorate. I doubt either of those two will do much. This could have been a three man race had Thompson stepped up to the plate and preformed. Note also that the map shows all tossups because I don't buy most of the polls and at this point I think its anything goes. So lets run the timeline.

Romney walks away with the win in Iowa followed by Thompson in second place and Giuliani in third. To everyone's suprise Giuliani goes on to edge out Romney in New Hampshire and Michigan. A few days later Romney claims victory in South Carolina while Giuliani wins Nevada and Florida. He also picks up Maine and Hawaii. Mitt picks up Wyoming.

On Super Tuesday Thompson carries his home state of Tennessee as well as Georgia. Huckabee remains relavent enough to win his home state of Arkansas as does McCain in Arizona. Romney picks up Massachusetts, Utah, Montana, and Alaska. Giuliani wins the remain 2/5 states just as he had hoped to do so. Following Super Tuesday only Romney remains in the race and picks up Kansas. However his loses in DC, Louisiana, and Virginia cause him to drop out and Giuliani wins the primary.

Now Romney could also win the primary. If Rudy places 5 or 6 in Iowa and New Hampshire he has real problems. He should be in the top three in both. He doesn't have to win them but be up here. If Giuliani loses Florida its done and over with. So again I believe that this has really boiled down to a two man race between Giuliani and Romney. At the end of the day I still think Rudy has the best chance, despite what the media thinks.


Version: 4

In this possible senerio no one in the GOP manages to take an early lead. In Iowa, Romney just barely edges out Mike Huckabee to claim the first win of the primaries. However, he slips in New Hampshire and McCain takes the top spot with Romney in second and Giuliani in a close third. Due to McCain's capture of New Hampshire, he manages to split the vote in Michigan with Romney enough to allow Giuliani his first win. This is followed by another Rudy win in Nevada however, with Huckabee now in a downward spiral following his lose in Iowa Romney manages to win South Carolina. Another suprise due to Huckabee's decline is that Thompson reemerges briefly to gain Wyoming. The last three conests before 2/5 in Florida, Hawaii, and Maine all see wins for Giuliani.

On Super Tuesday the nomination becomes clear. McCain only manages to carry his home state of Arizona, with Rudy in second place. Mitt Romney secures Utah, Montana, and Massachusetts but little else. In the south Huckabee still has enough influence to duke it out with Thompson. Fred carries Tennessee handily but just barely scraps by with Georgia and Alaska. Huckabee carries his home state of Arkansas but his battle with Fred allows Rudy to claim Alabama and Oklahoma, abet by very slim margins. Giuliani secures all the other Super Tuesday states including California, North Dakota, New York, Connecticut, Missouri, and so on.

Following Super Tuesday Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee all drop out. Only Romney remains to battle Rudy. Mitt does manage to gain the next contest in Kansas however he loses in Maryland, DC, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin. By March 1 Romney also drops out of the race. Giuliani wins the remain states as the only candidate left of any influence against Paul and Keyes. In March he begins work on the general election.


Version: 3

This map reflects more my current thinking that we are heading for a two-man race, which Rudy could still win in, and that we are seeing more of a Huckabust than a Huckaboom. So here is how the senerio works based on the primary timeline:

Things happen very quickly in the early states beginning with Romney's triumph over Huckabee. Mike's lose in Iowa is a serious blow for his campign that has been under fire at this point for over a month and is running seriously low on cash. Though Romney's win is narrow its enough to give him a bump to win in New Hampshire. Giuliani places second with McCain in a very close third. Romney continues his winning streak by picking up Michigan, but here he narrowly beats Giuliani who goes on to narrowly beat Mitt in Nevada and pick up his first state.

South Carolina falls to Romney as Florida, Hawaii, and Maine are all captured by Rudy. This gives both Mitt and Rudy four states going into Super Tuesday. McCain remains in the race but outside of New Hampshire and Michigan has a poor showing. Thompson, who has rebounded with Huckabee's collapse, manages to pull off a win in Wyoming before heading into Super Tuesday. He also manages to gain the second place status in South Carolina with Rudy coming in third.

Now on Super Tuesday Thompson is able to capitalize on his bounce and easily carries Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia. Romney does not fair as well as expected, picking up only Massachusetts, Utah, and Montana. Rudy cleans up all the big states and even manages to win in Oklahoma where Thompson and Romney split the opposition vote. Huckabee manages to carry his home state of Arkansas as McCain does in Arizona, although it is a narrow with Rudy a strong second. Thompson gains a suprise pick up as he carries Alaska.

Following Super Tuesday, McCain and Huckabee promply drop out of the race. McCain endorse Giuliani and Huckabee declines to endorse a candidate. As February continues Romney picks up the very next contest in Kansas but Rudy finishes the month by winning in Louisiana, DC, Maryland, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Puerto Rico. Thompson drops out not long after his defeat in Virginia. The first state with a March primary is Texas and Giuliani just barely takes the state from Romney. He also carries Rhode Island and Ohio. At this point, Romney drops out of the race and endorses Rudy.

Giuliani goes on to win all the remaining primary races as he is the only viable candidate left other than Ron Paul and Alan Keyes, both of whom remain in the race until sometime in late April to early May. However, Giuliani beings to work on the general election after Romney drops out on March 5. By this point the Democratic primary is also over and the real race begins.


Version: 2

Alright here is my new GOP anaylsis. I really do think that Mike Huckabee is a fade. He is getting a lot of media attention and love from some of the social conservatives. However, many of the mainstream Republicans have issues with his record on taxes, immigration, foriegn policy, clemency, and his over all use of more government as the governor of Arkansas. Here is how things could play out.

Mike Huckabee wins Iowa but with Mitt Romney a very close second and Thompson pulling in third. Giuliani finishes fourth and McCain fifth. With a more friendly electorate, Romney captures New Hampshire with Giuliani placing a decent second, McCain third, Thompson fourth and Huckabee fifth. In Michigan Romney and Huckabee keep the anti-Rudy support divided just enough for the mayor to gain his first victory. Giuliani's support carries over into Nevada were he comes out ahead of Romney, again plagued by Huckabee. Florida, Hawaii, and Maine all fall to Rudy. However Huckabee scores big in South Carolina with Thompson placing second, Giuliani third, and Romney fourth. Wyoming also falls to Huckabee.

On Super Tuesday Rudy cleans up. Thompson manages to stay relavent enough to beat Huckabee in Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia. Mike takes is home state of Arkansas but the two divide the support in Oklahoma allowing a Giuliani win. Romney wins Utah and McCain Arizona. In Massachusetts and Montana Rudy just barely pulls ahead of Mitt for the win. After 2/5 McCain, Thompson, and Romney drop out. Hunter, Tancrato, and Paul have all called it quits by this point as well. Only Huckabee remains and he wins Kansas.

However the rest of February is not so kind to Mike as Giuliani goes on to win in DC, Louisiana, Washington, Wisconsin, and Virginia. At this point Huckabee drops out of the race just before March leaving Rudy Giuliani the GOP nominee. The race of the states fall into line as Rudy is not the only viable candidate though Alan Keyes stays on the ballot until May.

One of many possibilities.


Version: 1

Alright this prediction is going to require a timeline to accompany it. As you can see there is a lot of division in the early states. Then Super Tuesday comes and Rudy cleans up while the other candidates drop out by the end of February.

Iowa - I think this state is Huckabee's to lose. Romney will probably place a close second. It will certainly get the primary season off with a buzz.

New Hampshire - Romney looks like he'll carry this state with Rudy a close second, just enough to keep him in the game. McCain does poor here and it puts his campign in a bad place.

Michigan - Another close Romney win with Giuliani and Huckabee not far behind. The race still remains up in the air at this point.

South Carolina - The strong evanglical vote puts Huckabee over the top here with Giuliani coming in second amoung GOP northern transplants. Romney also has a good showing as Thompson finishes fourth.

Nevada - Giuliani's first win as he just barely slides ahead of Romney and Huckabee. Rudy's status as second place helps keep in the game till this point. With poor showings everywhere, McCain throws in the towel as does Paul, Hunter, and Tancrato. McCain's supporters would most likely drift mostly to Rudy and somewhat to Mitt.

Wyoming - Huckabee wins yet another early state with Thompson placing second, Rudy third, and Mitt fourth. This state is hard to call but I feel either Huckabee or Thompson will win it.

Hawaii - Another Giuliani win with Mormon support giving Romney the number two spot.

Florida - Rudy finally shines in the Sunshine state where he has put in so much effort. Huckabee comes in second with Romney finishing third.

Maine - Giuliani takes the state handily from Romney with little threat from anyone else.

Super Tuesday - As we hit the big day we have four candidates remaining, namely Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson. Fred makes a last effort to capture the nomination by winning in the south and midwest. He manages to capture his home state of Tennessee and neighboring Georgia. Huckabee comes on strong and wins in Arkansas. However, infighing between Thompson and Huckabee supporters splits the vote in Alabama and allows Rudy a very narrow victory. Giuliani also looks posied to capture Oklahamo and moves on to do win big in the west and northeast. Romney picks up Utah and nothing more. He barely loses Massachusetts to Rudy. At the end of the day Rudy is the clear winner.

After Super Tuesday Thompson and Romney promotely drop out. In the Kansas primary, Huckabee beats Rudy by a few points but goes on to lose in Louisiana, DC, and Maryland. Since Rudy has captured 22 states and the district, Huckabee drops out of the race, completely drained of money as well. Rudy goes on to win the remaining primary as the only serious candidate left in the race.

This is just one possible senerio and I'll up date things as we go along.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie


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