Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	252
Rep	286
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	201
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	131

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-8	-1	-107	21	2	252	-107
Rep	+8	+1	+107	0	0	0	22	2	179	+107
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

I predict the election will come down to Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Those will be the four closest states.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 57

I would love it if Ohio was called early for Obama, then Romney won Wisconsin to win the election...The reaction on the left would be priceless.

Version: 55

A potential Romney victory without Ohio - NH isn't needed here either.

Wisconsin is another state that Romney has the potential to win.

Version: 54

Version: 49

I predict the election will come down to Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Those will be the four closest states.

Version: 48

Romney/Ryan vs Obama/Biden

Version: 46

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Ayotte

Version: 41

My first map with Romney as the presumptive nominee!

Romney/McDonnell vs. Obama/Biden

Version: 37

Romney/Martinez vs. Obama/Biden

Unemployment at 8.2% on Election Day.

Version: 32

Why do people keep putting NH as red?

Version: 31

Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination and selects Jim Demint as his VP.

Many are predicting that America is entering into another recession, and despite being a great campaigner, I don't know how Obama's going to win this when the entire campaign will be on his record as President, which most Americans disapprove of.

Version: 25

A possible Perry/McDonnell vs. Obama/Biden map.

Version: 24

Giuliani/Rubio vs. Obama/Biden

Version: 22

Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Biden

Today, a Gallup poll shows Romney on top by 2 points. Great news for Romney. It is my belief America will have a double-dip recession, and while I think Obama will still be somewhat viable on election today, the addition of Rubio on the ticket for Romney will energize the Tea Party enough to give Romney a pretty comfortable victory.

Version: 21

Romney/Rubio vs. Obama/Biden

Question for people: Why do so many have Illinois at 60% for Obama? Obama just barely reached 60% in 2008, and 2012 will probably not be as good for him as 2008 was. On top of that, the state did have a Republican trend in 2010, sending a moderate Republican to the seat Obama held only a few years ago and almost electing a conservative Governor. I'm not trying to suggest Illinois will be close, but I see it around 56-57% Obama, not over 60%.

Version: 18

Romney/McDonnell vs. Obama/Biden

Version: 16

Obama/Biden vs. Perry/McDonnell

Version: 15

At this point, I think a GOP-landslide is much more likely than an Obama-landslide. It appears America is headed into another recession, and I just can't see Obama being able to successfully defend his policies enough to be reelected with 70% of Americans believe our nation is on the wrong track.

Version: 11

Order of State's Flipping:
1. Indiana (Obviously, it's the only state that's pretty certain to flip)
2. North Carolina
3. Ohio
4. New Hampshire
5. Florida
6. Pennsylvania
7. Nevada
8. Iowa
9. Virginia
10. Michigan

Meh? I feel like I'm forgetting a crucial state.

Version: 5

This is my map assuming there was absolutely no campaigning, and the election was today. Surprisingly enough, it a 269-269 tie. I think this scenario is also pretty realistic. Of course, the GOP nominee would win with this.

Version: 4

Bachmann/Portman vs. Obama/Biden, with Obama's approval rating at 43% on election day.

Version: 3

A narrow-Obama win scenario against Romney. 47% job approval.

Version: 2

This is a Romney win right before it'd "break wide open". I wonder if New Jersey would become close at all if Christie was chosen as VP.

Version: 1

My first prediction! :) It'll be interesting to look back on this prediction after the election and see how close I was - my bet is there will be one state I'm completely off on. Let's see which it is. ;)

This scenario is Romney vs. Obama. I discounted running mates because right now I really have no clue who Romney would choose. I'd be shocked if this election weren't a toss-up, but I just don't see economic conditions improving enough for Obama to be reelected. The economy debate will be huge for Romney.

The state I think will change the most is New Hampshire. Romney is a great candidate for this state, and is already spending resources there. Polls currently have him ahead outside the margin of error, and I expect him to be outside the margin of error on election day there as well.

Not sure how close some states will be, like Washington and Arizona, so I just put this as "Lean". I played with my emotions too much last go-around - this time I'm going to try and get it as spot on as possible. Doesn't mean there won't be some fun "What-If" scenarios from time to time.

Version History

62: 2012-11-05 @ 22:52:56 61: 2012-11-01 @ 20:47:43 60: 2012-10-28 @ 11:18:46 59: 2012-10-26 @ 12:48:37 58: 2012-10-25 @ 02:49:08 57: 2012-10-20 @ 12:39:45 56: 2012-10-12 @ 13:51:45 55: 2012-10-11 @ 01:08:41 54: 2012-10-09 @ 17:40:08 53: 2012-10-08 @ 10:39:19 52: 2012-09-27 @ 22:34:11 51: 2012-09-18 @ 01:29:56 50: 2012-08-26 @ 03:14:03 49: 2012-08-19 @ 16:42:01 48: 2012-08-08 @ 14:58:26 47: 2012-08-01 @ 20:39:48 46: 2012-07-05 @ 14:02:10 45: 2012-06-24 @ 22:32:28 44: 2012-06-08 @ 17:43:44 43: 2012-05-14 @ 19:18:21 42: 2012-04-20 @ 12:58:35 41: 2012-04-11 @ 15:55:07 40: 2012-03-30 @ 14:08:14 39: 2012-03-22 @ 12:29:54 38: 2012-01-13 @ 17:37:06 37: 2012-01-08 @ 13:48:21 36: 2011-12-27 @ 20:58:03 35: 2011-12-14 @ 18:22:25 34: 2011-11-04 @ 15:43:05 33: 2011-10-26 @ 21:47:02 32: 2011-10-08 @ 10:48:42 31: 2011-10-02 @ 12:38:29 30: 2011-09-26 @ 18:14:12 29: 2011-09-24 @ 13:22:48 28: 2011-09-17 @ 17:13:54 27: 2011-09-11 @ 14:38:19 26: 2011-09-05 @ 14:22:45 25: 2011-08-31 @ 18:52:13 24: 2011-08-26 @ 19:51:20 23: 2011-08-25 @ 23:30:47 22: 2011-08-22 @ 17:53:34 21: 2011-08-21 @ 13:33:57 20: 2011-08-19 @ 21:48:02 19: 2011-08-14 @ 14:22:49 18: 2011-08-13 @ 19:24:17 17: 2011-08-10 @ 23:18:25 16: 2011-08-09 @ 12:48:46 15: 2011-08-08 @ 18:54:40 14: 2011-08-07 @ 17:35:12 13: 2011-08-04 @ 14:16:09 12: 2011-08-03 @ 00:24:15 11: 2011-08-01 @ 16:14:29 10: 2011-07-31 @ 23:59:38 9: 2011-07-30 @ 12:54:03 8: 2011-07-29 @ 11:25:56 7: 2011-07-27 @ 15:49:37 6: 2011-07-26 @ 11:05:04 5: 2011-07-25 @ 12:14:21 4: 2011-07-24 @ 11:55:28 3: 2011-07-23 @ 21:46:50 2: 2011-07-22 @ 11:02:49 1: 2011-07-21 @ 00:12:20 View Version