Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	237
Rep	190
Ind	0
Tos	111

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
99	50	41	5	3

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 40

I'm back!

My sense is that the Ryan pick is going to be a big mistake for Mitt. Granted, he does make sense from a number of angles: he's acceptable to both the Tea Party and establishment, he's young, he's a reasonably good politician, and he'll probably make Wisconsin closer. But the problem is of course the Ryan plan. Seniors just don't tolerate having people talk of messing with Medicare or SS. They care about it a ton, they vote, and a lot of them won't vote for somebody who talks of messing with the entitlements even if they agree with them on everything else. I very much expect seniors to revolt, just like they have every other time the Republicans have pressed this issue. You'd think the Republicans would have learned not to mess with this issue by now. Apparently not so. I find this a surprising pick because it sure appeared to me that Romney has, up until this point, doing everything he can to distance himself from this issue. But as a Democrat I can say I'm delighted by this decision (though the idea of Ryan as VP should some weird fluke thing happen makes me want to throw up).

It seems to me that, if Mitt wanted somebody with a profile like Ryan as his VP pick, he would have been much better off with Pat Toomey. Toomey's many ties to tea party and conservative christian groups would probably comfort the base, but he has been making moves to the center, which would make the ticket more appealing to independents. He's reasonably comparable to Ryan in a number of other areas, and he comes from a state the Republicans desperately need to win. Granted, he would have done nothing to improve the Republicans' standing among women and latinos, two demographic groups that probably will be killing fields for the Republicans, (though neither will Ryan) which is why I still really think Susanna Martinez would have been the perfect choice. But she was really hurt by her obvious resemblance to Palin in age, gender and overall inexperience.

Version: 39

Obama vs Romney

Version: 38

Obama vs Santorum

Version: 37

Obama vs Romney

Version: 36

Obama vs Santorum

Version: 35

Obama vs Santorum

Version: 34

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 33

Obama vs Santorum

Texas should be a tossup (not that it really matters)

Version: 32

Obama vs Romney (the likeliest scenario)

Version: 31

A Romney victory scenario.

Version: 30

Obama vs Gingrich

Version: 29

Obama vs Romney

Version: 28

Obama vs Paul (just because I hadn't done it yet)

Version: 27

Obama vs. Santorum

Version: 26

Obama vs Romney (flip Ohio and Pennsylvania for a Romney victory scenario)


Merry Christmas to all!

Version: 25

Obama vs Gingrich

Version: 24

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 23

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 22

Obama vs. Gingrich

Version: 21

Obama vs. Cain

Politicians don't survive sexual harassment charges.

Version: 20

Obama vs. Romney

Key states to watch:

Ohio: Romney is gaining here and with the bad economy I decided to give it to him. Still the consummate swing state, which means it very well could go to Obama in the end.

Pennsylvania: Looks like Obama has regained a small lead here. The bad economy could still result in a Romney win but this is a slightly center-left swing state and I'll say big labor's turnout machine puts Obama over the top.

Virginia: Gonna be tough for the GOP to win here given the regional divides of the state. This swing state is kind of built for Obama, at least the northern part, and he's always been surprisingly popular here. An Obama win probably puts Kaine over the top as well.

North Carolina: Will be extremely close. I decided to give it to Obama this time. I think a combination of slightly lower evangelical turnout, the DNC convention and Obama's heavy focus on the state may be enough to put him over the top here also.

Florida: Could be very tight, perhaps closer than 2008. But Romney should do well among seniors and Rick Scott won't be enough to put the state in Obama's column. A 3-4 point Romney victory. But if Obama wins it's over for Romney.

Michigan: One of Romney's many home states, though the auto bailout should put the state in Obama's column. Still pretty close a la 2004.

Nevada: Romney's best chance to pick off a Southwestern state. The economy is wretched here, but I think the Nevada turnout machine will get enough hispanics out to win. Also a state where polls have generally underestimated Democratic turnout. But still a close race, with Romney perhaps boosting turnout in rural, Mormon parts of the state.

Arizona: Obama will most likely try to make a play here. The state is trending Democratic thanks to growth in Hispanics, but it's still a lean-Republican state and Romney will most likely carry it for 2012, albeit by a reduced margin.

Wisconsin: It'll be close (Wisconsin always is) but I think Obama has a clear edge here due to Democratic enthusiasm. Probably a 3-4 point win for him

Iowa: Another swing state that will probably fall into Obama's column. He's polling well here and the economy isn't as bad as elsewhere.

Version: 19

Obama vs. Cain

Version: 18

Obama vs. Gingrich

Version: 17

Obama vs. Perry

Version: 16

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 15

Obama vs. Herman Cain. Not that I think that'll happen.

Version: 14

The likeliest Obama vs. Perry map.

Version: 13

Easily the most plausible path to a Perry victory.

However, this is where the Pennsylvania GOP's plan to split up its electoral votes by congressional district could really backfire. Under the currents system, this is a Perry win, under the system they're considering, it almost certainly isn't. If the proposed system passes Perry will have to try to pry Virginia away from Obama and that'll be a significantly tougher sell. Not that I consider this a very likely map.

Version: 12

A more pessimistic Obama vs. Romney map.

Version: 11

Obama vs Huntsman

Version: 10

Obama vs. Romney

Version: 9

Once again Perry vs. Obama.

If PPP is accurate in saying that Obama leads Perry by 11 points (which it should be given its track record) this is what the map would probably look like.

Version: 8

Back to the likeliest Obama vs. Perry map.

As I said on CR's map, the two key groups to this election are Independents and Latinos, and Perry will struggle mightily with both, though the economy will make it closer than it should be.

This map would coincide with Obama winning the PV by 5-6 points - pretty much what PPP said.

Version: 7

Following the lead of several other posters here, this is my guess for a tied election (PV) between Obama and Perry. Ohio is the deciding state. Note that I don't think this will actually happen, but it is an important map.

Version: 6

Back to Obama vs. Perry due to new signs he's the front-runner.

Version: 5

Back to Obama vs. Romney.

NC still strikes me as suspicious, but I guess I'll finally give PPP the benefit of the doubt.

Version: 4

Finally, Perry vs. Obama. Like Bachmann, he's probably said a few too many loony things to actually be able to win, but he's a savvier politician than her and would do somewhat better than her at tapping into voter anger without sounding overly loony. Against Perry Texas would be competitive for Obama, though I doubt he'd be able to do well enough in the rural portions of the state to actually win there.

Version: 3

This is a fairly realistic map if Bachmann gets the nomination. Obama would be able to very effectively attack her as extremist given the different loony statements she's made and would thus scare many Independents and Moderate Republicans from voting for her. Still, a high unemployment rate and deep polarization would spare Bachmann from becoming the second Barry Goldwater. This would be accompanied by Democrats holding 52-53 seats in the senate, and, perhaps, a Dem takeover of the house.

Version: 2

Probably a worst case scenario for Obama. Unemployment stays high and Romney is the nominee. The country remains heavily polarized, so Obama has a respectable second place finish. This would probably be accompanied by the GOP gaining 5-6 senate seats (and holding the house of course). Obama holds on to Wisconsin thanks to Scott Walker enthusing the Democratic base and manages to get enough Hispanics out to vote in Colorado to win there also.

Version: 1

Assuming Obama vs. Romney.

Version History

42: 2012-11-04 @ 13:37:29 41: 2012-08-17 @ 22:13:50 40: 2012-08-15 @ 21:14:47 39: 2012-03-18 @ 23:25:09 38: 2012-03-17 @ 16:06:23 37: 2012-02-27 @ 15:34:56 36: 2012-02-23 @ 22:02:37 35: 2012-02-19 @ 15:21:19 34: 2012-02-10 @ 17:08:26 33: 2012-02-08 @ 15:18:56 32: 2012-01-28 @ 14:10:55 31: 2012-01-26 @ 14:45:39 30: 2012-01-22 @ 13:02:13 29: 2012-01-07 @ 12:07:33 28: 2012-01-05 @ 18:06:14 27: 2012-01-02 @ 23:22:31 26: 2011-12-24 @ 10:37:16 25: 2011-12-06 @ 18:04:06 24: 2011-12-04 @ 13:08:21 23: 2011-11-19 @ 14:13:11 22: 2011-11-17 @ 13:52:03 21: 2011-11-16 @ 19:21:10 20: 2011-10-21 @ 15:47:25 19: 2011-10-19 @ 11:11:51 18: 2011-10-18 @ 11:59:24 17: 2011-10-17 @ 18:58:04 16: 2011-09-30 @ 11:54:58 15: 2011-09-29 @ 18:09:53 14: 2011-09-26 @ 16:12:51 13: 2011-09-25 @ 12:06:03 12: 2011-09-24 @ 10:15:39 11: 2011-09-23 @ 14:11:48 10: 2011-09-22 @ 12:30:35 9: 2011-09-18 @ 18:37:33 8: 2011-09-01 @ 15:13:29 7: 2011-08-29 @ 13:17:56 6: 2011-08-24 @ 11:58:24 5: 2011-08-15 @ 15:07:19 4: 2011-08-12 @ 14:03:09 3: 2011-08-10 @ 14:09:30 2: 2011-08-09 @ 19:20:22 1: 2011-07-28 @ 20:31:50 View Version

Member Comments

By: EStreet (--KS) 2012-11-07 @ 23:54:26
Al, You probably don't remember this but here is a URL for a discussion we had last year on the presidential race. Long story short, you were right. Cruise or Lose is dead- good riddance. http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?id=750&action=indpred&s=submit

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