Final prediction at 1pm on election day.

The hardest to predict are CO and VA.
I'm predicting an Obama victory in the popular vote between 0.75 and 1.25%

Updated Nov 4th.
Changes from last time: Obama consolidates NV and picking up VA and OH.
while I have 6 toss-ups, I think FL is breaking for Romney and NH, IA and OH for Obama. So the true toss ups for me are still VA and CO.

Projection as of Oct 18th with Romney +1 on national polls average (Gallup +7) and expecting a Romney victory of around +3 on election day.
Looks like Romney has been able to bring Florida, North Carolina and Virginia from toss-ups to almost leaning Romney.
And while all the attention is centered on the toss-up states, looks like NJ is getting closer than the Obama campaign might like and AZ closer than the Romney campaign might wish.

Post Akin scandal map - assuming Akin stays in the Missouri Senate race (as situation reported at 2.30pm CST Aug 21st).
Giving now Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire back to Obama.
And changing Colorado, Michigan and NH from toss up to lean Obama. And changing Missouri from lean Romney to toss up.
I think I was very generous to still give Missouri to Romney at the end.
With Akin not going away, this changes the race from 100% economic issues to a mix of social and economic issues. And in this election cycle, Republicans are in the minority on social issues. It also allows the Obama campaign to paint an entire narrative of the Republican party being anti-women; and with Akin on the ballot, it will keep coming back to affect other senate races and the presidential campaign by tying him to Ryan.
The only way out I see if for the Romney campaign (and even more importantly, for Ryan) to come out even stronger against Akin and convert him into a true pariah.

Initial reaction of the effect of picking Ryan as Romney's VP:
I'm swapping Wisconsin and Virgina from Obama to Romney and Florida from Romney to Obama, for an initial gain of 6ev for Obama from my previous prediction.
But I also switched Colorado and NH from slightly Obama to toss ups. Missouri from toss up to slightly Romney. Texas from slightly Romney to solid Romney. AZ and WV from solid Romney to slightly Romney.

Romney vs Obama / Jul 23

My first version of an Obama vs Gingrich race.

My first prediction with an Obama vs Romney race.