PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-07 Version:114

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem279
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos69
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 154

Romney poised for a strong close. Takes first lead here since late last year. Hurricane Sandy's impact is unknown at this point. One week left till election day.


Version: 152

The Romney roll continues.


Version: 148

Hang on. Less than a month to go, and this one's going down to the wire.


Version: 147

Race continues to be very close in the popular vote, with Obama still winning in EV.


Version: 146

While Romney is ahead in the horserace numbers, Obama continues and even expands his lead in the EV count. As we've seen throughout the race Obama has maintained an advantage in the electoral college that is stronger than what the national popular vote poll would suggest. Romney wins the popular vote by 1-2% while Obama comes out plenty ahead in the swing states. Election shocker.


Version: 145

Election shocker: Romney carries popular vote, Obama wins electoral college vote. Obama re-elected narrowly.


Version: 122

The race is as close as it has been all year.


Version: 119

Is Romney enjoying his post Ryan bump, or is this suddenly a real race once again?


Version: 59

Obama v. Romney


Version: 58

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 57

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 56

Obama v. Romney


Version: 55

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 54

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 53

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 52

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 51

Obama retains a sizable lead over Romney.


Version: 50

Obama v. Romney


Version: 49

Obama continues to have a solid lead over Romney.


Version: 48

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 47

Obama v. Romney


Version: 46

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 45

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 44

Obama v. Romney


Version: 43

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 42

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 41

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 40

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 39

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 38

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 37

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 36

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 35

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 34

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 33

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 32

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 31

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 30

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 29

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 28

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 27

Obama beats Romney.


Version: 26

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 25

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 24

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 23

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 22

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 21

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 20

Romney v. Obama: A very close race, Obama barely wins, carry North Carolina by another close margin after DNC convention.


Version: 19

Happy New Year! 2012 is finally here, and Iowa is only two days away. This is my first map of the new year and if Gingrich is the GOP nominee, he gets shellacked by Obama. Obama re-elected by wide margin, but still not as good as his 2008 run.


Version: 18

Romney v. Obama. In a close race Romney swings important key states his way and wins decisively.


Version: 17

Obama v. Romney. Romney wins in a close race, but wins decisively.


Version: 16

Romney edges Obama in a very close election.


Version: 15

Romney v. Obama. In a very close race, Obama loses re-election. This is tipping point scenario for Romney, where every a close race goes his way.


Version: 14

Obama v. Romney. Obama still outpacing Romney by a wider electoral margin than would be indicated by his national pollign numbers.


Version: 13

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 12

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 11

Obama v. Romney.


Version: 10

Romney v. Obama. Obama wins comfortably.


Version: 9

Romney v. Obama.


Version: 8

Obama v. Romney. Romney improves on John McCain's performance in '08 but still get shellacked, and runs worse than the generica Republican would.


Version: 7

Obama v. Romney. Romney does better against Obama than Perry, still loses.


Version: 6

Obama v. Perry.


Version: 5

Obama v. Perry.


Version: 4

Obama v. Perry. Obama wins easily, but by a smaller margin than in 2008.


Version: 3

Obama v. Perry. Obama wins comfortably. Perry runs poorly in key areas.


Version: 2

Obama v. Perry. When Obama is matched against Perry, Obama wins decisively. Obama is able to pull in most of the swing states he won in 2008, and while winning fewer EVs than in 2008 his margin is comfortable.


Version: 1

Obama v. Generic Republican. GOP Primary is still too close and in flux to determine a candidate.

2012 resembles 2000 and 2004 election more than 2008 as Obama is forced to defend turf he won easily in 2008. In a very close election Obama is defeated and yet manages to win the popular vote. Third parties take up a significant chunk of votes swinging key states.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 239
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 6 2 74T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 28/35 63/70 90.0% pie 49 1 16T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 49 1 23T272
P 2020 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 111 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 65 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 19 21 51T293
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 10 130T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T372
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T300
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T106
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T103
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 816/884 586/884 1402/1768 79.3% pie



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