CO, and with it the election, has swung to Romney. The future debates might swing things back, but it's looking less and less likely.

VA flips back to Romney, and a few minor tweaks. It's really looking like this is what we will see on election night. Obama 277-261

NH to Romney, FL no longer a toss-up. VA and OH are razor-thin and although slightly back to Obama, he may not hold them. The first debate hurt more than it should have, and Biden's win didn't really help much. It really looks like Obama has collapsed at the finish line. Romney will almost certainly win now. 290-248 Obama will not last.

CO, and with it the election, has swung to Romney. The future debates might swing things back, but it's looking less and less likely.

Obama's embarrassing non-performance at the first debate has cost him dearly. FL, OH, and VA have all flipped back to Romney, and at this late stage, may well be irretrievable. If Obama does not "hit one out of the park" at the 2nd and 3rd debates, he will lose NH, CO, and/or IA/WI and with it the election. Currently 247-191 Obama with 100 toss-up EVs, or 272-266 Obama eliminating toss-ups.

NH has swung back to Obama; enough that I've taken it out of the "toss-up" catagory. CO is trending toward the President as well. There have been polls that indicate the NC is also trending Obama, but I'm skeptical about that. Romney's recent remarks seem to show that he's doing everything he can think of to lose this election. Currently, it's 247-191 Obama with 100 toss-up EVs, or 332-206 Obama if you eliminate the toss-ups. Comments and RESPECTFUL critiques welcome.

CO now trending slightly toward Romney; NH and WI in play. Map still favors Obama, as Romney needs to take OH and/or FL to win, and even with only one of the two, he'd have to nearly run the table with the other toss-ups. He cannot win without at least one of them. Score is 323-215 for Obama. The debates will decide things, I think.

CO, IA, and FL trending toward Obama; NH and ME-2 more firmly in his camp, NC and NE-2 more firmly for Romney. Unclear at this time whether Obama's post-convention bump will be undone in the long term by the latest dismal jobs report.

A slight correction of my previous post.

NH and VA look to be leaning slightly back to Obama; CO and FL toward Romney. Ryan's inclusion on the GOP ticket, while it doesn't seem to have put WI in play, has made it a little less firmly in Obama's column. Ryan's budget plan, vis-a-vis potential Medicare cuts, may hurt Romney in FL, but not necessarily enough to swing it back to Obama, if it is indeed swinging Republican, as it seems to be.

Romney looks to have flipped NH, IN, VA, NC, IA, and NE-2 back to the GOP. OH and FL are iffy.

Worst case scenario for Obama. The recovery slows or falters, he gets blamed for $5/ gallon gas; Romney chooses Santorum for his running mate, solidifying the evangelical vote. Romney wins 285-253.

Obama/Santorum here. I don't see Santorum carrying NH, and probabaly not OH -- that's Romney territory; however, Iowa has a significant religious conservative bloc, and may filp to the GOP if Santorum is the nominee.

Assuming Obama/Romney. The election is Obama's to lose.