PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - SouthernLiberal (--GA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:4

Prediction Map
SouthernLiberal MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
SouthernLiberal MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem347
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-1-1-12282347-12
Rep+1+1+12000222179+12
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
100504154
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Just coming back here, because the weather has improved from earlier forecast in and throughout the state of North Carolina and there is some talk out there that if Virginia and Florida go back for Obama/Biden -- which seems increasingly likely because of turnout both today and in early voting (in both those states) it bodes well for Obama in North Carolina.

I know we already have the results in Dixxville Notch, New Hampshire that showed the two nominees tied, but I would have to say that would NOT be what Romney needs to continue this day to win. Plus Romney having a campaign rally in Ohio today is just goofy since it takes away from what that campaign really needs to focus on to win and that's people voting.

Am very proud either way (but of course I have a bias) that there is a lot of people voting today and in early and absentee voting.

Increasingly looks like I'm going to be wrong regarding my current home state of Georgia flipping to Obama/Biden, but I still think Obama does quite respectively here to make it a 49% - 51% result against Romney. Georgia will start to become more competitive as the share of white voters is down below 60% and might quite possibly go Democrat in the Presidential election as early as 2016. I think the rain in Georgia is going to dampen the voter turnout for Democrats here for election day voting. The rest of this is based, again, on the nytimes.com FiveThirtyEight blog which does have Florida (as well as the rest up above) going to Obama and I think he will take it and I feel his share along the I-4 corridor from St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach will be higher than the pundits and Romney camp will have wanted (as well as in southeast Florida coast.) Still feel the Democrats will retake the U.S. House but have it down slightly to a 49 seat pickup for the Democrats for a new lineup come January 2013 of 242 D 193 R as compared to this last two years of 242 R 193 D. Nancy Pelosi will be back in as Speaker of the House.

A few changes since Sunday:

Georgia: I have a feeling Jack Kingston, R. stays in, while John Barrow, D. loses to Lee Anderson, R. But the Democrats make a surprising gain due to early and absentee voting in Gwinnett County of defeating Rich Woodall, R. in the 7th and putting Steve Reilly, D.

Kentucky: Thomas Massie, R. replaces the resigned Geoff Davis, R. in the 4th.

Nebraska: Lee Terry, R. stays in as John Ewing, D. fails to become the first African-American elected from the Corn Husker state.

North Carolina: Republican Patrick McHenry survives stiff challenge, but Democrats still pick up the seat of retiring Sue Myrick, R. in the 9th and also take out incumbent Virginia Foxx in the 5th District with Elizabeth Motsinger, D. and retain Heath Shuler's 11th. But the Republicans pick up retiring Brad Miller, D.'s 13th.

North Dakota: Republicans keep Berg's seat as I'm going to be moving this U.S. Senate seat to have Berg elected to Kent Conrad, D.'s seat over Heitkamp, D. unfortunately in my opinion.

So, it will still be seen as the Year of the Woman II altogether only at 84 D 26 R in the U.S. House or 110 women altogether when they reconvene in January 2013. The amount of Freshmen is cut a bit from my earlier prediction from 113 to 111 with the lineup of Freshmen for January 2013 being 85 D 26 R or 111 Freshmen in the U.S. House.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2013 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 230 138T
P 2012 President 55/56 45/56 100/112 89.3% pie 4 0 115T
P 2012 Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 0 56T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 0 89T
Aggregate Predictions 99/102 71/102 170/204 83.3% pie


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