PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - palandio (I-DEU) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-10 Version:31

Prediction Map
palandio MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
palandio MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep248
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem257
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos90
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-69252290-69
Rep+4+1+69000222179+69
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Things are shifting towards Romney.
He's now slightly ahead in FL and VA.
PA could again become competitive.
Surprisingly good polling for Obama in NH.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 33

MO and AZ from Lean to Strong R.
NC from tossup to Lean R.
FL from >40% to >50%.
PA from Lean to Strong D.

IA and OH are between tossup and Lean D.
FL is between tossup and Lean R.


Version: 32

NH back to tossup.

The third debate probably didn't change much. Obama slighty ahead, as before, but only slightly.


Version: 31

Things are shifting towards Romney.
He's now slightly ahead in FL and VA.
PA could again become competitive.
Surprisingly good polling for Obama in NH.


Version: 30

Could the first debate have been the game-changer? Maybe yes, but I still see Obama favored.
MI, MN and PA from Lean DEM to Strong DEM, as campaigns have pulled out.
WI from Toss-up to Lean, I'm reluctant to move it to Strong DEM.
NV stays Lean DEM, both campaigns are still campaigning there as is also has a very central role in electoral math.
OH stays Toss-up, even if the polls indicate Lean DEM.
FL from REP to DEM.
AZ, IN and MO stay Lean REP for the moment, could become Strong.


Version: 29

So finally the VP pick is a good possibility to tighten the confidence field a bit...
NV and PA from tossup to lean DEM.
NJ and NM from lean DEM to strong DEM. (Only a Christie or S. Martinez pick would have saved them from this.)
WI for the moment stays where it is.
VA from REP>50 to DEM>40, why not.
MT from lean REP to strong REP.

I'm still not willing to give to much attention to the polls. For example some weeks ago some polls showed a dead heat in PA and everyone said "Obama could lose PA, even while winning OH", then came out some polls showing him with double-digit leads in PA and many moving PA into the Dem solid column. The truth will probably lie somewhere in between.

For the moment:
Lean REP:
- IN is winnable for Obama, but only if he leads by over 7 points nationally, which is unlikely but I wouldn't exclude it.
- MO this time could be slightly closer than IN, but still...
- AZ should be winnable for Obama, but only if he wins the PV by ca. 5 points and Democrats concentrate on voter registration and turnout efforts in AZ.

Tossups, slightly REP-leaning, convention hosts:
- NC will be mostly about turnout, especially for the DEMs.
- FL at the moment shows some decent polling for Obama. I still don't buy it completely.

Tossups, very slightly DEM-leaning:
- VA will be close to the national average.
- OH is still THE national bellwether and almost a must-win for Romney.

Tossups, fundamentals a bit more favorable for Obama:
- CO was 2008's "tipping point state", the trend is clearly DEM-friendly, but will it continue?
- NH is very swingy and slightly DEM leaning, but the 2000 and 2004 have shown that it often prefers the more North Eastern candidate
- IA is normally about 1-2 points more DEM than the national average, but you never know.
- WI is very swingy, look at the 2008 and 2010 elections. I would have moved it into the lean DEM column, but maybe Ryan will help Romney there?

Lean DEM:
- PA has a solid democratic voter base, but it could become close.
- NV is moving into the DEM column, the GOP in 2008 and 2010 has been deceived by weak polling. The economic situation could become a problem for Obama.
- MI polling has been all over the place and we still don't know if there will be some kind of "home-state-effect" for Romney and how the auto-bailout will play out.
- MN is somewhere between lean DEM and safe DEM.


Version: 28

No real changes, I'm waiting for Romney's VP pick.

Some percentage changes reflecting third party ballot access:
IA from D>40 to D>50.
CO from D>50 to D>40.
VA from R>40 to R>50.


Version: 27

AR, LA, TN and WV from R>50 to R>60.


Version: 26

OH from R to D
VA from D to R
CO from D>40 to D>50
FL from R>50 to R>40
AZ from tossup to lean R
changed districts in NE.


Version: 25

CA from >60 to >50
ME from Lean to Safe
ME-2 from Tossup to Lean
OH from DEM to REP
NC from >40 to >50
FL from >40 to >50
GA from Lean to Safe
SC from Lean to Safe
TX from Lean to Safe


Version: 24

CO from DEM>50 to DEM>40
WI from DEM>40 to DEM>50


Version: 23

Changed percentages:
WI from DEM>50 to DEM>40
NH from DEM>40 to DEM>50


Version: 22

Moved NH from GOP to DEM.


Version: 21

Switched VA from Romney to Obama.
Lowered R percentages in FL, NC, TN.


Version: 18

This is where I see the race at the moment. Romney has the best chances to get the nomination, but is trailing Obama in some key battleground states.

(I'm sorry that the map is not very original and instead similar to the median prediction.)


Version: 17

Obama 51.5%
Romney 32.3%
Some Southern Republican 18.2%

Feel free to comment.


Version: 16

Obama 46%
Romney 33%
Some Southern Republican 19%

Feel free to comment.


Version: 15

Romney 49.9% - Obama 45.0%
Scenario: War Israel vs. Iran, USA getting reluctantly involved. Obama can satisfy neither the pro-Israel voters nor pacifists. The oil price rises, economy turns down. Romney cannot really convince the electorate but Obama's voters are running away.

Feel free to comment.


Version: 14

Obama 51.5%
Republican candidate 46.0%

A bit closer than my last map, but Obama still favored.
Feel free to comment.


Version: 13

Obama 52.5%
Republican candidate 45.0%


Version: 11

Obama vs. Republican candidate.
The race Romney vs. Gingrich is still open and will probably be decided in the big winner-takes-it-all states in April or May.


Version: 10

Obama 46%
Gingrich 30.5%
Paul 21.5%

I don't think that Paul would really get that much, but take it as a fun map.


Version: 9

Obama vs. Likely Republican 50 - 48


Version: 8

Obama 50.0% vs. Likely Republican 47.5%

Now that Romney is favored to win the Republican nomination I shifted NH back to R.
Closest states are VA (D+0.3) and OH (D+0.5).

Feel free to comment.


Version: 7

Obama 50.5%
Likely Republican 47.0%

Closest state: Florida R+0.4

*** Merry Christmas! ***


Version: 6

NE-At large should be REP > 50%.

Obama 50.7% - Likely Republican 47.0%
where Likely Republican is 40% Romney, 50% Gingrich, 10% surprise.

Feel free to comment.


Version: 5

A fun map:
DEM Obama/Biden 35.1%
REP Gingrich/Rubio? 33.8%
IND Bloomberg?/Huntsman? 30.3%

DEM-REP tossups: Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia

DEM-IND tossups: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, Oregon, Washington.

REP-IND tossups: Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Utah.

Three-way tossups: Florida (almost REP lean), New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin.


Version: 4

Obama/Biden 50.0%
Republican candidate 48.1%

I'm switching back to Obama vs. Republican candidate. The match-up Obama vs. Romney is still more likely than all other scenarios together, so it is weighted by ca. 60%. Romneys general election numbers are more competitive than those of his GOP rivals.

States to watch:
- NC and VA with a margin <1% could go either way, for the moment I display the more interesting scenario.
- Developments in Ohio seem to be favorable for the democrats, but it would still be close.
- Michigan could be toss-up in an Obama-Romney match-up.
- Polls show Pennsylvania to be close. I think it is still slightly more favorable for the DEMs than the national average.
- I'm hoping for more AZ, GA and TX polls.

Feel free to comment.


Version: 3

Quite the opposite of my Scenario 2, but still Obama vs. Romney. This assumes a slight economic recovery, a weak Romney campaign and a turnout of Dem-leaning key groups much higher than in 2010.

National margin: D+5.0

Closest states:
- Arizona: Obama makes high gains, but high Mormon turnout saves this state for Romney. R+0.5
- New Hampshire: Romney does quite well there, but in the end the national climate is to unfavorable for him. D+0.5
- Florida: Florida moves further away from the national average, like in the last decade. R+1.5
- Ohio: As the nation goes, so goes Ohio, or was it the other way round? D+2.0
- Virginia and North Carolina are among the states to watch, too.

Feel free to comment.


Version: 2

In this scenario things go bad for Obama and the democrats, similarly to the 2010 elections. And in fact the 2010 results have influenced this map. The republican candidate is Romney.

National result: Romney 51 - Obama 46

Closest states:
- New Jersey: In 2010 democratic house candidates got less votes there than republican candidates, though it may have to do with the apportionment of the districts (dem-ultrasolid districts with low turnout). Obama 49 - Romney 48
- Minnesota: Seems to have a stable democratic base, though it would certainly become close. Obama 49 - Romney 48
- Pennsylvania: Stable base here, too. For this reason Obama will most probably not lose by more than 3-4 points. Romney 49,5 - Obama 47,5
- Michigan: Difficult to predict. The 2010 results and personal affinities are going for Romney, the 2008 results and the auto bailout not. Romney 49,9 - Obama 47,5

Feel free to comment.


Version: 1

At this point more than a year before the election, we don't even know who will be the Republican candidate. So I made a map that is about 50% Romney-Obama and about 50% [rest of REP field]-Obama.

Interesting states:
- Michigan: With Romney it would be toss-up, but slightly DEM-leaning. Otherwise likely DEM, but not safe.
- New Hampshire: With Romney toss-up, slightly REP-leaning.
- Arizona: Without McCain it should be only about 5 points more in the Republican direction than the national average. If Obama wins as big as last time (not so likely, but still possible) he has good chances in Arizona.
- North Carolina: DEM-favoring demographic trends and strong efforts by the Obama campaign should move it closer to the national average. But can it decide a close election in favor of Obama? Can it move him over the top
- Colorado: Was the "tipping-point state" last time, i.e. Obama could have lost all states with smaller margins than Colorado and still win.
- Possible tipping-point states this time: PA (the bigger the more important), VA, CO, NH (take the scenario with CO as tps and move NH to the REP column: Obama's nightmare), OH, NC.

Feel free to comment.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 238
P 2020 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 2 10 35T684
P 2016 President 52/56 34/56 86/112 76.8% pie 15 1 48T678
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 34 1 47T760
Aggregate Predictions 161/168 127/168 288/336 85.7% pie



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