PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - tinman64 (I-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:26

Prediction Map
tinman64 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
tinman64 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem294
 
Rep244
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos95
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-65252294-65
Rep+4+1+65000222179+65
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 33

Popular vote percentage projections, with 9 days to go. Likely to change.

Alabama - Romney 61, Obama 38, others 1
Alaska - Romney 58, Obama 37, others 5
Arizona - Romney 53, Obama 46, others 1
Arkansas - Romney 60, Obama 39, others 1
California - Obama 56, Romney 41, others 3
Colorado - Romney 50, Obama 49, others 1
Connecticut - Obama 57, Romney 42, others 1
Delaware - Obama 58, Romney 41, others 1
D.C. - Obama 91, Romney 8, others 1
Florida - Romney 50, Obama 49, others 1
Georgia - Romney 54, Obama 45, others 1
Hawaii - Obama 66, Romney 33, others 1
Idaho - Romney 63, Obama 36, others 1
Illinois - Obama 58, Romney 41, others 1
Indiana - Romney 52, Obama 47, others 1
Iowa - Obama 51, Romney 48, others 1
Kansas - Romney 59, Obama 40, others 1
Kentucky - Romney 58, Obama 41, others 1
Louisiana - Romney 58, Obama 41, others 1
Maine - Obama 55, Romney 44, others 1
Maryland - Obama 57, Romney 42, others 1
Massachusetts - Obama 59, Romney 40, others 1
Michigan - Obama 53, Romney 46, others 1
Minnesota - Obama 54, Romney 45, others 1
Mississippi - Romney 58, Obama 41, others 1
Missouri - Romney 53, Obama 46, others 1
Montana - Romney 55, Obama 44, others 1
Nebraska - Romney 59, Obama 40, others 1
Nevada - Obama 52, Romney 47, others 1
New Hampshire - Obama 51, Romney 48, others 1
New Jersey - Obama 55, Romney 44, others 1
New Mexico - Obama 55, Romney 41, others 4
New York - Obama 60, Romney 39, others 1
North Carolina - Romney 52, Obama 47, others 1
North Dakota - Romney 58, Obama 41, others 1
Ohio - Obama 50, Romney 48, others 2
Oklahoma - Romney 64, Obama 35, others 1
Oregon - Obama 55, Romney 44, others 1
Pennsylvania - Obama 53, Romney 46, others 1
Rhode Island - Obama 60, Romney 39, others 1
South Carolina - Romney 55, Obama 44, others 1
South Dakota - Romney 57, Obama 42, others 1
Tennessee - Romney 57, Obama 42, others 1
Texas - Romney 56, Obama 43, others 1
Utah - Romney 73, Obama 26, others 1
Vermont - Obama 62, Romney 37, others 1
Virginia - Obama 49.8, Romney 47.8, others 2.4
Washington - Obama 55, Romney 44, others 1
West Virginia - Romney 56, Obama 43, others 1
Wisconsin - Obama 51, Romney 48.5, others 1.5
Wyoming - Romney 65, Obama 34, others 1


Version: 30

The "Ohio Firewall."

With less than three weeks to go, that's what this election boils down to.

Can Obama successfully buttress OH and win election?

Tossup analysis:

Colorado - slipping away from Obama everyday. Still a tossup, Romney wins by perhaps 3-4 points.

Florida - See Colorado.

Iowa - No great polls from this state recently. Obama by 1-3 points.

Nevada - See Iowa.

New Hampshire - I've been back and forth with this one. Obama by perhaps 3, or Romney by 1-2. Your choice.

Ohio - No Republican has won the presidency without this state. Romney could do it, but needs CO and FL and a few others. The firewall holds for now, Obama by 1-3.

Virginia - Obama had the lead until recently, this must be a disappointment for the campaign. He can still pick it up, but right now I'd say Romney by 1-2.

Wisconsin - Slipping away from Romney's grasp despite Ryan. Obama by 3-4.


Version: 27

Romney 50.4%
Obama 48.6%
Others 1%


Version: 25

BIG win for Romney in the first debate. He must now be given a slight edge.


Version: 12

Obama vs. Romney


Version: 11

Obama vs. Romney


Version: 10

Obama vs. Gingrich


Version: 9

Obama vs. Romney (1% for minor candidates)

Alabama - Romney 59, Obama 40
Alaska - Romney 60, Obama 39
Arizona - Romney 55, Obama 44
Arkansas - Romney 58, Obama 41
California - Obama 56, Romney 43
Colorado - Obama 52, Romney 47
Connecticut - Obama 55, Romney 44
Delaware - Obama 55, Romney 44
DC - Obama 87, Romney 12
Florida - Romney 51, Obama 48
Georgia - Romney 54, Obama 45
Hawaii - Obama 61, Romney 38
Idaho - Romney 65, Obama 34
Illinois - Obama 55, Romney 44
Indiana - Romney 53, Obama 46
Iowa - Obama 51, Romney 48
Kansas - Romney 60, Obama 39
Kentucky - Romney 58, Obama 41
Louisiana - Romney 59, Obama 40
Maine - Obama 53, Romney 46
Maryland - Obama 56, Romney 43
Massachusetts - Obama 55, Romney 44
Michigan - Obama 51, Romney 48
Minnesota - Obama 53, Romney 46
Mississippi - Romney 58, Obama 41
Missouri - Romney 52, Obama 47
Montana - Romney 54, Obama 45
Nebraska - Romney 60, Obama 39
Nevada - Obama 52, Romney 47
New Hampshire - Romney 53, Obama 46
New Jersey - Obama 55, Romney 44
New Mexico - Obama 54, Romney 45
New York - Obama 57, Romney 42
North Carolina - Romney 52, Obama 47
North Dakota - Romney 59, Obama 40
Ohio - Obama 50, Romney 49
Oklahoma - Romney 63, Obama 36
Oregon - Obama 55, Romney 44
Pennsylvania - Obama 53, Romney 46
Rhode Island - Obama 58, Romney 41
South Carolina - Romney 55, Obama 44
South Dakota - Romney 60, Obama 39
Tennessee - Romney 57, Obama 42
Texas - Romney 55, Obama 44
Utah - Romney 76, Obama 23
Vermont - Obama 57, Romney 42
Virginia - Obama 51, Romney 48
Washington - Obama 55, Romney 44
West Virginia - Romney 55, Obama 44
Wisconsin - Obama 53, Romney 46
Wyoming - Romney 63, Obama 36


Version: 8

Obama vs. Romney


Version: 7

Obama vs. Santorum


Version: 6

Obama vs. Newt


Version: 5

Obama vs. Romney


Version: 4

Obama vs. Gingrich


Version: 1

Obama vs. Generic (R)


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 11 74T115
P 2022 Senate 33/35 26/35 59/70 84.3% pie 7 4 69T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 24/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 1 104T272
P 2020 President 53/56 39/56 92/112 82.1% pie 31 6 307T684
P 2020 Senate 33/35 22/35 55/70 78.6% pie 13 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 7 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 2 8 104T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 15 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 21/36 53/72 73.6% pie 14 2 164T372
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 64 1 325T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 18/34 50/68 73.5% pie 15 0 89T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 6/12 15/24 62.5% pie 10 2 47T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 2 9 8T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 23/36 57/72 79.2% pie 11 1 82T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 10 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 1 17T153
P 2012 President 54/56 40/56 94/112 83.9% pie 34 2 367T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 16/33 47/66 71.2% pie 13 2 164T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 6 2 51T228
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 9 0 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 9 0 17T312
P 2008 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 13 1 115T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 17/33 49/66 74.2% pie 4 1 144T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 4 1 27T264
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 20 1 65T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 19/36 54/72 75.0% pie 16 1 81T312
P 2004 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 35 3 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 775/828 525/828 1300/1656 78.5% pie



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