PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - me (I-GA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:54

Prediction Map
me MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
me MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem243
 
Rep295
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos81
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-9-1-116202243-116
Rep+9+1+116000222179+116
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
87443355
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

i will explain my logic tomorrow


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 53

I'm back! Just in time for the election. This is the last map I'll make before the night before the election, but post debates, it's hard too see romney going anywhere but up barring some unforeseen circumstances. For once, the election is his to lose. Consider:

-the two candidates are about tied in support right now. He has the challengers advantage though.
-Romney has money and resources, Obama doesn't. He wasted them, no other word for it. He went overboard on his negative characterization and spent so much so early pushing it into Americans barely tuned in heads. Predictably, it backfired. Once the debate came and they actually SAW Romney, they realized that he had very little in common with Obamas Romney, and discarded it because Obama had let the exaggerating get so out of control, it was no longer even comparable with the real guy. And so poof! Months of work squandered with nothing to show for it but an empty account.
-Romney can now pummel the swing states and even Obama leaning states with advertising, and obama is stretched thin with a last stand defense strategy. I doubt it will last long.
-the second and third debates were effectively draws, in that they helped niether camdidate, as debate polls showed. Obama won the second debate only because his expectations were so low. He legitimately did better than his opponent in the third, but all Romney needed to do was show voters he was competent and wouldn't nuke anyone. Mission accomplished. So once again, polls show that while voters say Obama won the debates, the net change for support is +0 and -1for Obama. Draws in effect.

So here we are with Romney having almost every advantage possible, from larger message (no one can objectively say big bird and binders of women are effective talking points), more resources, momentum, fired up base, etc. so I predict Romney will gain a lead in the next two weeks. It's his to lose.


Version: 52

post convention map. I dont really have too much to add to my previous anaysis except this: republicans had a mediocre convention, but a good candidate speech. democrats had a good convention, but a mediocre candidate sppech. overall democrats come out on top. now, on to the debates and heavy advertising...


Version: 51

Well, it's been a couple weeks, but I am back for a pre-convention map. I am relying a little bit more on polls than usual, in order to better show the change in the race for my post convention map, which I will do a few days after the dem convention. That is why PA is lean, NC is a tossup, and VA is going to Obama. I am still relying a little more on dynamics, because until the election is a couple weeks away, factoring polling more would make it a current day projection, not a prediction.


Version: 50

As you can tell, I expect a close election. This result might ultimately result in recounts in Colorado or new Hampshire. Many pundits are currently saying Romney is letting Obama define him and such. What they forget is that they are pundits. They may watch the election now, but most people don't. In fact, by using the Bain attack line now, Obama is using up his ammo when he should be stocking up. He is doing what Romney did in 08, using his resources and ammunition to build an early lead instead of a late one. It didn't work in Iowa or new Hampshire. I don't really expect it to work this time either, though the general is different from the primary, so I may be wrong. With the dismal economic trend, I don't expect obama's numbers to pick up much, and in fact Romney will probably see a small uptick in support and fundraising after he announces his choice for VP. It is hard to predict this early however, especially pre-convention, pre-debate, pre-running mate, etc. all I can do is look at the big picture, and right now I see a close Romney victory.

Final results:
Romney-49%
Obama-48%
Johnson-2%
Other-1%


Version: 49

As you can tell, I expect a close election. This result might ultimately result in recounts in Colorado or new Hampshire. Many pundits are currently saying Romney is letting Obama define him and such. What they forget is that they are pundits. They may watch the election now, but most people don't. In fact, by using the Bain attack line now, Obama is using up his ammo when he should be stocking up. He is doing what Romney did in 08, using his resources and ammunition to build an early lead instead of a late one. It didn't work in Iowa or new Hampshire. I don't really expect it to work this time either, though the general is different from the primary, so I may be wrong. With the dismal economic trend, I don't expect obama's numbers to pick up much, and in fact Romney will probably see a small uptick in support and fundraising after he announces his choice for VP. It is hard to predict this early however, especially pre-convention, pre-debate, pre-running mate, etc. all I can do is look at the big picture, and right now I see a close Romney victory.

Final results:
Romney-49%
Obama-48%
Johnson-2%
Other-1%


Version: 48

this map looks odd. that is because instead of using the percentages for eventual margin, I am using it for chance of winning. for example I think oregon has a 77% chance of going to obama, so I put it as >70%. confidence is also used for chance of winning, at the following increments:

tossup= <65% of going to favored candidate
lean = 65%-85% of going to favored candidate
strong = >85% of going to favored candidate


Version: 47

made a few adjustments, nothing major, just OH and VA due to new polling and confidence adjustments.


Version: 46

obama-49%
romney-47%
johnson-3%
other-1%

things could not be going better for romney, with fundraising, the recall, the obama campaign botching the bain capital attack, rebounding favorability, etc. however, campaigns have their high and low points, and this won't last. but I think its as close to a 50-50 as it has been in a while.


Version: 45

I highlighted the 10 tossup states as green.
light-lean-pretty likely to go towards said candidate
bright-solid-only changing in best or near best-case scenario
dark-strong-not gonna change.

of course this is tentative as polls aren't too reliable yet and circumstances and perceptions could be vastly different by nov.




Version: 44

2016 scenario 2:
Jeb Bush-49%
Martin O'Malley-48%

copy and pasted from last map-
We have 6 months to guess around with romney-obama. thats boring. so I am moving onto 2016 for the time being. I picked six possible candidates from both parties and assigned numbers on dice based on likelyhood of success as I prematurely see it. Then I roll the dice for a match-up.

Bush might have some trouble because of his last name, however as time passes I suspect dissatisfaction for georgie will have less and less of an effect on an election outcome, so that while will have had medium to major effect if jeb ran in 2012, it will have a minor effect in 2016. Jeb is able to get a lot of centrist which just tips the election in his favor. with no natural barrier against latinos, he heavily campaigns in the southwest and regains CO and NV for the GOP. O'Malley is likable, but not enough to counteract theffect of his decidedly liberal views on the slightly right leaning of the swingers.


Version: 43

2016:
(GOP)Chris Christie-50%
(Dem)Tim Kaine-48%
other-2%

We have 6 months to guess around with romney-obama. thats boring. so I am moving onto 2016 for the time being. I picked six possible candidates from both parties and assigned numbers on dice based on likelyhood of success as I prematurely see it. Then I roll the dice for a match-up.

I see both of thes guys as fairly electable candidates. Christie is currently flying high in his home state, so I gave him his home state. his blunt personality might help with the working class swingers, so I gave him the rust belt. Kaine is a southern centrist, so he does fairly well in the south, though not enough to carry many. I gave christie the election simply because Gop will have a built-in advantage, and what would likely close matchup, democrat fatigue and an optimistic GOP base could decide the election.


Version: 42

easter map.


Version: 41

real prediction.

(Dem)Obama-47.8%
(GOP)Romney-46.6%
(Lib)Johnson-2.6%
(AmE)Roemer-1.5%
(Jus)Anderson-0.5%
(Con)Goode-0.5%
(Grn)Stein-0.3%
Other-0.2

ten closest states are the tossups.


Version: 40

real prediction.

(Dem)Obama-47.8%
(GOP)Romney-46.6%
(Lib)Johnson-2.6%
(AmE)Roemer-1.5%
(Jus)Anderson-0.5%
(Con)Goode-0.5%
(Grn)Stein-0.3%
Other-0.2


Version: 39

Romney/Martinez-49%
Obama/Biden-46%
other-5%

no Iran. no other serious international incident. no awful dramatic economic downturn. yet romney still wins.

I think Obama is likely to win. but I am making this map to make a point. recently the notion has been going that barring some major crisis, romney can't win. I find this very naive.

first, lets look at history. just look at polling for ajust about any year, and you'll see it varies greatly over the months. many years, it indeed seems at some point that a win for the soon-to-lose candidate is inevitable.

second, lets look at romney's approval. it is very low. but I seriously doubt it will stay there. there are plenty of swing voters who simply aren't paying attention sure they read about a few gaffes and unpopular views in the news. but they aren't going to remember that come election time. what they will remember is the general election news that will be shoved down their throat. they'll remember the debates most of all, and say what you want about romney, but you have to admit he is competant and presidential-looking. he is good at debates, and no stranger to campaigning. many opinions are subject to change and barely formed.


Version: 38

Obama-33.4%
Santorum-33.1%
Johnson-32.9%
other-0.6%

Before I start, THIS IS NOT A SERIOUS MAP.

anyway, in this scenario, Santorum pulls off a miracle and wins the GOP nomination. libertarian leaning republicans grumble at nominating someone who is so socially conservative. ron paul supporters flee to johnson, especially once ron paul endorses. the temporary boom in support happens just in time for a few outlier polls to show johnson the 15% poll threshold to debate. he blows obama and santorum and his visibility and support soar. this is repeated several times as he takes support from centrists and populists from the middle, fiscal hawks and socially center-left GOPers scared of santorums extreme rhetoric, latinos due to an open immigration stance and a felling of disappointment to obama, and social liberals and peace activists frustrated with the Obama administration from the left

the result is an obama lead in the popular vote, johnson lead in EV, but with a GOP lead in house who gets to vote on pres.


Version: 37

who is more electable map.

red-romney
blue-santorum
green-no significant difference.

Electability isn't a uniform thing. I think Santorum, who could believably adopt a populist tone, might actually do better along the rest belt and surrounding areas and some anti mormon bigotry could lead to higher turnout for him in comparison to mitt. But he gets pretty much trounced everywhere else.

Higher percentages indicate bigger difference.


Version: 36

Obama-48%
Santorum-43%
Johnson-7%
Other-2%

My new Santorum-Obama map.

I fear I let my personal digust for Rick cloud my judgement in my previous santy map. He does have some populist appeal and rust belt strengths, never backs down, and isn't too shabby at debating. Maybe the whole contrast stuff will matter. but in the end I think in the end his mean attitude and extremism will do him in. consider these quotes(not gatherd by me):

“If the Supreme Court says that you have the right to consensual [gay] sex within your home, then you have the right to bigamy, you have the right to polygamy, you have the right to incest, you have the right to adultery. You have the right to anything. Does that undermine the fabric of our society? I would argue yes, it does. It all comes from, I would argue, this right to privacy that doesn’t exist in my opinion in the United States Constitution. In every society, the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included homosexuality. That’s not to pick on homosexuality. It’s not, you know, man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be. It is one thing.” ~Rick Santorum

“There are people who were gay and lived the gay lifestyle and aren’t anymore. I don’t know if that’s the similar situation or that’s the case for anyone that’s black. It’s a behavioral issue as opposed to a color of the skin issue, and that’s the diff for serving in the military.” ~Rick Santorum

“One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be. [Sex] is supposed to be within marriage. It’s supposed to be for purposes that are yes, conjugal…but also procreative. That’s the perfect way that a sexual union should happen…This is special and it needs to be seen as special.” ~Rick Santorum

”I don’t want to make black people’s lives better by giving them other people’s money.” ~Rick Santorum


“Let’s look at what’s going to be taught in our schools because now we have same sex couples being the same and their sexual activity being seen as equal and being affirmed by society as heterosexual couples and their activity. So what is going to be taught to our people in health class in our schools? What is going to be taught to our children about who in our stories, even to little children — what are married couples? What families look like in America? So, you are going to have in our curriculum spread throughout our curriculum worldview that is fundamentally different than what is taught in schools today? Is that not a consequence of gay marriage?” ~Rick Santorum

“The idea is that the state doesn’t have rights to limit individuals’ wants and passions. I disagree with that. I think we absolutely have rights because there are consequences to letting people live out whatever wants or passions they desire.” ~Rick Santorum

“What we should be teaching are the problems and holes and I think there are legitimate problems and holes in the theory of evolution. And what we need to do is to present those fairly from a scientific point of view. And we should lay out areas in which the evidence supports evolution and the areas in the evidence that does not.” ~Rick Santorum

“Suffering, if you’re a Christian, suffering is a part of life. And it’s not a bad thing, it is an essential thing in life … There are all different ways to suffer. One way to suffer is through lack of food and shelter and there’s another way to suffer which is lack of dignity and hope and there’s all sorts of ways that people suffer and it’s not just tangible, it’s also intangible and we have to consider both.” ~Rick Santorum

“I believe that any doctor that performs an abortion, I would advocate that any doctor that performs an abortion, should be criminally charged for doing so.” ~Rick Santorum

“The American Left hates Christendom. They hate Western civilization.” ~Rick Santorum

“The idea that the Crusades and the fight of Christendom against Islam is somehow an aggression on our part is absolutely anti-historical.” ~Rick Santorum

“The Social Security system, in my opinion, is a flawed design, period. But having said that, the design would work a lot better if we had stable demographic trends. We don’t have enough workers to support the retirees . . . A third of the young people in America are not in America today because of abortion.” ~Rick Santorum


not exactly appealing to moderates. He will do horrible among hispanics, and there is another factor many forget about: Gary Johnson.

the Ronulans do not like Santorum. He is a big neo and social conservative, but not too much on fiscal issues, the issues Paul and most of his supporters are very conservative on. If Santorum is nominated, I suspect many will leave in droves for Johnson. While I expect 3-4% going to him with romney as nominee, maybe 5 for gingrich as many look for better options, I suspect at least John Anderson's level in a Santorum scenario. This could really hurt him out west.


Version: 35

my updated gingrich map.

It turns out I was right about the idea romney was not inevitable. I am sincerely disappointed.

romney isn't exactly electable, but he certainly looks so compared to gingrich. I really do not think the obama lite arguement holds water. the moderates who are likely to determine the election see romney to the right of them and obama to the left, even if not by much. but that is clear enough to vote for change. the low turnout for romney idea does not hold water either, as poll crosstabs constantly show him doing better against obama with GOPers as well as independents. gingrich has baggage, an unlikeable personality, some easy to see hypocrisy, doesn't seem to be able to run a long campaign without imploding, and is farther from the center than obama. indeed, Obama just might be able to make the election a referendum on gingrich rather than himself. gingrich does have two strengths though: big ideas and debating skill.

the big ideas are a legitimate strength, but the debating skill effect is overestimated. First of all, there are only 3 debates. not a myriad that lead to his ressurection. Second, What makes him a good debater in the primaries won't necessarily help in the general. For example, attacking the media won't make you hero, it'll make you a jerk. moderates are not gonna fall for red meat as easily as liberals or conservatives. and obama probably will probably not lincoln-douglas gingrich for one reason: HE DOESN'T HAVE TO.


Version: 34

part 2 of the almost-rans.

Obama vs Paul Ryan

Ryan seems to me like someone who might get a good bit of crossover support from fiscally conservative democrats, but not centrist independents. he uses his midwestern advantage to win his home state and Iowa. He loses florida from the SS issue.


Version: 33

Obama vs Christie

I think christie would have been a little more electable than romney, because though he isn't too conservative to repel most independents, he is popular withe base, so he wouldn't have turnout problems. His bluntness might actually help him. he offers more contrast with Obama than obama-lite. While I do not think this will be too much of a problem, every little bit is worth something in what is probably going to be a close race.


Version: 32

Obama vs Christie

I think christie would have been a little more electable than romney, because though he isn't too conservative to repel most independents, he is popular withe base, so he wouldn't have turnout problems. His bluntness might actually help him. he offers more contrast with Obama than obama-lite. While I do not think this will be too much of a problem, every little bit is worth something in what is probably going to be a close race.


Version: 31

Well, Rick Santorum is surging in Iowa. How very, very, very sad. While I do not think him the most likely winner, It would not be a surprise if he won. So, accordingly, this is my Obama-Santorum map. I TRY not to let my personal feelings affect my predictions. If I did, GA, SC, and TX would also be added to Obamas column. maybe the dakotas and KS too.

While he wouldn't have much problem with turnout, he wouldn't get almost any swing independent support. He is simply too extreme and too unlikable. This will become very apparent in any debate. You cannot expect him to carry his home state, as they elected him out by a 17% margin. It is pretty hard for an incumbent to lose by double digits. conservative democrats that vote republican in national elections wont this time, opening up the south for Obama.


Version: 30

I am trying to do this map as a confidence map, with slight, lean, and strong. green represents true tossup. Romney vs Obama.


Version: 29

best case GOP scenario.

if my last map draws parallels to 1984, this does to 1980. a bad economy is combined with an Iran crisis where the incumbent provides weak leadership in the eyes of the people. Romney would have to be the nominee for this to happen. the GOP finally unites behind him while he gets a lot of crossover support.


Version: 28

Obama best case scenario.

I am fairly liberal with the margin (pun intended). But after the Reagan landslide after a late 1982 approval rating about where obamas is now, I am not gonna discount almost anything. Republicans would have to nominate Bachmann, and she would have to act even crazier than she does now. the economy starts to improve, a good bit of moderate republicans crossover and Obama voters have huge turnout to prevent a victory for the new Barry Goldwater. Obama runs a great campaign, Bachmann runs a poor campaign, and Johnson/Roemer takes almost exclusively from Bachmann.


Version: 27

(D)Obama/Biden-48.5%
(R)Romney/Martinez-47.4%
(AE)Roemer/Miller-3.4%
Other-0.7

The fact that Obama is the incumbent may tip the scales of a almost sure to be close Romney-Obama match up. the ten closest states are shown as tossups.


Version: 26

Obama-51%
Paul-46%
other-3%

Paul is definately a bit wacky, but with the electorate as a whole becoming more and more libertarian, I dont think he would do as bad as McCain. according to polls, Paul gets even more independent support than romney. His problem is with his party. Though I suspect some republicans who say they wouldn't would hold their noses and vote for paul, I would suspect low turnout to be a problem in states like NC, FL and VA, and some of the more moderate neocons might even vote for obama. Obama would get huge turnout from democrats to avoid a win by crazy ron paul. In the end he gains indiana and nevada because of their libertarian electorates, Iowa because of a high independent support and a paleoconservative republican base which wouldnt have as bad turnout for paul, and New Hampshire. New Hampshire is because of libertarian and anti incumbent tendencies and ALOT of independents.


Version: 25

Obama-29%
Huntsman-27%
Trump-42%
other-2%

Best case trump scenario.

As the economy gets worse, Obamas approval ratings drop to mid thirties. Huntsman is nominated and origanally is beatitng obama by 5-7%. But soon, Trump, who has made it clear does not like Huntsman, makes it clear that the independent run threats were real. He enters the race and to everyones surprose is taken seriously. Many conservatives are happy to flee huntsman for trump. After good debate performances, even conservative democrats want to vote for Trump. Obama becomes the favorite for 2012, but Huntsman sweeps among moderate independents and few are willing to vote for Obama with the nation in shambles. Trump continues to rise and puts out attack after attack on Obama. by election day, Trump is in first place and low turnout for Obama and Huntsman lead to a Trump victory.


Version: 24

This is my exaggeration map. obama vs romney. Obama strengths in the southwest prove to be stronger than expected, while the same can be said for romney in the northeast. After a bitter primary battle against gingrich, many conservatives, especially in the south are too bitter to vote for romney, leading to low republican turnout. This is somewhat counteracted by a strong Romney sweep among independents, which leads to extra strength in the midwest and the northwest. obama largely ignores the northeast because NH and ME are not very important while he takes CT and MA for granted. Romney, however, campaigns vigorously there, almost as much as the midwest. Obama focuses his campaigning mostly in the south and southwest. Cultural cues compound all this leading to a very strange map come election day. Romney beats obama in the popular vote by barely more than a tenth of a percent while obama gets the minimum required electoral vote count to win.


Version: 23

Dem: Obama-50.2%
GOP: gingrich-45.4%
AmE: roemer-3.5%
other-0.9%

It is sad when gingrich becomes your second most electable major candidate. If gingrich is nominated, the election becomes about him, not obama and the economy, the best way to win. there is so much the democrats could use against him, his arrogance, his elitism, not to mention the fact that not only has he had multiple affairs, he had an affair WHILE he was leading the impeachment against clinton for HAVING AN AFFAIR. not to mention by the end of his term as speaker of the house he was practically a disgrace. memories might be enough to kill a vote for him in the minds of voters. the only reason I have his margin less than Mccain is because of his debating skills.


Version: 22

D)obama-38%
R)gingrich-37%
I)bloomberg-24%
other-1%

bloomberg runs as an independent. I am definately being optimistic about bloombergs chances, but hey, the more green the better.

Though obama originally has a slight advantage over gingrich, It is erased from bloomberg taking about 55-60% of his support from obama. the media goes in a frenzy at a new ross perot, and that combined with dissatisfaction with the two candidates and good debate performances leads to strong showings in the upper midwest, west, and northeast.


Version: 21

democrat:obama-29%
republican:huntsman-29%
independent:bloomberg-22%
tea party:bachmann-19%
other-1%

a four way race.

as the economy worsens, bloomberg takes the risk and makes a a base out of dissatisfied liberals and moderate independents. meanwhile, huntsman surges in new hampshire, wins the state and uses the new momentum and fundraising to snag a florida win. he beats the fractured conservative base and becomes nominee. the conservatives decide that with obamas low reelection prospects, its worth the risk for the tea party's voice to be heard and that huntsman isnt near conservative enough. all four candidates are allowed to debate.






Version: 20

If romney won by the same margin as obama did in 2008.

the economy gets worse, obama proves to be indecisive in a crisis, and the blame gets put squarely on obamas shoulders.
romney takes the bluish purple states and sweeps the mid and southwest.

the 10 closest states are shown as tossups.

OR-49.1-48.8
NJ-49.1-48.4
MN-49.4-48.2
NM-49.9-48.0
ME-50.0-47.7
CT-50.0-47.3
MA-50.3-47.2
WA-50.8-47.0
DE-51.0-46.3
WI-51.6-46.0


Version: 19

THIS MAP, UNLIKE MY LAST MAP, IS SERIOUS.

apparently I must put this because heavy implication just isn't enough for some people.

anyway, this my real huntsman vs obama. and don't go saying that hes never going to win, this is just what if.

Many nonconservatives believe huntsman is the most electable. despite being a huntsman supporter, I dont believe that. I think romney is more electable. my reasons for this are:

1)that he may be a bit too moderate as the republican party is moving pretty far right, and his moderate views compounded with his mormonism might turn off southern evangelicals in NC and VA enough that they consider it not even worth it to vote, possibly tipping the scales in obamas favor.

2)He so far hasnt run a very good campaign. despite being the only true centrist in the field, he just in the last week or so rose to a whopping 3%. He appears to not be spending money too well. his campaign isn't awful, but it is certainly not good.

3)debates. the foreign policy debate was probably his first good performance. his other showings have been poor to average.

This being said, His pragmatic centrism will appeal to swing independent voters. and I think he could possibly do better than romney in the southwest.

all this however, is speculation. He is not recognized by enough people to have an accurate general election match-up.
He is kind of a wild card for the general.


Version: 18

huntsman vs obama

How I wish it anyway...


Version: 17

perry vs obama.

when perry first entered the race, I figured that the map would look like 2008 minus indiana and maybe the southern states obama carried. but after seeing his trainwreck of a campaign, disastrous debating skills, general nonintelligence and inability to remember three departments, I think that if he was the nominee the election would be an obama landslide.
this might be a bit of an exaggeration, it might not be.


Version: 16

romney-49.0%
obama-47.8%
other-3.2%

first of all, let me clear michigan out of the way. except for one surveyusa poll, all credible polls have shown it to be a tossup. dynamics are heavily in favor for romney, with it being his real homestate, his popular michigan governor father, low obama approval and a very poor economy. if romney is smart, and I think he is, he'll make a play for it. no matter who wins it will be close.

10 closest states (the tossups) are in this order:
colorado-48.8 to 48.5
michigan-48.9 to 48.3
florida-49.4 to 48.4
north carolina-50.0 to 48.7
virginia-50.2 to 48.5
ohio-50.8 to 48.7
nevada-50.5 to 48.3
iowa- 51.0 to 48.0
arizona-51.9 to 47.3
pennsylvania- 52.2 to 47.3

on a side note: I do not get why when people on this site have close maps, they maintain 60% in all the states obama had 60% last election and the same for the republican candidate. the only reason that happened was because obama won by more than 7%.



Version: 15

2000 if gore and bushes pop vote totals were switched.

As most of you probably know, gore got more votes than bush, half a percent more. he lost the election because he couldnt get *COUGHCOUGHwascheatedoutofCOUGHCOUGH* floridas electoral votes. So what i did here was switch the winning margin by giving bush .25 and taking .25 away from gore in all states. quite a bit changes actually.
NY goes from >60 to >50
WA goes from >50 to >40
OR, WI, IA, and NM go from gore to bush.
OH goes from >40 to >50


Version: 14

*****NOT A PREDICTION*****

According to 2008 exit polls, which party (or independents) is most prevalent in each state.

My last map is conservatives vs liberals, if you want to check that out. the percentages mean zccording as follows:
30: prevalent by 1-4%
40: prevalent by 5-8%
50: prevalent by 9-12%
60: prevalent by 13-16%
70: prevalent by 17-20%
80: prevalent by more than 20%
90: most rep/dem state in nation.
Ind 90: tie.

I admit this is rather strange looking. anyway ill answer any questions about specific results.


Version: 13

*******NOT A PREDICTION*******

this map is done by diffrence in conservatives and liberals in each state ACCORDING TO 2008 EXIT POLLS. NOT OPINION.

conservatism vs liberalism.

blue means there are more conservatives in said state than liberals, red means vice versa. percentages mean by how much as according to as follows:
30%-1 to 6% more
40%-7 to 12% more
50%-13 to 18% more
60%-19 to 24% more
70%-25 to 30% more
80%-more than 30% more
90% most conservative/liberal state in country.
basically its in groups of 6.

I was surprised by alot of this, but what do I know. Ill answer any questions about specific percentage difference for any state. Ive also got data for parties, and Ill put that map up in a week, more or less. or I might forget.

moderates were not taken into account.


Version: 12

(R) chuck hagel.....38%
(D) zell miller.....36%
(I) bernie sanders..25%
other................1%

Now I know this will NEVER happen, no matter how much I wish it would, because democrats would never nominate zell and republicans would never nominate hagel. but this is just a fun scenario.

after the party nominations, liberals are furious that both major candidates are conservatives. they look around for a progressive third party challenge and finally someone volunteers: the epitome progressivism himself, bernie sanders.
at first it looks like this means hagel is a shoe-in. but it soon becomes clear that many republicans cant bring themselves to vote for someone who so constantly mocks the republican party, despite being a republican himself. most view miller as conservative enough, especcially in the south, and vote for him, making it a threeway race until election day. the republican house holds their nose and chooses hagel.


Version: 11

(D) zell miller.....39%
(R) chuck hagel.....35%
(I) bernie sanders..25%
other................1%

Now I know this will NEVER happen, no matter how much I wish it would, because democrats would never nominate zell and republicans would never nominate hagel. but this is just a fun scenario.

after the party nominations, liberals are furious that both major candidates are conservatives. they look around for a progressive third party challenge and finally someone volunteers: the epitome progressivism himself, bernie sanders.
at first it looks like this means hagel is a shoe-in. but it soon becomes clear that many republicans cant bring themselves to vote for someone who so constantly mocks the republican party, despite being a republican himself. most view miller as conservative enough, and vote for him, making it a threeway race until election day. the republican house holds their nose and chooses hagel.


Version: 10

Obama vs Gary Johnson.

HIs libertarianism and socially center left policies would attract conservative democrats, locking up southern deep states. It might also help in NH, which is pretty libertarian for a northeast state and where socially center left would have alot of appeal. He would have strong regional and hispanic influence, therefore winning the southwestern tossups (NM,NV,CO). however many socons might stay home and he might get labeled too libertarian. It would come down to the mid atlantic. Since im not sure how he would do in the midwest, i put those states as all lean democrat.


Version: 9

dem-obama/biden-45
rep-perry/rubio-36
ind-(possibly AmericansElect)-hagel/paul- 18%
other-1%

hagel takes a huge chunk of republican support by moderates, libertarians, and westerners. as time goes on he gains steadily in polls by preaching bipartisanship which works more than expected because modt americans are fed up with the sincere stubborness of the parties. he takes some independents and a few conservative democrats who are willing to vote for him because he is willing to speak out against the republicans. although he does get a little less than perot, his support would be more regionalized and therefore he wins a few republican leaning, independent friendly western states.


Version: 8

Most likely obama romney tie.


Version: 7

As I did a best possible scenario for republicans last map, here's my best possible democrat scenario. unemployment falls to 4 or 5 %, obama comes up with an economic plan that passes congress and completely turns around the economy, al qaeda is completely destroyed, the situation in Afghanistan is turned around, and us trroops take down qaddafi. Obama gets credit for all of it and the republicans nominate Sarah Palin. She makes even more gaffes and makes herself look even dumber than in 2008. Ron paul goes third party and takes some of the little remaining republican vote, but taking almost none from obama.


Version: 6

the most the republicans can possibly hope for. unemployment reaches 15%, a big scandal or two comes up, Obama gets a Kennedy type primary challenger, and giuliani is the nominee, so he can win new york because of high obama disapproval. i suppose if romney was nominee, MA and NY could switch, but those to are so democratic it is questionable whether they could be lost to even a native son. but hey, IN, THE republican stronghold in the midwest, went democrat, so in even worse conditions(party roles reversed) almost anything is possible.


Version: 5

obama vs palin. enough said.


Version: 4

obama vs pawlenty. pawleny is boring, but this matchup is very hard to predict. it will probably come down to the midwest.


Version: 3

This is obama vs perry. I don't honestly think someone so like bush could win the general election. the south, maybe, but in all other regions obama will trounce him. the big tossups are florida and NM a neighboring state.


Version: 2

this map may look odd but there is reasoning behind it. as i said in my last map michigan likes roney and if romney is smart, which i think he is, he'll try to win it. obama isnt that popular in PA and romney is. VA and NC are becoming less and less republican, while MI and MN are the other way around. however, MN is still pretty safe in the obama column, i think. but next election it'll be more competative.


Version: 1

obama vs romney.

The good thing about me predicting this matchup is im not sure who i'd vote for, so its unbiased. i think obama will win but romney easily could to. i think the five key states will be MI, VA, NC, FL, and OH.

a few notes.

va and nc- many will probably be wondering why nc is dem when va is not. the reason is obama has relatively high approval ratings in nc for a southern state, moreso than va. plus, nc is becoming less and less republican. i think both will be close, but i think obama is more likely to win nc than va

mi- romney is very well liked and knows it. hes gonna play hard for mi, especially obama isnt that high in approval.

chances- 54% obama, 46% romney


Version History


Member Comments
 By: me (I-GA) 2012-11-08 @ 21:08:58 prediction Map
well, I am very sad at the result of the presidential race. No avoiding that. but I can still be happy knowing that teatards like allen west(my least favorite congressman) and joe walsh were unseated, and the insurgents akin and mourdock were soundly defeated. also, against immemse odds, my blue dog incumbent congressman, john barrow, won by 8%. the election of divisive extremists elizabeth warren and alan grayson(shudder) are less heartening. overall, not too happy, but there is silver lining.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2012 President 49/56 38/56 87/112 77.7% pie 54 1 561T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 94T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 41/52 19/52 60/104 57.7% pie 50 - 41T231
P 2008 President 44/56 25/56 69/112 61.6% pie 76 1 1031T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 32/52 16/52 48/104 46.2% pie 29 - 80T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 35/49 11/49 46/98 46.9% pie 19 - 72T235
P 2007 Governor 2/3 0/3 2/6 33.3% pie 3 60 155T167
Aggregate Predictions 235/301 128/301 363/602 60.3% pie



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