Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	288
Rep	250
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	275
Rep	190
Ind	0
Tos	73

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-1	-71	24	2	288	-71
Rep	+5	+1	+71	0	0	0	22	2	179	+71
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 35

Obama loses NC to 'I don't know'.rnrnNebraska CD is just a reminder

Version: 34

Obama gains Ohio and NC

Version: 32

Obama gains Michigan

Version: 31

- Obama loses Coloradornrn- NC is a real toss up - i just
can't my mind up
- i think the GOP turn out will be better than 2008 and the
DEM turnout lower. So a lot of states with small
differences in the percentages will go to Romney this year.

Version: 30

Obama gains PA and NH, but loses NV in this weeks prediction.

- PA / NH because Romney midwestern/northestern are not
enough to turn this two states red (blue on the map).

- NV the Mormon part of the population might give Romney the
edge there.

General:

- still the midwestern path might be sucessfull for romney; i
still believe that VA and NC will surprise on election
night. [but not enough surprise for an Obama victory]

Version: 29

Obama / Biden vs. Romney / Ryan

- Romney will make it in the midwestern states + florida

- surprise in nc + va: obama will hold them.

Version: 28

Romney/Ryan vs. Obama/Biden

- Romney on the Midwestern Path

- Florida and Arizona are to watch

Version: 27

Romney uses the midwestern path and wins WI, MI, OH and PA.

Not sure about NM and NH.

Obama keeps VA and NC, but loses FL.

Version: 25

Obama vs. Romney

unsure about Iowa, Arizona, Penn and Virginia

Version: 24

VA --> tossup

Version: 23

Obama / Clinton vs. Romney / Rubio

Change NJ from Tossup-R to Tossup-D

Version: 22

Obama / Clinon vs. Romney / Rubio

Change Delaware from Lean D to Strong D

Version: 21

Obama / Clinton vs. Romney / Rubio

Version: 20

Obama / Clinton vs. Romney / Rubio

Version: 19

Change Nevada from Lean R to Tossup.

Version: 18

Change Colorado from lean GOP to toss-up

Version: 17

Obama / Clinton vs. Romney / ???rnrnChanges:rnrnNM from lean R to tossup.rnCO from tossup to lean R

Version: 16

Changes:
- N-Dakota from Lean-R to Strong-R

- Delaware and Minnesota from Strong-D to Lean-D

Obama/Clinton vs. Romney/???

Version: 15

Obama/Clinton (!) vs. Romney/Gingrich (!)

- still the bottomline for the DEM's and the GOIP's wet dream.

- i changed some percentages and confidence.

Version: 14

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Tea Party

- this is the bottom line for the Democratic Party and the
ceiling for the GOP.

- This might come true:

- more trouble in the middle east (Syria; Iran; Palestine)
- the trouble is badly handled by the us government
- increasing gas prices
- your fellow european friends provide more bad financial
news.
- the GOP unites behind Romney and his VP candidate
--> 'anybody but obama'
- a part (not the majority) of the left/liberal part of the
us society doesn't back obama any more and will not vote
for him.
- and of course: something unpredictable happens

Of course a complete differnet scenario might occure come november.

I stick to this prediction until the first 'real' polls come out.

Version: 13

New Mexico

Version: 12

New Jersey

Version: 11

Nevada

Version: 10

Missouri

Version: 6

Obama vs. Romney

Some of the following things happen:

- Romney delivers a good campaign

- GOP unifies behind Romney

- high gas prices

- Euro crisis unsolved

- Afghanistan gets more messy

- Israel might attack Iran

Version: 5

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 4

Santorum / ??? socially conservative - non liberterian

Obama / Biden

- economy is improving further more

- no (new) war in the middle east

Version: 3

Ok; i gave up my hope for Kentucky & West Virginia and handed also South Carolina back to the GOP.

It is still a Santorum vs. Obama scenario.

What do You about the chances of Obama taking Texas?

Version: 2

Obama vs. Santorum

- us & world economy recovers
- no conflict with iran

Version: 1

Obama vs. Romney

- no war with iran
- no attack from israel on iran's nuclear program
- euro crisis doesn't get much worse
- us economy gets slightly better month by month

Version History

68: 2012-11-06 @ 09:19:00 67: 2012-11-05 @ 14:12:24 66: 2012-11-04 @ 13:43:03 65: 2012-10-31 @ 09:26:57 64: 2012-10-25 @ 02:34:05 63: 2012-10-23 @ 13:17:01 62: 2012-10-22 @ 12:37:01 61: 2012-10-20 @ 03:46:49 60: 2012-10-19 @ 09:02:23 59: 2012-10-18 @ 14:24:46 58: 2012-10-17 @ 09:00:05 57: 2012-10-16 @ 09:52:43 56: 2012-10-14 @ 14:08:24 55: 2012-10-13 @ 07:01:59 54: 2012-10-12 @ 06:57:45 53: 2012-10-11 @ 07:36:45 52: 2012-10-10 @ 07:16:11 51: 2012-10-09 @ 06:58:40 50: 2012-10-07 @ 13:33:52 49: 2012-10-06 @ 10:33:54 48: 2012-10-05 @ 10:16:56 47: 2012-10-04 @ 14:49:47 46: 2012-10-03 @ 15:25:17 45: 2012-10-02 @ 04:12:50 44: 2012-09-29 @ 07:39:01 43: 2012-09-26 @ 12:32:44 42: 2012-09-25 @ 07:12:44 41: 2012-09-22 @ 10:15:09 40: 2012-09-21 @ 08:41:07 39: 2012-09-20 @ 07:29:10 38: 2012-09-19 @ 12:25:59 37: 2012-09-18 @ 14:39:15 36: 2012-09-15 @ 05:22:48 35: 2012-09-12 @ 10:30:22 34: 2012-09-10 @ 09:15:32 33: 2012-09-06 @ 12:32:31 32: 2012-09-04 @ 10:55:32 31: 2012-09-02 @ 07:01:20 30: 2012-08-29 @ 08:14:02 29: 2012-08-24 @ 03:56:40 28: 2012-08-12 @ 15:08:51 27: 2012-08-02 @ 11:32:03 26: 2012-06-30 @ 09:09:18 25: 2012-06-25 @ 04:08:35 24: 2012-05-20 @ 13:24:03 23: 2012-05-11 @ 06:10:00 22: 2012-05-07 @ 07:17:50 21: 2012-05-03 @ 15:26:26 20: 2012-04-29 @ 05:46:54 19: 2012-04-26 @ 07:33:28 18: 2012-04-22 @ 11:11:58 17: 2012-04-14 @ 13:33:37 16: 2012-04-13 @ 10:34:47 15: 2012-04-09 @ 07:56:25 14: 2012-03-25 @ 09:12:58 13: 2012-03-24 @ 02:16:10 12: 2012-03-22 @ 14:03:02 11: 2012-03-21 @ 14:07:49 10: 2012-03-18 @ 02:10:10 9: 2012-03-15 @ 14:52:25 8: 2012-03-11 @ 07:11:30 7: 2012-03-01 @ 13:14:11 6: 2012-02-25 @ 15:23:53 5: 2012-02-23 @ 07:35:47 4: 2012-02-19 @ 05:38:02 3: 2012-02-10 @ 11:43:22 2: 2012-02-08 @ 04:25:39 1: 2012-02-05 @ 04:41:28 View Version