The only change I've made since my last update is change Wisconsin from "lean Obama" to "Toss-Up." I doubted whether to even do this, as it is primarily based on the results of one poll and the fact that it is Rep. Paul Ryan's home state.

So far, my guesstimate is that Romney's selection of Ryan is having a negligible impact on the race at best.

While things could certainly change in the next two and a half months, this map represents the static nature of this race overall and not much has changed since about Nov. 2011.

This prediction assumes Mitt Romeny as the GOP nominee, a generally likeable GOP VP candidate and continued economic stagnation (i.e., the economy remains much as it is presently.)

Versus Mitt Romney. At this stage in the game, my analysis is this: people are angry, and they're angry at Obama, and they'd like an acceptable, sensible Republican candidate to for. The problem with that is...there aren't going to be any of those in 2012. As of Oct/Nov 11, Obama's most plausible likely opponents are the following:

--Romney: seems sensible, respectable and and almost acceptable...until then you realize he's a Wall Street superstar. Yeah, we need someone to turn our economy around, but...this guy?

--Cain: wait, he was the CEO of what? He has no government experience at all, except being on the fed in Kansas City? He says kooky things and flip-flops prodigiously?

--Perry: the almost-George W. Bush. He's sort of acceptable, except then you listen to him talk and he says the darndest, kookiest things. Like about ending Social Security.

As for Obama himself, he'd do best if he just kept his mouth shut until he gets re-elected. Of course he won't be able to do that. He'll stumble a bit, make some serious errors and may put his re-election in doubt for a bit. Overall though, he'll run a successful campaign that gets him back in the White House in 2013. Just in time to face a Republican-controlled Senate and House that make it their business to try to impeach for everything from Solyndra to Fast and Furious, prevent him from passing any serious piece of legislation and prevent him from filling countless judicial and perhaps 1-2 Supreme Court vacancies. He'll get nothing done, become politically paralyzed, and go down in history as the most conflicted and misunderstood president since Woodrow Wilson.

Assuming Mitt Romney is the GOP nominee.