Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:3
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Prediction States Won
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Analysis
The debate not only gave Romney momentum, but has decreased other electoral college maps for Romney. A Pew Poll has Romney leading Obama, 49-45%, but stlll losing the electoral college by a wide margin. But, even more ominous for Romney is the Gallup poll. It is usually accurate in October for predicting the presidential race. Obama leads Romney, 50%-46% among registered voters, but tied among likely voters. It has been wrong 3 times. The results have been wrong only 3 times: 04, 1976, and 1948. Also, each time an incumbent president goes to the people, the crowds are always large, and the incumbent wins. In 1980, and 1992, neither Carter or Bush went to the people. They both had controlled events. Obama's biggest asset is himself. People love seeing their president in person, and, are swayed in voting for him.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 2 The popular vote is extremely close, but the electoral college tells a different story. President Obama leads Gov. Romney by big margins in the swing states. Romney has succeeded in getting almost every Demographic group fired up in beating him. The 47% remark did not help him. Voter I.D. laws are not going over well with large Demographic groups. A sizable portion of women are unhappy with him. The African-American base is fired up. Hispanics remember immigration remarks during his primary campaign, older folks are now looking at him and his policies now. Independent voters are giving him a hard look. It's too early to tell if the debates are going to matter at all. Early voting has been going on for a week now. If the polling is right, then Romney may already be trailing. States Romney may lose are usual Republican states with large African-American and evangelical votes are: Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, and maybe a few others. North Dakota has a booming economy, and one pollster gives the state to Obama, and Montana is unpredictable. Indiana is a rust belt state that has seen its economy improve. And the polls there are all over. Some give Romney a huge lead, others have Obama within striking distance. And voters are more likely to blame Congressional Republicans for the bad economy than Obama. Blaming them for not working with Obama on jobs and the economy the last two years. This is why Obama leads in the electoral college. So far, voters don't like what they see with Romney or Ryan. Version: 1 President Obama is heading for an landslide electoral college win. The results will show in the rust belt. The economy is going strong in Michigan, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin. And 3 of the states are heavily Democratic. It's very unlikely that Wisconsin, and Michigan will go Republican. Ohio, a reliablly Republican state doesn't seem to like Gov. Romney. So far, the polls in Ohio are very consistent with Obama winning by 8 or more points. And it doesn't help that Gov. Romney thinks that the cold war is still going on. The Republican Congress is also heading for a landslilde defeat. The American public sees them as obstacles to Obama's job plans. A congress with a 9% approval rate says that the public do not beleive the Republican party. Unions are strong in Ohio and Wisconsin, and so far the Republicans have not done anything to endear themselves to the working man and woman. The African-American vote is also going to be a big factor in these states. Watch Indiana. If Obama is at a percentage rate of high 30s in the rural counties, and he gets the same margins he got last time, he will win Indiana again by a small margin with just 3 or 4 counties. Even though people won't admit it, Romney's Mormon faith is hurting him in the south. Instead of having a 20 point plus lead at this time. Mr. Romney is holding a slim 8 to 9 point lead in southern states where the evangelical vote is strong. They may leave either the ballots blank, or stay home, and some of them may vote for Obama. Watch the civil war border state of Missouri, and Georgia. Both have high African-American voter's. Combine that with the evangelical relunctance for voting for Romney. And we may see all nighters'. And, it doesn't have to be 70% evangelical support for Romney. A 10% loss among this group would be disasterous for Romney. Finally, the popular vote may be close, but the electoral college isn't. Obama is the favorite here. A lot of the reasons is that Democrats, and moderate Independents dominate those states. Hispanics dont' trust Republicans in the west. So it looks like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and California is in Obama's column. Arizona and Texas are unknowns. In 2010, the Hispanic turn-out was close to 100% in California, Colorado and Nevada due to racism on part of some Republicans. Nevertheless, Hispanics still voted for Hispanic Republicans in New Mexico and Nevada, while still voting heavily Senate Democratic incumbents in those states. Finally, I hate to say this, but Mr. Romney is being caught in some lies, either out of ignorance, or due to some of his supporters..So a 421 to 117 Obama electoral win is not out of the question. But, so far the average seems to be 321 to 359 for Obama. The auto industry is going strong, the economny is improving, but would 10 times strong if the Republican congress had worked with Obama. There's just a lot of things in favor of Mr. Obama at this moment in time. And, Mr. Romney's way of handling people in business is going to hurt him. You just take over successful businesses, and run them to the ground, and declare bankruptcy.
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