Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2011-07-26 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	277
Rep	261
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	249
Rep	170
Ind	0
Tos	119

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-1	-82	23	2	277	-82
Rep	+6	+1	+82	0	0	0	22	2	179	+82
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
84	45	29	5	5

Analysis

Romney/Martinez vs Obama/Biden

A classic election that is very competetive, that an incumbent narrowly pulls out. Obama finds ways to tie Romney to Bush. Martinez is attacked for her lack of experience and does not appeal to conservatives as well as some had hoped. Romney is attacked for being a flip flopper and that, perhaps like John Kerry, costs him the election.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate	28/36	14/36	42/72	58.3%	1	442	308	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	13/36	41/72	56.9%	1	442	224	T	300
2012 President	50/56	34/56	84/112	75.0%	1	469	630	T	760
2010 Senate	28/37	13/37	41/74	55.4%	5	172	375	T	456
2008 President	47/56	27/56	74/112	66.1%	70	128	734	T	1,505
2008 Senate	29/33	13/33	42/66	63.6%	3	108	316	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	9/52	0/52	9/104	8.7%	1	-	235	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	28/49	4/49	32/98	32.7%	3	-	118	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	3	91	1	T	167
2006 Governor	19/36	6/36	25/72	34.7%	1	25	310		312
Aggregate Predictions	269/394	127/394	396/788	50.3%

Links

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