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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-20 Version:14

Prediction Map
BYUmormon MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
BYUmormon MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem294
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos9
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-3-1-56262303-56
Rep+3+1+56000222179+56
Ind0000000000


Analysis

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is Romney/Bobby Jindal vs. Obama/Joe Biden. The only change I made here was lowering the Democrat percentage of CA to the 50 percents. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure. I think Arizona will have the strength to Remain Republican this year, but most other states with significant Hispanic populations are Democrat.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 15

This map is very unlikely and I will change it before the elections but this is how I think Mitt Romney could win. The economy would have to get worse by the time of the election and Romney would have to do very well in the debates. Romney's campaign would have to go smoothly, and he would have to do some serious campaigning in Pennsylvania. It is unlikely, but with enough luck and determination this could become a reality.


Version: 14

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is Romney/Bobby Jindal vs. Obama/Joe Biden. The only change I made here was lowering the Democrat percentage of CA to the 50 percents. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure. I think Arizona will have the strength to Remain Republican this year, but most other states with significant Hispanic populations are Democrat.


Version: 13

I hate to give Colorado to the Democrats, but I have to be in reality. This is certainly Romney vs. Obama. I'm still not sure who Romney will choose for vice president. I mostly just lowered percentages in states this time. This year Salt Lake county Utah is going Republican for sure.


Version: 12

This map will likely be a reality only because the American people do not realize(or choose to not listen to the fact), that Obama is piling on so much debt that anything that he does for people doesn't matter because it is just getting us deeper and deeper into debt. We need to stop the mindlessness and listen to Paul Ryan's plan. Even if it takes 20 years, its better than going bankrupt because Obama keeps spending money we don't have.


Version: 9

For now I have to say that Obama wins. Mitt Romney will almost surely be the GOP nominee, which could be a good or bad thing. At any rate us Republicans will do better this year than 2008, and hopefully more people will realize that Obama will only get more "flexible" once he doesn't have to be reelected.


Version: 8

LDS general conference on BYUtv this Sunday.


Version: 7

I am sad to say that Obama is going to win.There is too many Democrats for the Right Republicans to win. Obama is going to be a little more free in what he does after his re-election. He should have turned the speaker off when he was talking to the Russians! RRR (Republicans R Right) LDS General conference today-tomorrow(I'm probably going to get insulted a ton for that)


Version: 4

I have pretty good confidence in this map for the current conditions. Hopefully we will soon see change in the public's opinion about Barrack Obama.


Version: 3

This map assumes Romney wins the Republican nomination and has mostly only minor differences from version 2. I will stop at 7 versions.


Version: 2

This is my second version. It has only minor adjustments and assumes that Romney wins the Republican nomination. I have Massachusetts as republican because it is where Romney was a successful governor.


Version: 1

I'm not too confident about these predictions, but I do not believe that the republican nominee will be able to take down Barrack Obama. I think the republican party will have weakened its self so much that Obama will take the victory. With the economy declining perhaps it is best for him to be blamed, instead of Romney or Santorum.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:38:07 prediction Map
...except FL, for some strange reason. You don't even consider it a toss-up or a battleground or a "maybe" of any kind, eh? What's the thinking here?
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:29 prediction Map
I don't tend to do too many tossups. I might change it later, but for now I'll take a chance.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2012-04-25 @ 21:41:43 prediction Map
Well, there's only one tossup on this map, that's probably why. I certainly wouldn't pick Colorado if I was going only going to pick a single state as a tossup though.

 By: Ickey415 (--IA) 2012-04-25 @ 21:50:25 prediction Map
Right. With Mitt losing Hispanics 10 points worse than McCain did, I'd certainly not pick a 30% Hispanic state which Obama won by 9 last time as the "tossiest" of the toss-ups. My personal choice is NC, since one can never know what the local effect of the Raleigh convention will be until it's happened. I can see a local negative or a local positive resulting from it as equally likely eventualities. I suppose FL is the same the other way. And if some are seeing Rubio as the running mate... ?
-Jeff

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 01:20:14 prediction Map
I thought this was a funny prediction.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=1421

I will change some things later.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-04-26 @ 06:04:39 prediction Map
I think it is a very plausible outcome map...for something as it stands probably now or close to it with a couple of exceptions...

I might delete Iowa at this stage


 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:03:11 prediction Map
You think the link is? I think the link is very unlikely, in fact it is impossible. Are you talking about mine?

Last Edit: 2012-04-26 @ 12:06:09

 By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-04-26 @ 12:09:46 prediction Map
Delete Iowa? What do you mean delete it?


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 16 164 466T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 12/33 41/66 62.1% pie 3 195 241T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 195 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 39/52 11/52 50/104 48.1% pie 9 - 71T231
Aggregate Predictions 130/152 70/152 200/304 65.8% pie



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