Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	275
Rep	180
Ind	0
Tos	83

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Florida: 50% D -> 40% D
Virginia: Lean D -> Tossup D

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 47

The margin for Michigan has narrowed to single digits. Since I use Dave's standard of Lean being 5 to 9%, that means I'm moving the state from Strong D to Lean D despite both meaning Safe D at this late date.

Version: 46

Colorado is close enough and there are plenty of third-party options, so I'm moving the state from 50% D to 40% D in my prediction.

Version: 45

While I in no way believe that Romney will win Tennessee by 25%, the previous polls that had him in the upper single digits are both before the debates and from lesser quality pollsters, so I can easily see Romney being in double digits now, so I'm moving Tennessee from Lean R to Strong R.

Version: 44

Moving Virginia from 40% D to 50% D.

Version: 43

Shifting Nevada from Tossup D to Lean D.

Version: 42

Shifting New Hampshire from 50% D to 40% D and if we get more polls in the same vein as the recent ones I'll move it to 40% R, but the polls have been too squishy for me to consider changing this state two steps at once.

Version: 41

Moving Ohio from Lean D to Tossup D.

Version: 40

Got busy with other things so it's been almost two weeks since my last update. This is largely bounce from the first debate, so all the shift are pro-Romney, but not enough for me to predict him winning.

Florida: 40% D -> 40% R
Indiana: Lean R -> Strong R
Massachusetts: 60% D -> 50% D
Missouri: Tossup R -> Lean R
Nebraska-2: 40% R -> 50% R
Nevada: Lean D -> Tossup D
New Hampshire: Lean D -> Tossup D
Oregon: Strong D -> Lean D
North Carolina: 40% R -> 50% R
South Dakota: Lean R -> Strong R
Virginia: 50% D -> 40% D
Wisconsin: Lean D -> Tossup D

Version: 39

Florida: 50% D -> 40% D
Virginia: Lean D -> Tossup D

Version: 38

Shifting North Carolina from 40%D to 40%R.

Version: 37

Moving Massachusetts from 50%D to 60%D, which means Brown is toast because Romney is doing so poorly.

New Hampshire also is being changed from Tossup D to Lean D.

However, moving North Carolina from 50%D to 40%D, and I might have put it at 40%R if some of the recent polls had been from companies I trusted better.

Version: 36

Moving Ohio from Tossup D to Lean D, which means that even if Romney wins every state I have as either a tossup or going for him, he needs my prediction to either change or be wrong to win.

Version: 35

Changing North Carolina from 40%D to 50%D.

Version: 34

Today's changes aren't good for Romney. Still if he wins every tossup, he'd have a chance.

Illinois: D 50% to D 60%
North Carolina: R 50% to D 40%

Version: 33

While the Hartford Courant poll may be overstating things at Obama+21, I think its safe to say Obama is in double digits, so changing Connecticut from Lean D to Strong D.

YouGov had a bunch of state polls released today, but the only one that affects my prediction is that of Iowa from 40%D to 50%D,

Version: 32

The latest New Hampshire polls have me moving the state from Lean D to Tossup D. Were it not for the 47% gaffe I'd also move it from 50% D to 40%D, but I'll wait for some post-gaffe polling before making further changes to my Granite State prediction.

The latest Maine poll shows that the two CDs are much more polarized than I thought they were, so I'm polarizing my predictions as well.
Maine CD 1: 50% D to 60% D
Maine CD 2: Strong D to Lean D.

The polling from Wisconsin is turning to Obama's advantage tho I don't believe the Marquette poll's 14 point lead. Still, I'm moving Wisconsin from Tossup D to Lean D.

Version: 31

I think the net effect of the Mother Jones video will be around a 1% swing against Romney. I.e., nothing too serious except Romney cannot afford a negative swing and needs a positive swing to win.

I decided to go ahead and review even the non-competive states. In doing so, I decided to move several states from 60% R to 50% R and would have even without the video. These states are Alabama, Kansas, and Louisiana where I now expect Romney to only get in the high 50's.

As for the video itself, the effects on my prediction are:
Iowa: 40% R to 40% D
Michigan: Lean D to Strong D
Missouri: Lean R to Tossup R
Nebraska CD2: 50% R to 40% R
New Hampshire: Tossup D to Lean D
Oregon: Lean D to Strong D
Rhode Island: 50% D to 60% D
South Dakota: Strong R to Lean R

Note that some of these were changes I was waiting for one more poll to confirm a trend before making, and I decided to use the video as that confirmation.

Version: 30

Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio have all shown improved results for Obama in recent polling, enough so that I'm going to move them all from 40%D to 50%D. However, the continuing display of weakness in Minnesota does cause me to move it from Strong D to Lean D, which should be cold comfort to Romney supporters.

Version: 29

Based on PPP's Montana poll, I'm shifting Montana from Strong R to Lean R. It's still safe for Romney, but it doesn't look like it's double digit safe.

Version: 27

The polls clearly indicate that unlike Romney, Obama got a bounce out of his convention. Not all of that bounce will stick, but enough will that I'm backtracking the changes I made to my prediction because of the poor jobs report.

Version: 26

With a jobs report under 100K net new jobs in August and substantial downward revisions in June and July, the employment news was noticeably worse for Obama than I was expecting. While the convention bounces still need to sort themselves out, I'm making a number of revisions in favor of Romney. I still have Obama winning, but it's a squeaker now.

Changes

Virginia

Lean D -> Tossup D

Colorado

D 50 -> D 40

Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio

D 40 -> R 40

North Carolina

R 40 -> R 50

Nebraska 2

Tossup R -> Lean R

Tennessee

Lean R -> Strong R

Nebraska 3

R 60 -> R 70

Version: 25

I've decided to move New Jersey from Lean D to Strong D.

Version: 24

If I blindly followed polls, I'd be moving Iowa into Obama's column. Instead, I'm merely changing it from 50% R to 40% R.

Version: 23

Moving Connecticut from Strong D to Lean D now that Rassmussen's latest poll shows that last month's PPP poll wasn't a fluke. Obama should still win the state comfortably, just not by double digit margins.

The recent Florida polls have me moving the state from 50%D to 40%D.

Version: 22

I'm moving Virginia from Tossup D to Lean D on the assumption that Goode will be on the ballot there.

Version: 21

Ohio looks to be tightening up and the coal issue will affect Obama negatively, so I'm changing Ohio from 50% D to 40% D.

Version: 20

My totally gut feeling as to what the rumored announcement of Ryan will do long term.

Florida: 40% D to 50% D
Iowa: 40% R to 50% R
New Hampshire: 50% D to 40% D

I had been considering before the announcement changing Wisconsin from Tossup D to Lean D, but not now.

Version: 19

I think the Quinnipac polls released today for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania all oversampled Democrats. However, even after accounting for that, when combined with other recent polls, I've decided to move Florida from Tossup R to Tossup D for now.

Version: 18

I still don't think much of We Ask America as a pollster, but their poll showing Romney up 9 wasn't obviously bad and I think Missouri is on the borderline between tossup and lean anyway, so I'll move Missouri across the border to lean R from tossup R.

Version: 17

Between the Rasmussen and PPP polls, I feel comfortable shifting Michigan from Tossup D to Lean D, but just barely.

Version: 16

I'm bumping both Ohio and Wisconsin up from 40%D to 50%D and Virgina down from Lean D to Tossup D.

Version: 15

The North American drought is drying up not just grain, but also the farm economy in much of the upper Mississippi basin. The economic effects will be felt sharpest and soonest there. Outside the upper Mississippi the effects won't be felt in time to have an effect in the voting booth, and they aren't yet showing up in the polls. Moving Iowa from 40% D to 40% R and Wisconsin from 50%D to 40% D.

Version: 14

The change in Virginia from Tossup D to Lean D is not because I now think Obama will do better than I did 19 days ago. Rather it is because I think based on the PPP poll released today Virgil Goode is likely to obtain 2 to 3% of Virginia voters, a fair chunk of which would vote for Romney otherwise. I may be overestimating Goode's impact, but it's been 19 days since I last fiddled with my prediction, and this is as goode a reason as any to do so now.

Version: 13

I'm shifting Michigan from Lean D to Tossup D based on today's Mitchell poll combined with yesterday's We Ask America poll. Neither poll by itself would have caused me to do so, but the combo along with the other Michigan polls this month indicates the race has narrowed there.

Today's Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire nudges me closer to shifting that state from Tossup D to Lean D, but not yet.

Version: 12

Based on the Arizona and Colorado polls PPP released Tuesday, I'm bumping Arizona from Strong R to Lean R and Colorado from 40% D to 50% D.

If I could trust the Elway poll of Washington, I'd consider moving Washington from Strong D to Lean D, but they have no track record I know of for me to judge the value of their poll.

Based on the today's Rasmussen poll of Montana, I'm shifting Montana from Strong R to Lean R since it looks like Romney will not get a double digit margin there. It's still a very safe state for Romney, just not one that he will landslide.

Version: 11

Today's Iowa poll from Rasmussen was enough to cause me to shift Iowa from 50% D to 40% D im my prediction.

Version: 10

The four-state Purple Poll released today when combined with other recent polls is enough to have me shift Ohio from D 50% to D 40%, but I want a poll I trust more before shifting Ohio into the Romney column.

Version: 9

No way do I believe that Obama has a 12 point lead in Pennsylvania as the Franklin & Marshall poll released this morning indicated, but that and the other recent polls are enough to convince me that Obama will likely have a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania come November, so I'm moving Pennsylvania from Tossup D to Lean D.

Version: 8

Based on the results from today's recall election, I'm changing Wisconsin from Lead Democrat to Tossup Democrat.

Version: 7

Several interesting polls the last few days, but the only one that caused me to change my prediction is the PPP poll of Missouri. I'm going to bump Missouri back to Romney Tossup after briefly pushing it to Lean. Keep in mind that for my maps Lean is a 5 to 10% margin.

Version: 6

A mixture of minor changes from my prediction of almost three months ago. A majority of them are favorable to Romney, and lead me to assign 10 more EV to being confidently Romney's. However, the flip of New Hampshire from a Romney tossup to an Obama tossup means I'm still predicting a solid Obama win.

Changes in Romney's favor:
Arkansas from Lean Romney to Strong Romney.
Colorado from Obama 50% to Obama 40%.
Kansas from Romney 50% to Romney 60%.
Michigan and New Jersey from Strong Obama to Lean Obama.
Missouri from Tossup Romney to Lean Romney.

Changes in Obama's favor:
New Hampshire from Romney 50% to Obama 50%.
Tennessee from Strong Romney to Lean Romney.

Version: 5

Made slight adjustments to seven states, mostly in favor of Obama, tho the graphs will show a slight uptick for Romney as the single pro-Romney change is the only one to affect the graphs:

AZ R50S -> R50L
FL R50T -> R40T
IA D50L -> D50T
MN D50L -> D50S
NJ D50L -> D50S
NM D50L -> D50S
WA D50L -> D50S

Version: 4

Still fairly early to be making predictions. As before this map assumes Obama vs. Romney. Only change is I've moved Ohio from a 40% D Tossup to 50% D Tossup.

Version: 3

I've decided to go from Obama v. generic Republican but Obama v. Romney in my prediction. This isn't because I think Romney will win the nomination, tho he still has a respectable chance of doing so, but rather that of all of Obama's potential Republican opponents, he is the least likely to be affected by wild swings of sentiment right now.

The situation does not look good for the Republicans right now, no matter who gets the nomination. As such I've moved Ohio and Virginia into the Democratic column from my prediction of three months earlier, something I would have done for any of the potential nominees. However, Mitt's personal popularity in New Hampshire has caused me to place that state in the Republican column.

For states with no or questionable polling data I an using the assumption of a 2% swing to the GOP from 2008, a decrease from the 4% swing I used in my previous prediction.

Version: 2

Switching from a 3% uniform swing to a 4% uniform swing because my expectations for the economy next year have worsened. Still a crude map.

Resulting changes:

D to R: Virginia [13 EV]

D-Strong to D-Lean: Oregon, Washington
D-Lean to D-Tossup: Colorado, Iowa
D-Tossup to R-Tossup: Virginia
R-Tossup to R-Lean: Florida, Indiana. Missouri, Nebraska CD 2
R-Lean to R-Strong: Montana

50% D to 40% D: Iowa
40% D to 50% R: Virginia
40% R to 50% R: Ohio
50% R to 60% R: Kansas, Tennessee

Version: 1

Very rough initial draft generated assuming a 3% uniform swing from 2008.

Georgia should have been marked as R-Strong instead of R-Lean.

Version History

48: 2012-11-05 @ 07:46:30 47: 2012-11-02 @ 18:38:28 46: 2012-11-01 @ 14:03:40 45: 2012-10-27 @ 16:47:23 44: 2012-10-25 @ 16:41:43 43: 2012-10-24 @ 18:13:27 42: 2012-10-23 @ 17:10:42 41: 2012-10-22 @ 01:51:41 40: 2012-10-19 @ 00:54:31 39: 2012-10-05 @ 17:37:27 38: 2012-10-03 @ 22:48:03 37: 2012-10-01 @ 23:17:43 36: 2012-09-26 @ 16:06:54 35: 2012-09-24 @ 20:14:31 34: 2012-09-21 @ 21:01:09 33: 2012-09-20 @ 14:58:55 32: 2012-09-19 @ 15:27:13 31: 2012-09-18 @ 13:00:46 30: 2012-09-14 @ 03:34:02 29: 2012-09-12 @ 21:02:38 28: 2012-09-11 @ 03:41:40 27: 2012-09-10 @ 21:01:07 26: 2012-09-07 @ 16:07:11 25: 2012-08-29 @ 03:00:05 24: 2012-08-28 @ 18:37:57 23: 2012-08-23 @ 13:50:50 22: 2012-08-21 @ 19:18:19 21: 2012-08-14 @ 18:54:30 20: 2012-08-11 @ 01:44:54 19: 2012-08-01 @ 11:54:45 18: 2012-07-27 @ 00:02:23 17: 2012-07-25 @ 20:35:51 16: 2012-07-19 @ 23:28:04 15: 2012-07-17 @ 23:09:57 14: 2012-07-10 @ 15:59:18 13: 2012-06-21 @ 11:36:57 12: 2012-06-20 @ 21:25:06 11: 2012-06-12 @ 21:44:10 10: 2012-06-07 @ 21:43:00 9: 2012-06-06 @ 11:17:11 8: 2012-06-05 @ 23:50:40 7: 2012-05-30 @ 21:52:49 6: 2012-05-29 @ 14:59:20 5: 2012-03-02 @ 21:04:14 4: 2012-02-02 @ 23:49:15 3: 2011-12-17 @ 20:19:48 2: 2011-09-10 @ 17:02:38 1: 2011-07-22 @ 21:02:14 View Version