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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:46

Prediction Map
dnul222 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem294
 
Rep244
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem201
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos146
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-65252294-65
Rep+4+1+65000222179+65
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
84492753
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Final map for election

Cautionary note: ALthough there seems to be a slight movement toward Obama among independents the following states are almost evenly split and might make for a long night:

Virginia- closes early but third party takes a little over 2% and may cost the state to Romny. Obama +1
Florida - close but slight edge to Romney because of turnout in I4 corridor Romney +2
New Hampshire- tossup and ROmney's visit may help but right now slight tick to Obama +1

Iowa - seems to have settled in an Obama plus stage like the rest of the midwest Obama +2
Ohio-seems a little surer for Obama in my mind- Obama +2
Wisconsin +3 Obama

Nevada- turnout machine helps Obama +4
Colorado- early voting helps Romney +2


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 10:20:38 prediction Map
Senate races
Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana and Nevada + Dem

on the other side
Wisconsin, Montana, ND and nebraska + GOP

a wash in the end 53-47 which will cost McConnell minoirty leader status


House is a three seat gain for Dems, disappointment for them 196-239

loss of 2 governorships Montana and North carolina


In MN the two amendmendments may be defeated one for marriage and the other a poorly written voter ID law.....most compelling ad former wounded vet talking about his gay fellow soldier who lost his life but we should not let him down my saying he could not marry. You cna die for your country but not marry who you want to...

both amendments could go either way....

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-04 @ 11:21:22 prediction Map
Are you saying that Berkley(NV) is more likely to win than Baldwin(WI)?
Republicans win US Senate Races in TX by a 15 point margin, NE by a 10 point margin, ND by a 5 point margin. AZ and MT by 2 to 3 points. NV and WI are a statistical tie but I am predicting Democrats win WI.
Democrats narrowly win VA,MA,and CT, MO,IN,OH,PA,and FL by a 5-10 point margin. NM,MI,HI,NJ,and ME by 10-15 point margin.


Last Edit: 2012-11-04 @ 11:38:19

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 13:41:24 prediction Map
Yes, that is what I am saying based on three facts, Nev early voting is strong for Dems and 2nd the Dem machine in Nevada is strong and very active, third Wisconsin is evenly divided even if the President takes the state by 3-4%...Tammy though I like her is running about even which may not translate into a victory on election day as there is very little early voting in WI....

Anyway those are my thoughts...

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 22:49:29 prediction Map
I'd probably switch CO and VA. This is a very possible scenario though...

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-09 @ 06:23:31 prediction Map
Well looks like we got CO and VA and FLorida. I was very accurate with MN as the DEM wave in MN nmaterialized and both the state senate and state house flipped to DEM. DFLers benefited from support from Indies and some moderate GOP to overturn both amendments to constitution- one which would have narrowly defined marraige and the voter iD bill. It was the wealthy suburbs of the Twin Cites where the biggest turhnaround happened as they threw out every GOP member of the state legislature. MESSAGE- deal with economic problems and stay out of bedrooms!

Even Michele Bachmann in the most GOP district had to work so fard and spend 21 million to overcome a 2 million campaign from her able opponent....



User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 50/56 16/56 66/112 58.9% pie 8 1 614T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 11/34 43/68 63.2% pie 8 0 317T
P 2014 Senate 32/36 16/36 48/72 66.7% pie 19 13 240T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 2 162 97T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T
Aggregate Predictions 427/490 179/490 606/980 61.8% pie


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