11/5/2012--Final: Obama 303, Romney 206, Florida (29EV) too close, but probably Romney. Obama may win Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada by <5, but wins all three. Watch NC, NH, Iowa and Colorado, as one or more could surprise (the last three have anti-incumbent streaks). Obama becomes second incumbent since Wilson to win with less EV than his first election. Pop vote: Obama 51.1, Romney 47.9

10/30/2012:One week out and I agree with the Atlas consensus. Too many polls show Obama with slight leads in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa; Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada will go Obama. Similarly for Romney in Florida and North Carolina. At this point, Virginia and Colorado seem the closest. Of course, there is no evidence yet as to how Sandy will affect this, except to point out that most of the states impacted are northeastern Blue states.

10/15/2012: Polls do show a discernible post-debate bounce for Romney; Biden-Ryan debate may have stabilized. Still, Obama seems safe for 271 EV, as he is still winning Ohio. But all blank states are tossups and can really go either way.

10/1/2012: The race stabilizes in President Obama's favor. At this point, Obama may have 277 Ev banked. Closest states: NC, CO, FL.

9/27/12: Too many polls of different types: Media (NYT, CNN, Fox), Old-style polling (ARG, Rasmussen--no cell phones), Partisan (PPP) and academic (Quinnapiac) all show the same trend: President Obama is increasing his leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and and maintains smaller leads in Nevada, Florida and Virginia (states listed in order of margin, not EV; source Leip, not RCP). If the trend holds, Obama may already have 277 EV banked.

9/17: Obama strong for at least 247; Romney for 191. Only REAL tossups at this point are Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa (58 electoral votes, all slight Obama); possibly Colorado (9, Obama) and North Carolina (15, Romney). That is it. As no poll shows the president losing Ohio(18EV), Obama may already have 265 (247 + 18)electoral votes banked.