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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-29 Version:22

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain


Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE): 50%
Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Paul Ryan (R-WI): 47%
Other: 3%

There are two ways this election could play out at this point depending on how the American people decide to make their choice.

1. The electorate will judge the race on our anemic economy and thus have a referendum on Obama's policies and presidency. Here Mitt Romney wins on a protest vote much as what happened in 2010.

2. The electorate will judge the race on incumbency and thus whether not Mitt Romney is a preferred alternative to the current administration. In this case Obama is reelected as people won't see much value in changing.

At the moment the second outcome is the most likely.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-09-29 @ 16:34:49 prediction Map
The problem of judging Obama on his performance is that many see the GOP 'no' congress as the reason Obama could not get anything passed, a partial truth in my mind but enough for many to blieve it is not obama's fault.

But I agree with you CR that generally speaking they the public are trying to choose between two alternatives....

 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2012-10-01 @ 12:10:19 prediction Map
Hola, Amigo!!!

Hope you are well, CR!!!

Because there is such a huge amount of data I have collected and am reporting, I have organized the links to all of this stuff in one "one-stop-shop-till-you-drop" link over at BLOGGER.

All of the latest goodies are there. Stop by, grab a link, bring a cup of java with you.

Yes, Bonncaruso's nightly BATTLEGROUND REPORTS, ala 2008, are in full swing, but they are too html intensive to post here without a lot of headache.

Go to the link, getcher goodies!!!

shalom, y'all,


 By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-02 @ 20:42:25 prediction Map
Greetings Bonn!

I'm well. Busy busy busy but well. I hope things are going great for you across the ocean. I really enjoyed the read on your blog though I confess I have not had time to get through all of it. I really enjoyed the reads on Missouri. More goodies to behold I have no doubt.

Again hope things are well and drop in any time! Shalom!


 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-10-03 @ 07:44:10 prediction Map
Hi ConservRep! How have you been doing recently? Sorry I haven't been on here for a while.

So the race has surprisingly been focused on Romney instead of Obama like you just said. That is usually not the case in presidential elections, but some reason it is this time. It seems that Obama's campaign has done a terrific job so far deflecting all the attention from Obama on to Romney, much to my surprise.

As of now it looks like Obama is in good shape. However that doesn't mean a thing.

Carter was leading Reagan by about the same amount in 1980, and Dukakis was up on Bush Sr. in 1988. I think Ford was up on Carter too in 1976. Bill Clinton was considered to be in a virtual dead heat as well in both 1992 and 1996. Bush Jr. didn't really have a comfortable lead in either 2000 or 2004.

This election is far from over. Obama still does have high negatives and there is still a quite large anti-Obama sentiment here in America right now. The question is how large the anti-Romney segment is large as the anti-Obama one or not. So far much to my surprise the anti-Romney sentiment has been more pronounced than the anti-Obama one, and that doesn't very happen very often in politics especially when all the negative focus is on the challenger and not the incumbent.

You're right ConservRep it looks like this election will be decided on who's worse instead of who's better, at least for now: whether it be Romney or Obama. As they always say the "least of all evils" unfortunately. It's a crying shame that America's politics has gotten to this point...

The debates could very well decide this election as well.

As for your map I think CO still goes for Obama in this particular scenario, and probably IA as well. IA has been a really difficult state for me to read but I now think Obama has at least a slight edge there as well. WI seems to be very close to a "lean" margin right now too.

FL, NC, and VA are all 50/50 dead heats right now. I think if Obama carries NC Romney is toast. If Obama carries NC than the rest of the tossup states will almost certainly go Obama's way as well.

NV to my surprise seems to have been getting somewhat closer recently. Hmmm...

It's still a long way to go until Election Day, even today October 2, and anything and everything can and will happen in politics.

The debates could very well be Romney's best and perhaps even final shot to gain on Obama.

Wait and see as always!

Last Edit: 2012-10-03 @ 11:32:40

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-13 @ 12:56:01 prediction Map
Map version 22 is now closed. Please move to my new map version 23.

Thank you.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie

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