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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:13
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Version: 1 My first prediction for the cycle, more than 15 months out. I looked at the polling averages for Obama vs. Romney, Bachmann and Perry. In states where only Romney has been tested against Obama (of the three aforementioned Republicans), I conjectured where Perry and Bachmann might stand. The reason I am taking THREE Republicans into account is that I am not all that confident in Romney's ability to win the nomination. Romney aside, I think Obama has a real shot at expanding the playing field in the West: winning Arizona, securing Nevada and Colorado and narrowing the margins in Texas.
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