So now we know it's Romney/Ryan - it's also important to know why this came about. It is mainly a result of the failure of Romney's team to make this a referendum on the state of the economy. They were hoping to emphasize the present situation, and if people were unhappy they should vote for Romney. But Romney's problems with Bain capital and their out-sourcing policies made Romney appear to be the wrong type of change, and this allowed Obama to open-up what appears to be about a 7% lead(excluding ras. and gallup). With his former strategy at a dead-end, he needed to dramatically change the election paradigm.

Romney has done this by choosing Ryan. He has given up any pretense about moderating policies to appeal to the center. He is hoping to maximize his base turnout and perhaps persuade some that entitlement cuts and changes, tax cuts for the wealthy, and increased military spending are the way to stimulate economic growth. Messaging strategy analysis by Democracy Corps indicates that a considerable majority of the American people don't believe or like these policies, and it seems likely that this strategy will cost him far more votes than he gains. As a result, I believe Obama's edge will balloon to about 10%, 54.5 - 44. Interestingly, this may not gain him any more electoral votes than an approximately 7% victory, but it would allow him to win battleground states by a larger margin.

Obama - 51%
Romney - 47%
Other - 2%

The momentum Romney had after the 1st debate has subsided, and Obama has whatever momentum created after the 3rd debate. Polls are probably not fully picking up the Latino vote, nor fully accounting for the growing cell-phone population. Battleground polling looks very bad for Romney, he is no longer clearly winning any of them. North Carolina is now very close, but Romney probably ekes out a victory. Florida is also very close, but Obama probably wins. Neither really matters because Obama is winning all the rest and thus comfortably wins.

I am now assuming less than 2% margin as toss-up, 2-7% leans, and above 7% as solid.

So now we know it's Romney/Ryan - it's also important to know why this came about. It is mainly a result of the failure of Romney's team to make this a referendum on the state of the economy. They were hoping to emphasize the present situation, and if people were unhappy they should vote for Romney. But Romney's problems with Bain capital and their out-sourcing policies made Romney appear to be the wrong type of change, and this allowed Obama to open-up what appears to be about a 7% lead(excluding ras. and gallup). With his former strategy at a dead-end, he needed to dramatically change the election paradigm.

Romney has done this by choosing Ryan. He has given up any pretense about moderating policies to appeal to the center. He is hoping to maximize his base turnout and perhaps persuade some that entitlement cuts and changes, tax cuts for the wealthy, and increased military spending are the way to stimulate economic growth. Messaging strategy analysis by Democracy Corps indicates that a considerable majority of the American people don't believe or like these policies, and it seems likely that this strategy will cost him far more votes than he gains. As a result, I believe Obama's edge will balloon to about 10%, 54.5 - 44. Interestingly, this may not gain him any more electoral votes than an approximately 7% victory, but it would allow him to win battleground states by a larger margin.

As to where the election stands today, it's over.

The latest Pennsylvania poll showed Obama up by 11. This seemed rather optimistic for Obama, until we found out neither side is advertising there. It's not fatal for Republicans to lose Pennsylvania, but to not even be competing there with more than 3 months to go means they must be down by about 10%. This is about the margin Obama won by in '08, and suggests we would see a similar result across the country. Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia would all go Obama's way, and he would comfortably win reelection. North Carolina and Florida would be very close, but irrelevant.

So to win, Romney must substantially change the direction of the campaign. But how? He isn't the most charismatic or likable person in the world. He has no foreign policy experience and his recent world tour was much less than wildly successful, with numerous serious gaffes. He has been running a relentless negative campaign for months, to seemingly very little effect. It seems as if swing voters are saying they know the seriousness of the situation and they want solutions. The main solution he offers is the Ryan plan, but this appears to be very unpopular. Tax cuts for the wealthy, increased military spending, cuts in medicaid, turning medicare into a voucher system, cutting the discretionary part of the budget - these are not things the people want. And since he is running as a "severe conservative", his position on social issues is too extreme for many, including women and latinos. And he has numerous never-ending problems which keep gnawing at his credibility and support. So it's not at all clear where Romney can try to get more votes and close the gap with Obama. Perhaps it comes down to hoping Obama has some terrible missteps in the debates or that the economy dramatically deteriorates.

Obama 53.5% Romney 45%

The economy is and will remain the decisive issue. I am assuming monthly job creation will average in the 150-200k range. Varying much in either direction could dramatically change the election. Romney's strategy appears to be to run a massively negative campaign and talk about how he would be better for the economy. He talks of supporting the Ryan budget plan, which would cut taxes benefiting mainly the wealthy, change Medicare to a voucher program, and would dramatically cut domestic discretionary spending; small wonder Ryan's budget plan, according to Democracy Corps research, polls very poorly. With Romney boxed in by the right and unable to reach out to the center, with the economy continuing its modest recovery, with his huge problem with Latinos and women, and with the fact that Romney is hardly a charismatic campaigner, it is difficult to see how he can win. He needs the U.S. economy to seriously slow or even enter recession to have much of a chance.

Obama 50.5% Santorum 48%

Ladies and gentleman, after watching Santorum's huge win in Kansas, I believe Gingrich's candidacy is dead and the far right of the party has coalesced around the man who will be the eventual nominee. He is about as close to what they want as they are likely to get, and Romney is about as far from that as possible. Santorum has great strength in the midwest and soon to be in the south, and Romney is more or less limited to the northeast, parts of the west, and the west coast. Romney was never what the base wanted, his conversion to conservatism was never really believed, and the revelation that he supported the individual mandate at the federal level in '09 is probably the final straw. Santorum will soon have plenty of money, and after he starts amassing many victories and delegates, even a majority of the super delegates will support him.

This general election prediction is based on the idea that Santorum will greatly motivate his base and turn several per cent of the white vote to the republicans. But the democratic base will also be heavily motivated, and the Latino vote will go even more heavily than usual to Obama. I see this sort of map as a best case scenario for the "southern strategy", and after Santorum loses, the republican party may finally have to bow to changing demographic realities and start tailoring their messaging more to minorities.

Obama vs. Santorum 56-42.5%

Santorum is doing everything he can to win the religious extremist/tea party vote, and he is having some success. He also is popular in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. It is conceivable he could consolidate most of the non-Romney vote and become the nominee. However, the rhetoric that would help him so much in the primaries would be devastating to him in the general, and as his candidacy would excite the republican base it would also mobilize the democratic base. He would do terribly among independents and moderates, handing Obama a very easy win.

But at this point, unless anyone runs out of money, I believe no one can get enough delegates to win and this thing is headed to a contested convention. Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich each has strengths with different sections of the republican electorate, and Ron Paul will continue to get 10-15% of the vote and pile up delegates, so it's very difficult to say with any certainty who will be the eventual nominee.

The Republican scorched-earth primary campaign burns on, destroying both Romney's and Gingrich's chances of winning a
general election. This is an Obama vs Romney map reflecting Gingrich "going nuclear" on Romney and recent revelations about
Romney's tax records. The overseas bank accounts will certainly not help Romney's cause, nor will the behavior of Bain Capital. The fact that he has released only 2 years of tax returns begs the question why won't he release many previous years of returns. His idea of illegal aliens deporting themselves is ridiculous, and his extreme position on illegal immigration makes it unlikely he will even reach McCain's low level of Latino support. And Gingrich's superpac bringing up Romney's association with a company that committed medicare fraud is only beginning to get air time. The primary campaign will continue for months with Romney and Gingrich trying to do maximum damage to each other. The establishment and tea party wings of the Republican party are in open warfare against each other, leaving it questionable if they can ever fully heal. And all of this makes it ever more unlikely Romney can win independents and moderates in a general election campaign. For now, I see the general election as Obama 55% to Romney's 43.5%.

On the basis of Gingrich's huge win in South Carolina, it's time to do an Obama vs. Gingrich map. Gingrich is doing so well because of the red meat he is throwing the conservative base. His taking of extreme conservative stances on issues and his scathing attacks on the media are exactly what they want to hear.

However, this does nothing to address his many ethics flaws, which we can be sure will be told to us over and over by Romney attack ads. If Gingrich can survive and win, he will be a badly wounded general election nominee. And those extreme positions and
super-heated rhetoric he espoused will be poisonous to many moderates and independents. I see Obama winning 55% - 43.5%

More changes in the topsy-turvy Republican race. Cain, for a short time the front runner, is out. Romney, who about a month or 2 ago looked like he was going to run away with the race, is fading. His interview and debate performances have not been good, and neither has his attitude toward even moderately tough questions. His candidacy is wearing poorly with time. In Cain's place we now have Gingrich, but on numerous accounts he seems fatally flawed. His insult of poor people will help during the primary but probably cost him during the general election, if he makes it. So at the moment, given Romney's fading and Gingrich's past and issue positions, I see Obama winning pretty easily with the Republican getting 45-46% of the vote.

With a year to go, some things are becoming a little clearer.
The first is that the 2010 election cycle mentality is clearly over, as the discussion is now about jobs and the economy and not much on debt. Another is that there is at least some clarity about the Republican nomination. Romney is a potent force with about 25% of the electorate, and Cain may be his chief rival. But the Republican nominee may not matter that much. 3 months ago, perhaps Obama was a 50-50 shot at best. But with the focus on the economy and him pushing his jobs package as well as doing small things by executive order to help the people and Republicans not putting forth anything clear and positive, Obama seems to have opened up at least a small lead of 3-6% on Romney, who appears to be the Republicans strongest candidate. In the critical state of Ohio, without which no Republican has won the presidency, Obama leads by 9. In addition, Ohio's anti-union bill supported by Romney was defeated with 61% against. The people of Ohio will not forget this fight and there will be at least some carryover in 2012. Admittedly much can change in a year, but with the people generally wanting government to do more about jobs and the economy and with Republicans ideologically prevented from using the government to intervene much, I see the election playing out pretty much the same as it did in 2008.