PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:11

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep316
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem185
 
Rep257
 
Ind0
 
Tos96
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-10-2-137191222-137
Rep+10+2+137000222179+137
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
76432742
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Well, here it is. Final update.

Changes favoring the GOP since the last map: ME2 from Dem to GOP; CO from toss-up to leans GOP; and FL from leans to solid GOP.

Changes favoring the Dems since the last map: NV from GOP to Dem; ND and SD from R > 60 to R > 50; and IA and OH from lean GOP to toss-up.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 10

Changes favoring GOP: OK and WY from R > 60 to R > 70; WV from R > 50 to R > 60; Iowa from toss-up to leans GOP.

Changes favoring Dems: CO from leans GOP to toss-up; MN and MI and NM from GOP to Dem; MA and CT and WA from lean to solid Dem.


Version: 9

Change favoring the Dems: WV from Dem > 60 to Dem >50.

Changes favoring the GOP: MA and CT from solid Dem to leans Dem. CO from toss-up to leans GOP. NM from Dem > 50 to GOP > 40. MN from leans Dem to toss-up GOP.

Polls are dramatically oversampling Dems and still show Romney in a narrow lead. That's a wipe-out.


Version: 8

Changes favoring Dems: FL from solid to leans GOP. PA and CO from lean GOP to toss-ups. OR and MN from toss-ups to lean Dem. HI and VT from D>50 to D>60.

No changes favoring the GOP. Once again, changes mostly reflect changes in individual states and over-enthusiasm from a previous of my maps, instead of an actual change in direction of the race. Romney continues to do very well and with the current trajectory of the race, he will win by a substantial margin.


Version: 7

Changes favoring Obama: ME-2 from GOP to Dem. ID and WY from R>70 to R<60. IN from R>60 to R>50. VA from solid to leans GOP. NV and NH from leans GOP to toss-ups. MA from leans to solid Dem.

No changes favoring Romney. Once again, these adjustments are correcting a bit of wishful thinking, rather than a change in the actual direction of the race. In reality, the race continues to trend in Romney's direction.


Version: 6

Changes favoring Dems: NM from GOP to Dem; WA, ME-AL, and ME-1 from toss-up to leans Dem; CT from leans to solid Dem; IA from leans GOP to toss-up; TX and MT from R>60 to R>50.

Change favoring GOP: PA from toss-up to leans GOP.

Romney's lead continues to build in national polls, notwithstanding that most of these changes favor the Dems. That would be due to miscalculation on my part, rather than a change in the direction of the race.


Version: 5

Things are getting much worse for the president. Between his war with the Supreme Court, his almost certain defeat over Obamacare in June, gas prices, inflation, unemployment, and already having to play all the trump cards this early, i.e. "Republicans hate women," and "White people murdered my son, Trayvon," he has no arguments left. His dirty tricks have backfired so far (except for the Fluke one, which has worked for the time being). But it's a long time to the election. Obama can say Romney's boring. He can play class warfare. But he can't make Romney scary. Or a wingnut after the wingnuts just spent 6 months beating the tar out of him for not being wingnutty enough. This election will progress, and I think that by the time the debates are over, this will be what the map will look like. And barring an October surprise, this will be what it looks like on November 6.


Version: 4

Moved Iowa to the Dems and Maine (2nd CD) to the GOP. Also made changes in confidence and margins. This map is Romney v Obama which is what appears to be the likely matchup. VA, NC, NE (2), and IN are gone for the President. MT, MO, and AZ will not be targets this time around for him either, even though he's said they will be. He's also made whispers about going after GA, TX, and the Dakotas...but I don't think anyone believes he's serious in this climate. That leaves all GOP states from 2008 safe plus the 3 states and 1 district mentioned above. Also, FL and NH are leaning strongly to Romney. That leaves (in order of likelihood of a GOP win) OH, CO, NV, PA, MI, IA, and ME as the tossups with 8 other states possible if Obama crashes. In order of likelihood of a GOP win in these leaning Obama states, they are MN, WI, NM, OR, WA, NJ, CT, and MA.


Version: 3

A few changes. PA back to GOP and WI to Dems. Also a few margins and confidence switcheroos. This is Romney v. Obama.


Version: 2

Most states need no explanation. I have NC and VA as solid GOP because I believe any talk of Obama winning them again is just for show. There's no real possibility there. NE (district 2) and IN have already been basically written off by the Dems. I believe that FL, OH, and CO all lean to the GOP nominee (at this time, presumably Romney). WA, OR, CT, NJ, MN, and most of ME lean to Obama at this point in time, but they are much more competitive than he would like. That leaves the toss-up states. On my map, all the tossups were won by Obama in 2008 and any one of them would put the GOP nominee over the top if he/she were to lose CO (the most tentative "leaning" GOP state) and all my other solid and leaning predictions were still correct. If the GOP nominee wins CO and the other leaning/solid GOP states, he/she will need to win NONE of the tossups to secure the presidency. The GOP nominee probably has to win FL and OH to win. In order of current liklihood of a GOP win, the tossups are: NH, NV, IA, MI, WI, PA, and NM. Of these 7 states, I currently have the GOP winning the first 5. Also note that the 2nd congressional district of ME is currently a tossup, but has been tipped to Obama here (that 1 EV alone would not lead to a GOP winning the presidency if he/she fails to carry CO, however winning all of ME would). The major differences to this map from the last one are basically giving NM and PA to Obama. But that may change in the next few months.


Version: 1

The President is deflating fast. If the GOP Nominee wins the relatively easy Nebraska CD2, VA, NC, IN, and FL, he/she then only needs a few more electoral votes to win. This can be accomplished most easily by winning OH, which appears likely, and any 1 of the following 10 in order of likelihood: CO, NV, IA, NH, MI, WI, NM, PA, MN, ME. Currently, I feel that the Rep would win the first 8 of 10, but any 1 would suffice. Meaning if the race tightens, and Obama makes something of a comeback, the election could easily come down to OH and CO. If Obama continues to bottom out, the GOP will begin to watch OR, NJ, and WA, in that order. But that would require current trends to hold steady and not level out or rebound.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 46/56 30/56 76/112 67.9% pie 5 6 654T683
P 2020 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 6 211T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 3 14T192
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T149
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T153
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T760
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T103
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 797/918 536/918 1333/1836 72.6% pie



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