Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-17 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	297
Rep	241
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	247
Rep	190
Ind	0
Tos	101

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-62	25	2	297	-62
Rep	+4	+1	+62	0	0	0	22	2	179	+62
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
95	49	38	5	3

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

Ohio, Florida and Iowa are pure toss ups but Ohio could tilt Obama because of the auto-bailout being popular there and the good economy there and in Iowa. The housing market and Cuban Americans could tilt Florida in Romney's favor but it's still razor close.
Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire lean Obama because of the relatively good economies there.
Nevada and Colorado have high Hispanic populations that could make the difference in a tight race for President Obama.
North Carolina was only won in 2008 by about 14000 votes and black turnout is not gonna be as high this year as last time. And gay marriage could come back to haunt the pres. in this social conservative state.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	40/56	93/112	83.0%	1	34	260	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	20/35	51/70	72.9%	2	5	241	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	34	147	T	293
2018 Senate	31/35	16/35	47/70	67.1%	2	1	334	T	483
2016 President	48/56	30/56	78/112	69.6%	3	0	325	T	678
2016 Senate	29/34	16/34	45/68	66.2%	3	0	277	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	4/12	12/24	50.0%	2	91	164	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	165	72	T	112
2014 Senate	32/36	21/36	53/72	73.6%	5	2	158	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	9/36	35/72	48.6%	4	48	281	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	21	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	2	81	314	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	11/33	40/66	60.6%	5	17	252	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	1	120	157	T	228
Aggregate Predictions	365/416	220/416	585/832	70.3%