Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	294
Rep	244
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	201
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	146

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-65	25	2	294	-65
Rep	+4	+1	+65	0	0	0	22	2	179	+65
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
84	49	27	5	3

Analysis

Final map for election

Cautionary note: ALthough there seems to be a slight movement toward Obama among independents the following states are almost evenly split and might make for a long night:

Virginia- closes early but third party takes a little over 2% and may cost the state to Romny. Obama +1
Florida - close but slight edge to Romney because of turnout in I4 corridor Romney +2
New Hampshire- tossup and ROmney's visit may help but right now slight tick to Obama +1

Iowa - seems to have settled in an Obama plus stage like the rest of the midwest Obama +2
Ohio-seems a little surer for Obama in my mind- Obama +2
Wisconsin +3 Obama

Nevada- turnout machine helps Obama +4
Colorado- early voting helps Romney +2

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 45

Slight change in states Iowa to Obama BUT more movement toward ROmney in %'s Romney can win this with a stellar debate performance AND this will go down as where debates changed perceptions of candidates.

Version: 44

Just a few % changes in my prediction for November. This could be my final map although i still say some states can flow back to Obama.

In the end I feel the house will be + a handle of Democrats and the senate will stay in Democratic hands almost where it is but the seats will change hands and some red states will see Democrats and some blue states may see GOP like COnnecticut. I feel in the end an unwritten note is the number of women who will be winning seats n the US senate.

Version: 43

This is my 1916 like map for a ROmney run for President, it is his high water mark in my mind, I expect a few states like Iowa, COlorado and Virginia to just as easily break for Obama the same day....but if ROmney makes a run this is what it could look like...then they will write about the mistakes he made in his campaign...still a lot of time left.

Version: 42

I have switched by calling of Wisconsin and Virginia benefiting Obama by a few votes....I still think it will be a close election but more nad more I feel that Virginia and Ohio will stay with Obama while FLorida, COlorado, Iowa and Wisconsin might join Indiana and NC for ROmney...

It remains to be seen how much damage his 47% video released now even though it was last May...

certainly the campaigns are being run at different levels of mastery. Obama at top of game while ship of state flounders while ROmney in a row boat with no oars...

Version: 41

My final September map thinking of post debates...I feel the economy will still hurt Obama and although I have him narrowly winning-about like Wilson did in 1916, I still feel this is a race Romney can win and he has marshalled some amazing suppot financially to do it.

Version: 40

I am back to my probable Obama map for the Fall - this might change if some movement towards ROmney Ryan is sustained through the convention and debates overcoming Obama's turn at his convention. But in the end it will be a base election with independents casting fewer ballots as most of us have made up our minds it seems...a big debate gaffe by either side could turn it into a close race for ROmeny victory or a rout for Obama victory-this is my optimistic map for Obama.

Version: 39

New prediction based on Ryan and Romney running a smart campaign and Obama and Biden running a well oiled campaign but traditional voting blocs doing their normal thing with seniors a little more democratic then normal.

Version: 38

Basically a close election with Romney-Ryan hammering home on economics and making some inroads in the public's mind. But in the end the trump card is Ohio which the Democrats retain by a narrow margin. There the auto bailout carries the day.

Version: 37

I switched Iowa back to Obama and increased lieklihood of Michigan going emocratic. Still CO and VA are equally volitile in my mind as Iowa, NH and Ohio...

Version: 36

I have moved Michigan back to Obama with recent polls having him ahead by six which changes my basic moving everyone with 2% for Obama or less into Romney totals.

Version: 35

I gave each state that was 1% Obama or less to Romney as I believe Romney will get a majority of undecideds. So Michigan, Virginia, FLorida and Iowa are one point Obama leads and thus for ROmney based on dividing undecideds.

Version: 34

Fluid political scene with ROmney capturing most of the indecideds. Weak economy is a large issue and some of these states are really tossups.

Version: 33

A possible scenario if ROmney does well but just not quite enough- a turnaround from 2000. I do feel there is softness in the midest less so in Ohio though but certainly in Michigan, Iowa and less so in Wisconsin. I feel it might return to Obama if Thompson is not nominated...

The senate too is becoming more possibly a GOP round even with a possible turnover in Massachusetts...COnnecticut and FLorida have weakened.

Version: 32

This is my July map as I will take a break for a few weeks and let the summer heat bake the candidates. Poor economic news for Obama will dim his chances even further but better than average economy in Virginia and Ohio will help, recent health care vote cuts both ways..

Version: 31

A change in my feeling about Florida and Virginia. There seems to be growing acceptance in some circles in FLorida that Obama has a decent chance there but the opposite is said to be true in Virginia where some fall off in support in Northern Virginia is being noticed.

By all means this is early yet but the trend seems possible to loss Ohio and Virginia yet retain Florida....possible..

Version: 30

Some movement in polls both ways to show a shifting ground for both men in this race. I feel that the state of Florida is in flux as their economy is starting to improve and Romney had to quiet the governor on his economic message.

Midwest is where Romney will choose his V{ and spend most of his time. His campaign is beginning to withdraw emphasis on some Western states.

Obama still has a large case to make and his message is garbled at best. Both bases are solidifying around their nominees and enthusiasm seems to be about the same nationwide but what is it in specific states is the key.

Labor will not advertise but use its money to organize on the ground and produce get out the vote messages in person to person messaging.

Version: 29

OK this is my current map and what I think the fall election could look like based on some current polls and averaging some others. Forexample, I do not see Obama behind in Michigan despite a recent poll so I averaged.

But no doubt about it the situation is very fluid...

Version: 28

I had not chosen to get to 269 or not but here I am. Collapse in Midwest of Obama campaign due to poor economy and counter cyclical nature of things. This is ROmney perfect election run in my mind.

Version: 27

Changing my %'s a bit plus a few moves in the election as Imight see it after a campaign. I can still see Virginia going for ROmney but at present this is what I have...if VA is for ROmney then it is a 1916 election as I think it is going to be and there will be recounts. Like Europe we would enter the chaos zone.

Version: 26

Well I return to my 2012 map and not with surprising results I have Obama winning by narrower margins taking the comments he has made and some of the analysis of the gay marrage issue as well as the economic issue I have adjusted some per centages in my mind.

But I think much will still happen and the electoral vote and popular vote will be closer than last time.

Version: 25

Okay time to go off the ranch forawhile-this is the Clinton/Bush map of 2016....yes Jeb vs Hilary a fantasy dream for many people.

I have Hilary making inroads with some older establishment types while losing some traditional older states which are less for the Clintons...the big cahuna would be a narrow victory for her in FLorida...

Well, it could happen in some alternative universe!

Version: 24

I switched NH back to Obama for now and moved Iowa back to Romney. I feel Iowa is usually counter cyclical and will vote against incumbents easily...very close though.

Version: 23

OK let us call this the post ROmney nomination bounce. There was some small blips up but it seems that the election will be for two things turnout-both brands not extremely popular. And for the indies as both parties are around 90% for their respective candidate.

Obama is weak in some blue states like Pennsyl, while do better in others like Ohio while barely losing in NH and NC while weakly ahead in FLorida and Virginia...the debates could prove a powerful plus for ROmney-there will be only three for sure..

Version: 22

OK here is my post convention bounce for Romney map...this one I might keep for a month or so...

It is based on margin of error plus undecideds....do I think it will end up this way - no way.

I still think as do most GOP operatives that Oabama will win but it remains to be seen where and how that will happen...

Version: 21

Well, I could not stand to be the average anymore so I updated with some current polls influencing my choices. I moved Arizona to more of a toss up GOP tilt and moved Florida into Obama's column, reduced NH margin for Obama. Do I think it will end this way-no way.

Version: 20

This is my last map until I get settled in Japan. I see new polls have Obama ahead in Ohio, NH and some other states but behind in Florida...I think the economy has helped Obama in Ohio with the resurgence of GM helping drop Ohio's unempoloyment less than national average. In NH the GOP primary season has helped reshape Indiependent's view of ROmney in a more negative light and Obama's ratings are back around 50% in NH.

SO I still see a close race in some of these states and ROmney winning the battle in FLorida, NC, Indiana and the lone NE elector at this time - an increase of 56 votes to McCain's total.

Version: 19

Romney runs near perfect campaign and Obama loses to him...this is what it would look like in my mind-close as we all thought but ROmney pulls out electoral victory.

Version: 18

I have shifted several states, Penn back to DEMS added Arizona to DEMS and subtracted Ohio....

There is not much to say from a statistical choice but I have a gut feeling choice in this map and await some great stats from Bonn when he has a chance to revive his page with actual data later in this election cycle.

I feel the one million signature in WI for the governor recall bodes well for November in the upper midwest...

Version: 17

This is my ROmney map against Obama with soem changes in the normal state of things...Obama eeeks out narrow win in Virginia but equally loses Pennsylvania by narrow loss. Of course this is just my post New hampshire glow for ROmney-long campaign to follow..

Version: 16

State of the match against GIngrich or ROmney in my mind...it is a long way to november and much will happen and the likelihood of a third party looms strong in my mind...an effective one possibly but certainly one which will gain % points....

Version: 15

With the shifting winds of politics I think ROmney still has the best chance for the nomination but the anti ROmney people are still there as evidenced by the Haley endorsement reaction.

Version: 14

Gingrich versus Obama - Gingrich runs a decent campaign of ideas but makes a few flubs here and there. Economy improves slightly giving Obama a break.

Version: 13

I just had the time and could not resist to make an Obama/Romney/Bloomberg map taking some of Perot's %'s and adding in demographics and some gut feeling-by no means an accurate guess.

Version: 12

Romney versus Obama

economy still sour, no reduction in spending and Euro collapses making ROmney look good for his economic expertise.

Best case scenario for GOP in my mind...

Version: 11

Romney versus Obama

A close race in some larger states. Generally Obama's margin falls except in a few states where local issues play like Arizona.

Version: 10

Obama versus GOP field at present Romney leading...the GOP Dukakis according to George Will...

Florida is an easy win with Hilary and do not think for a moment that can not happen should Obama feel the need...

Version: 9

Well, this is my current ROmney/Obama map based on some polls and feeling I have about some states. It would be close in some states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia and NC....and closer than you would expect in some blue states.

Version: 8

Romney versus Obama update

It seems that ROmney has some steam now and might get the nomination...but the conservative wing of the GOP is not happily endorsing him...a small fallout for Mormonisn in deep south but otherswise no effect in my mind.

ROmney will do well in New England and has a shot a COnnecticut too, while having shots at other DEM states...North Carolina may well be closer than close...

Version: 7

I am back to a Romney-Obama fight with the Democratic incumbent winning like Wilson did in 1916-barely..

This is last map for me until Thanksgiving-thanks to all for great discourse..

Version: 6

Well, I sat down with some statistics and used my reasoning to divide using current polls what I think the election would be like for Perry versus Obama.... I lowered turnout a bit which cost Obama a point or two, I figured higher defection among indpendents to GOP which cost Obama a point or two, then I took the minority populations and multiplied a little more to add %'s of ethnic diversity and turnout..in my opinion. Of course the real stats from Bonn will come in the Fall...so this is just an excersize of what might happen..

Version: 5

Here is how I think the current map of Perry versus Obama the key being Perry's SOuthwest/Southeast and Rust belt ability to gerner votes or not.

This is a fluid race and with the Fall might come some interesting stats from Bonn. Latest California poll shows a wide lead over Perry for Obama and since that is 10% of the country it must be balanced by %'s in the south going the other way...no surprise there...

key states
Southwest NMexico, Nevada and COlorado
Southeast North Carolina, Virginia
Rust belt Ohio, Pennsyl and Michigan

assumption Indiana returns to GOP fold-an assumption for sure no stats yet...

Iowa, WIsconsin are close too...

Version: 4

There is a talk in circles about Clinton running against Obama 1 in 4 of Democrats want this to happen. Bernie Sauders said someone should run against Obama as he has drifted to far to the right. Hilary said she is never running for political office again (maybe for Supreme COurt?)

Anyway there is a growing restlessness among the Dems...

In a primary between the two I would vote for Hilary this time...and I would not be alone.

But I will vote for any Dem instead of Perry...this is a Hilary versus Rick matchup...

Version: 3

This is my new map showing a Perry/Obama race. I believe if things get even dicier Obama may reach into his hat and pull a Clinton out for VP. Although it looks about even now in some polls, I feel that it is a long way to go....

Version: 2

In my second more nuanced map I shifted Colorado and reduced percentages for Obama. However, I feel Romney has significant baggage to gain the nomination and carries some of that into the election. Does it match Obama's baggage yes and no. The Mormon religion will be a wild card which I predict lessens the GOP percentage in certain southern areas. I feel this is why North Carolina will fall to Obama plus the fact that the state is healthier economically than most of the USA.

Here in MN the stupidity of the power struggle over the state budget has infuriated independents who feel that cuts should be made but that some things should be retained like quality education, infrtstructure and investment in resources. The GOP alienated the Independent candidate for governor who endorsed Dayton's plan. With the recall in Wisconsin many Minnesotans are not happy with the GOP. The center has shifted back to the DFL. Obama wins the state by at least 6 points against Romney if he gets the nod or more.

Version: 1

Well, it has been a great year for me, I managed a nice trip to Japan last fall for some work for a month. SInce I lived there for eight years it was nice to be there before the tsunami and its aftermath. We in this country have a lot to be thankful for...

I do think Obama will be reelected despite the economy but the turnout will be down for several reasons and the GOP will fail to pick some of thier stronger candidates like the governor of Indiana.

Version History

46: 2012-11-04 @ 10:16:51 45: 2012-10-19 @ 06:46:27 44: 2012-10-06 @ 14:16:56 43: 2012-09-29 @ 10:52:55 42: 2012-09-18 @ 16:09:05 41: 2012-09-08 @ 18:37:55 40: 2012-08-20 @ 06:27:53 39: 2012-08-13 @ 09:41:49 38: 2012-08-11 @ 06:12:50 37: 2012-07-28 @ 14:58:28 36: 2012-07-24 @ 14:53:18 35: 2012-07-22 @ 21:11:49 34: 2012-07-19 @ 17:40:07 33: 2012-07-15 @ 15:42:28 32: 2012-07-03 @ 11:55:39 31: 2012-06-26 @ 16:52:22 30: 2012-06-21 @ 10:07:57 29: 2012-06-08 @ 10:38:29 28: 2012-06-02 @ 05:50:46 27: 2012-05-12 @ 05:59:52 26: 2012-05-09 @ 21:35:44 25: 2012-05-04 @ 03:04:07 24: 2012-04-27 @ 16:49:50 23: 2012-04-20 @ 16:39:54 22: 2012-04-11 @ 06:02:54 21: 2012-03-15 @ 22:40:42 20: 2012-02-04 @ 11:11:51 19: 2012-02-01 @ 05:39:28 18: 2012-01-18 @ 06:29:30 17: 2012-01-11 @ 06:45:04 16: 2011-12-26 @ 17:35:08 15: 2011-12-18 @ 07:11:11 14: 2011-11-30 @ 10:07:38 13: 2011-11-26 @ 16:50:07 12: 2011-11-22 @ 05:31:38 11: 2011-11-10 @ 06:47:21 10: 2011-11-02 @ 12:29:13 9: 2011-10-20 @ 06:15:45 8: 2011-10-12 @ 13:36:56 7: 2011-09-30 @ 18:53:37 6: 2011-09-10 @ 06:43:05 5: 2011-09-05 @ 10:50:21 4: 2011-08-31 @ 13:47:02 3: 2011-08-23 @ 06:32:34 2: 2011-08-06 @ 18:50:51 1: 2011-08-04 @ 11:09:14 View Version

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 10:20:38
Senate races Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana and Nevada + Dem on the other side Wisconsin, Montana, ND and nebraska + GOP a wash in the end 53-47 which will cost McConnell minoirty leader status House is a three seat gain for Dems, disappointment for them 196-239 loss of 2 governorships Montana and North carolina In MN the two amendmendments may be defeated one for marriage and the other a poorly written voter ID law.....most compelling ad former wounded vet talking about his gay fellow soldier who lost his life but we should not let him down my saying he could not marry. You cna die for your country but not marry who you want to... both amendments could go either way....

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By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-04 @ 11:21:22
Are you saying that Berkley(NV) is more likely to win than Baldwin(WI)? Republicans win US Senate Races in TX by a 15 point margin, NE by a 10 point margin, ND by a 5 point margin. AZ and MT by 2 to 3 points. NV and WI are a statistical tie but I am predicting Democrats win WI. Democrats narrowly win VA,MA,and CT, MO,IN,OH,PA,and FL by a 5-10 point margin. NM,MI,HI,NJ,and ME by 10-15 point margin. Last Edit: 2012-11-04 @ 11:38:19

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 13:41:24
Yes, that is what I am saying based on three facts, Nev early voting is strong for Dems and 2nd the Dem machine in Nevada is strong and very active, third Wisconsin is evenly divided even if the President takes the state by 3-4%...Tammy though I like her is running about even which may not translate into a victory on election day as there is very little early voting in WI.... Anyway those are my thoughts...

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By: deleteduser (I-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 22:49:29
I'd probably switch CO and VA. This is a very possible scenario though...

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-09 @ 06:23:31
Well looks like we got CO and VA and FLorida. I was very accurate with MN as the DEM wave in MN nmaterialized and both the state senate and state house flipped to DEM. DFLers benefited from support from Indies and some moderate GOP to overturn both amendments to constitution- one which would have narrowly defined marraige and the voter iD bill. It was the wealthy suburbs of the Twin Cites where the biggest turhnaround happened as they threw out every GOP member of the state legislature. MESSAGE- deal with economic problems and stay out of bedrooms! Even Michele Bachmann in the most GOP district had to work so fard and spend 21 million to overcome a 2 million campaign from her able opponent....

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