PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - KS21 (I-KS) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:28

Prediction Map
KS21 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
KS21 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos29
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
102514254
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

In the electoral college (although not the popular vote,) this will be a blowout.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-11-15 @ 22:16:47 prediction Map
This election was, in many ways, inconclusive. While Obama managed to win comfortably, in the Electoral College, I'm not sure how much of that was an embracing of Obama as a dissatisfaction with Governor Romney. For the Republicans, this cycle, along with the last, were lost opportunities. While the Republicans have seen a net gain in Congressional representation, they have thrown away too many races (WA-1 2012, NV-Sen 2010, CO-Sen 2010, DE-Sen 2010, MO-Sen 2012, IN-Sen 2012, among others) by running candidates who were, in blunt honesty, out of touch with reality. This is but a symptom of a larger trend. David Frum had a great article out in this week's Newsweek about the Republican Party becoming the party of white men. The Ryan budget epitomizes this predicament- while protecting the current safety net for current retirees and people my parents' age and tax breaks for those in the top bracket, my generation and the poor were going to bear the brunt of the cuts. It is policy that will not win elections in the long term for the GOP- The Grand Old Party's base is getting older and whiter at a time that it cannot afford to do so. Texas, as Sen.-elect Ted Cruz has alluded to, will eventually become blue if the GOP's Hispanic problem is not solved. And once Texas goes, it's lights-out for the GOP. An apathetic, and young, voter I know in Wichita says that she made up her mind to vote for Obama because she couldn't vote for someone who was against equal rights for gays. For better or worse, the younger section of the electorate is more socially libertarian than ever. Until this year, gay marraige had never passed a popular referendum. It passed in three states on November 6. Marijuana legalization, for recreational purposes, was "legalized" (I envision coming court battles in the near future,) in two states. Medical Marijuana came surprisingly close to passsing... ...in Arkansas. Times are changing. And the GOP is not ready for them.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-11-15 @ 22:19:28 prediction Map
Also, we'll see if our increasingly polarized parties realize that working together is actually a good idea in the upcoming debate over what to do with the "Fiscal Cliff." I pray that for the sake of this nation we can get some sort of "grand bargain."

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-17 @ 11:51:39 prediction Map
KS, congratulations on having such an accurate map for this cycle. Nicely done sir. I had a better prediction model myself this time, only missing four states.

There are many parts of your analysis I agree with and some that I don't. What I don't agree with is not as important as what I do agree with. If you like you can go over to my page and check out my thoughts on scrapping the electoral college, the new majority, the broken center-right coalition, failed candidates/thrown away seats, speculation that the GOP should become more libertarian, and how currently the Republicans are a minority, second party now. They will be for a long time too.

Don't worry about the fiscal cliff either. After a loss like this the Republicans will cave to the Democrats demands. It won't really be working together as the Democrats won't compromise on any but scraps but that's just the way it will be. I really don't care anymore anyway.

Good to see you KS.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-11-18 @ 15:13:37 prediction Map
Thank you very much, CR.

I've witnessed so much polarization to the point where I've lost faith in the ability of our country to do great things together.

First, the loss of moderates, at the hands of the other party and through primary challenges, in the past few years that it is sickening. The old Democratic Party in the South is more or less gone, Landrieu and Pryor will most likely be defeated as it stands now. It was Northern Republicans and Southern Democrats that led the way in negotiating compromises and their ranks are being depleted quickly. And even out in our area of the country, things keep getting more polarized. The Kansas Democratic Party is more of joke (and more liberal) now with Sebelius in DC, and the Republicans just tossed out over a half-dozen moderate Senators in the August primary. And over in your state, Claire McCaskill was allowed to live only because of the increasingly right-wing GOP. While I'm happy to see Claire McCaskill re-elected, I miss the days when the MO GOP would nominate people like Kit Bond instead of Todd Akin.

Even if the Democrats get what they want in the fiscal cliff negotiations, I think that would not even solve have of our problems. One of the good things about the post-Bush GOP is that it seems willing to tackle entitlements. In my opinion, they've gone too far with what they'd like to cut back, but they at least realize there's a problem. Most of the liberals I know are oblivious to the entitlement problem, and when I float the idea of potentially raising the eligability age for Medicare, they look at me as though I was insane. Tax hikes aren't going to fix the problem, just like nothing but cuts aren't going to fix the problem. With Dick Lugar on the way out of Congress and Alan Grayson coming back, I wonder if either side will be able to sacrifice ideology for compromise.

Good to hear from you as well.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 31/35 24/35 55/70 78.6% pie 5 2 67T
P 2018 Governor 33/36 27/36 60/72 83.3% pie 3 3 18T
P 2016 President 47/56 26/56 73/112 65.2% pie 7 0 496T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 7 1 164T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 110 72T
P 2014 Senate 29/36 22/36 51/72 70.8% pie 48 1 200T
P 2014 Governor 29/36 16/36 45/72 62.5% pie 25 1 145T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 2 1T
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 28 0 47T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 37 0 1
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 28 5 2T
P 2010 Senate 37/37 30/37 67/74 90.5% pie 203 0 2T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 146 0 17T
Aggregate Predictions 386/428 280/428 666/856 77.8% pie



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