Mitt Romney is the Republican Michael Dukakis: an elitist technocrat from Massachusetts, politically tin-eared and unlikable. Flawed though Barack Obama may be as a president, he does have more of a natural constituency than Romney.

My prediction is that Romney's inherent lack of an appeal, combined with massive negative advertising coming from the Democrats, will depress the conservative vote. This will be especially true in the South, where Romney's Mormon religion and his flip-flops on social issues will be additional factors in his inability to generate support. By contrast, the region's large African-American population will enthusiastically support the reelection of the first black president. As a result, Romney is likely to suffer a surprising number of losses there, including in states previously considered "safe" for the GOP.

The bottom line is not that Romney's candidacy will drive conservatives into voting for Obama. Rather, an unusual number of conservatives will not vote at all. The final outcome—and it is an unfortunate one for the nation—will be Barack Obama claiming as much of a mandate as is possible amid the Washington gridlock.