Obama 52.8%
Romney 45.9%

Barack Obama 52.8%
Rick Santorum 46.1%

Obama/Biden 51.9%
Romney/Rubio 47.4%

In my opinion, Romney really can't stand up to Obama. He's an extremely weak candidate, and the only reason he will win the Republican Nomination, is because the only candidates who are facing him, can't exploit his weaknesses correctly. Gingrich and Santorum try repeatedly, but they always manage to sound like whiners. And Ron Paul won't touch Romney, so he's almost guaranteed to win. However, Obama, who can actually match Romney in funds, is a much better debater, and will point out Romney's hypocrisy like Gingrich never could. Rubio, will be able to narrowly allow a Romney victory in Florida, and I suspect he will be able to pick up Indiana narrowly as well due to Republican trends. But Obama will in turn get Missouri, whose conservative Republican electorate won't be exactly beaming with enthusiasm with Romney's candidacy, and the fact that a PPP poll has them tied here. And Arizona, which I suspect Obama will be as an underdog by most, will eventually upset Romney here, due to the hispanic vote, much like Harry Reid's victory in 2010. Overall, Obama's in a fairly solid position, and with Romney's continued gaffes "I don't care about poor people" "I like firing people", Obama faces no lack of campaign ad ideas :)

Obama vs Santorum

Jimmy Carter vs George H.W. Bush

Carter/Obama 51.6%
Bush/Romney 47.8%

Just a thought I had...

Obama 50.2%
Romney 45.6%
Johnson 3.1%

I honestly can't see Romney topping 47%, since the extreme conservatives, and the people who refuse to vote for him because of his religion. In addition, Republican enthusiasm has been lowering, leading me to doubt that there turnout will be all that higher than the Democrats. Also, Obama's approval rating seems to be making a comeback, as he is up +2 in the most recent Gallup Poll, his highest level since July.

Tossup States

Indiana- While, I still see Romney with an edge in the state, I feel that Republican support in Indiana is far overrated, as Indiana had 3% growth during the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately, it's rather unclear, as it seems no major polling agency has polled Indiana yet.
Romney 50.1%
Obama 47.6%

North Carolina- Currently, NC seems like it can go either way, hence the 40% victory. Obama should get a boost from the Democratic Convention in Charlotte, but it will all probably depend on the Unemployment rate, which is much higher in NC, at 10.0%.
Obama 49.2%
Romney 48.7%

Florida- I give Obama the edge on this one, but like North Carolina, it can easily go either way. The Republicans have their convention in Tampa, giving a similar boost. The Unemployment rate here is also 10.0% so I believe that the Republicans will actually do better in North Carolina then in Florida.
Obama 48.5%
Romney 48.3%

New Hampshire- Despite recent polls showing a Romney Victory here, I have my doubts about that. It will be close, but, I think Obama will be able to retain the state based on his 10 point margin victory in 2008. Also, New Hampshire has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 5.2%
Obama 50.6%
Romney 47.6%


Leaning States

Virginia

Obama 50.8%
Romney 46.7%

Pennsylvania

Obama 51.8%
Romney 47.5%

Ohio
Obama 51.9%
Romney 46.2%

Missouri
Romney 52.4%
Obama 46.8%

Georgia
Romney 50.6%
Obama 46.5%

Nevada
Obama 50.5%
Romney 47.1%

Colorado
Obama 51.6%
Romney 43.8%

North Dakota
Romney 52.5%
Obama 45.9

Michigan
Obama 53.5%
Romney 44.1%

Wisconsin
Obama 52.3%
Romney 45.9%

Minnesota
Obama 53.1%
Romney 45.1%

Mississippi
Romney 54.5%
Obama 44.6%

Iowa
Obama 51.9%
Romney 46.8%



Map
Tossups---Margin <3%
Lean------Margin 10-3%
Strong----Margin >10%

Obama 50%
Romney 44%
Johnson 3%
Other 2%

New Mexico
Obama 53%
Romney 32%
Johnson 14%
Other 1%

Johnson Best State Performance
New Mexico 14%
Arizona 8%
Colorado 7%
Montana 6%
Alaska 6%

Obama vs Romney

Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney