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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-12 Version:9

Prediction Map
thornestorm MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
thornestorm MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem348
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep179
 
Ind0
 
Tos12
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-10-11283348-11
Rep+10+11000222179+11
Ind0000000000


Analysis

So now we know it's Romney/Ryan - it's also important to know why this came about. It is mainly a result of the failure of Romney's team to make this a referendum on the state of the economy. They were hoping to emphasize the present situation, and if people were unhappy they should vote for Romney. But Romney's problems with Bain capital and their out-sourcing policies made Romney appear to be the wrong type of change, and this allowed Obama to open-up what appears to be about a 7% lead(excluding ras. and gallup). With his former strategy at a dead-end, he needed to dramatically change the election paradigm.

Romney has done this by choosing Ryan. He has given up any pretense about moderating policies to appeal to the center. He is hoping to maximize his base turnout and perhaps persuade some that entitlement cuts and changes, tax cuts for the wealthy, and increased military spending are the way to stimulate economic growth. Messaging strategy analysis by Democracy Corps indicates that a considerable majority of the American people don't believe or like these policies, and it seems likely that this strategy will cost him far more votes than he gains. As a result, I believe Obama's edge will balloon to about 10%, 54.5 - 44. Interestingly, this may not gain him any more electoral votes than an approximately 7% victory, but it would allow him to win battleground states by a larger margin.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: canuck777 (R-NV) 2012-08-12 @ 21:53:56 prediction Map
Indiana and Georgia should be tossups and Missouri should be red.

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-08-13 @ 22:26:07 prediction Map
Canuck777 - you may be right. Since there is no advertising going on in those states, I figured Romney's lead must be in the 7-10% range, and similarly in Arizona. So even if
several points were knocked off that margin Romney would still win by a small amount. But if Obama does win the popular vote by about 10%, any or all of Indiana, Georgia, Missouri, or Arizona could go Obama's way.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-14 @ 09:24:01 prediction Map
LOL -- still ANOTHER prediction of a Democratic wave election that returns Nancy to the Speakers chair!

LOLOLOLOL! If Tea Party views weren't banned at the forum, someone there would be asking if there was a single person here who saw the 2010 wave coming -- and, no, I don't mean after Labor Day; I mean the day DemocratTax was passed in March!

Unreality has a liberal bias!

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-08-23 @ 03:43:49 prediction Map
WhyteRain - Perhaps a relatively small Democratic wave before, but it is growing by the day. Akin's comments have not only made it likely that McCaskill will win in MO, but has opened up what could be a terrible discussion for Republicans. They were quietly advocating for no abortion even in the case of rape or incest, and Ryan and Romney had signed on to this. It is hard to believe this won't alienate a number of persuadable voters, something they can ill afford to do. It is apparent they think they can no longer win running a conventional campaign on the issues; therefore they have resorted to outright lying. They are lying about Obama cutting $716 billion from Medicare that would go to seniors, they are lying about Obama eliminating the work requirement in welfare, they are lying about "death panels" in Obamacare, etc. From a standpoint of "victory at all costs" they probably have no choice, as Romney has nothing positive in his background to run on, and Ryan's budget plans are polling poorly. Romney's lies backed by nearly unlimited money are unlikely to work as there is too much time before the election, and the scrutiny is so extreme in a presidential election that his lies will be exposed and his money will be of only limited help. But this will be a good test of whether lies + tons of money can win.

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-23 @ 08:53:23 prediction Map
This will be a good test of whether the most liberal of the main GOP primary candidates can beat a president who presided over the worst economic performance since Hoover.

I'll bet even a Eastern Liberal Establishmenter like Romney can win this one.

What we have in 2012 is a rerun of 1980, except that instead of nominating Reagan, the GOP nominated GHW Bush.

Last Edit: 2012-08-23 @ 08:54:18

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-08-23 @ 14:57:47 prediction Map
I like the comparison with 1980 and GWBsuh vs Carter....what would that have been...well more southern states for Carter for sure but I feel that GWBush would have still won...however, Obama is no Carter as people generally like hum while Carter was milktoast in that category.

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-08-24 @ 00:26:51 prediction Map
Since the end of the Bush recession in the middle of '09, about 4.5 million private sector jobs have been created. Part of the reason these numbers aren't better is because Obama inherited the worst economic mess since the Great Depression. Europe, Japan, and India are also going through major problems, a somewhat similar global situation to the '30's.

Romney wasn't the most liberal of the GOP candidates - he ran as a "severe conservative". In a sense it didn't matter who won the GOP primary - all they were doing was auditioning for who would read the conservative script handed to them, just like McCain did. He had to disavow all his previous moderate positions, as has Romney. The GOP has moved so far to the right, Reagan could no longer win the nomination - he would be destroyed for anything remotely moderate in his platform. And even if Reagan was the nominee, he couldn't win with anything close to Romney's platform, in part because of changing racial demographics. The "southern strategy", used so effectively from Nixon thru BushII, may be about done.

Last Edit: 2012-08-24 @ 00:28:41

 By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-08-24 @ 08:45:49 prediction Map
thornstorm, you sound like you've been drinking the Kool-Aid, but go ahead, tell us one major position that Reagan took in 1980 that would would make him unnominateable by the GOP in 2012.

Every four years, the MSM gets the Democrats and Republicans to nominate their most far-Left candidates. In 2004, the Dems nominated their most far-Left senator; in 2008, same thing. In 2008, the GOP nominated it's 5th-most liberal senator. I'd like to write a counterfactual about the 2008 election where the GOP nominates its most conservative senator while the Democrats nominate their 5th-most conservative senator: That would be a race between Jim DeMint (SC) and Evan Bayh (IN).

As far as the "Southern Strategy", you act like the Democrats never had one -- like they never ran simultaneously as segregationists in the South and integrationists in the North. The essence of the GOP's "Southern Strategy" was that they wouldn't call Southerners moral lepers for supporting Democratic Party policies for decades. I well recall the 1970 Texas senate race between Lloyd Bentsen and GHW Bush when the Democrats were BRAGGING to voters how all 20 of THEIR Texas Congressmen voted AGAINST the "Open Housing Act of 1968" while both Bush and the other Texas GOP Congressman voted FOR it.

Last Edit: 2012-08-24 @ 08:52:51

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-11-30 @ 01:28:12 prediction Map
Ok, I'll tell you one. Ronald Reagan was all in favor of raising taxes, and he did so many times. Also, if he had any intellectual honesty, when asked if he would take $10 in program cuts for every dollar in revenue increases, he would have raised his hand. Notice that during the primary debate when that question was asked, not a single candidate raised his hand, showing how extreme the Republican primary electorate is.
Romney won the nomination by moving to the right of Gingrich and Perry, and I was shocked there was any room there. He had reinvented himself as a "severe conservative" and it worked. But in the general election, it was the path to nowhere.
He was losing badly as the conservative message at the presidential level is now simply a loser. So in the 1st debate he reinvented himself as "moderate Mitt", and it allowed him to close the gap a few points.
But he still lost by about 4% in the popular vote meaning about 5 million votes, and lost huge in the electoral college. As for the Southern Strategy, Romney did terrific with the White vote, winning it 59-39. But minorities were 28% of the electorate and Romney lost them far too badly to win the election. The strategy the Democrats used pre-1968 is irrelevant; it is not what they use now. It is however what the Republicans use, and with the minority chunk of the electorate increasing with every election, the Southern Strategy appears at a dead end.
But given where the majority appears to be on economic/environmental/social policy and where the Republican party is, they simply can't appeal to a majority of the electorate. And if they change their positions on social policy much, they lose far too much of their base. Perhaps the Republican party has no place to go and has to hope for Democrats to screw up things so badly the electorate will turn to Republicans regardless of their issue positions.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-12-01 @ 15:01:13 prediction Map
Neither party has been static in how it runs campaigns and what issues they stand for...embracing the civil rights by national democrats cost them the south for a generation but now with the increase in minority voters they have solidified large urban states and are making inroads in southern states like Virginia, FLorida where large numbers of northerners and minorities live, next to fall without changes in national GOP are Georgia and Texas....

But then again many very white states voted Democratic...Vermont, Maine, Iowa and MN all are 85-90 % plus white and based on their own historical ethnicities voted for the Democrats yet again...

change will come and it will be interesting to see how and where it develops...

 By: thornestorm (G-CA) 2012-12-02 @ 23:02:43 prediction Map
Agreed dnul. Beginning in 1968, the Southern Strategy, given the demographic make-up of the country, made the Republicans nearly unbeatable at the presidential level. But now with minorities making up 28% of the electorate and increasing, it may be unworkable. With the % of Whites voting for Democratic presidential candidates stable since 1992 at between 39 and 43%, Republicans seem unlikely to increase their vote total there. That means they must do much more to appeal to minorities, but how and not jeopardize their current coalition is the question. The Republicans have lost 4 of the last 6 presidential elections in electoral landslides and 5 of the last 6 in the popular vote. And since the demographic make-up of the country is changing in favor of the Democrats, it is up to the Republicans to make strategy changes.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 1 0 369T
P 2014 Senate 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 1 1 200T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 14/36 42/72 58.3% pie 2 0 211T
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 0 47T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 2 0 63T
P 2008 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 0 247T
Aggregate Predictions 251/277 169/277 420/554 75.8% pie


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