PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - bluemcdowell (D-WV) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:85

Prediction Map
bluemcdowell MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
bluemcdowell MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem290
 
Rep248
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem237
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos95
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-4-1-69252290-69
Rep+4+1+69000222179+69
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
93493455
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

My next if not final map version 85 is now complete. I could make a 86 map version if a "November surprise" or a "historic gaffe" is made but as for now I will leave my map version number 85 as is.

I don't know if Sandy will be a factor or not. If it is PA and NH might be affected PA especially. We just don't know yet what Sandy's impact will be if any at all.

I didn't have to change much at all on this map. As for states I only flipped CO and that's it.

I moved MI to lean and that's it. Ithought of moving AZ to solid but i kept it a as lean. But the only thing that will matter in MI and AZ especially is the final margin and that's it.

I thought about the same in NV from tossup to lean but I didn't. I kept WI as a tossup but it could be lean as well.

However I have noticed that the voter turnout in the red (blue on this site) is somewhat higher right than in the blue (red on this site) states. The question is who will turn out in the "purple" states. That too will decide the election as well. If the anti-Obama turnout is much higher than the pro-Obama turnout this could be a major surprise which is possible. This will be very interesting to watch indeed.

It looks like the entire South might now be solidified for Romney as his toughest state to carry VA is about a 51/49 split right now. Still VA's much too close to call even at that.

Right now it's still really all about OHIO OHIO OHIO. My neighbors to the northwest will probably decide it all the way it looks right now. Obama is still surprisingly enough in the lead up there it seems.

WV could actually go 2 to 1 Romney, perhaps KY as well. We're moving into ID, UT, WY, AK, and AL territory my friends. I didn't think that would ever happen in my lifetime.

I still think it will be a very close election. This country is really divided right now. Sad but true...

Wait and see as always!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-04 @ 20:31:31 prediction Map
Map version 85 is now up. This could be my final map but then again maybe not. 1 to 2 days believe it or not is still a long way to go in politics believe it or not. You never know until all the votes are counted.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 08:42:45 prediction Map
Actually I've just noticed in this scenario that Obama still can win in this scenario even if he doesn't win OH, if he holds on to PA, NV, CO, NH, IA, and WI. That would be crazy indeed.

Last Edit: 2012-11-05 @ 08:46:08

 By: palandio (I-DEU) 2012-11-05 @ 10:28:21 prediction Map
Very important observation. And it would not be so crazy after all. Just take a look at the 2008 percentages. If Obama had won only in those states where he actually won by at least 8.95%, he would still have won the eletion. That means he could have lost IN, NC, FL, OH and VA, exactly like in the scenario in your second comment.
So maybe(!) it's not all about Ohio.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-05 @ 23:42:13 prediction Map
I'd have to say this is a definite possibility Blue. I can't say I disagree much with it because it is just as likely as my own map. We'll know more tomorrow.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-06 @ 07:52:27 prediction Map
I can't really say either ConservRep. I too don't really have a good feel on this election.

Thank all of you for being good friends of mine and treating me with respect on here, at least 90 percent of the time.

Wait and see as always!

 By: ronlang44 (I-IL) 2012-11-06 @ 16:43:03 prediction Map
I agree with your map. I think Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia are the 4 states that could determine this election.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-06 @ 21:00:21 prediction Map
Obama's doing much better than FL than I expected. If this holds up Romney has virtually no shot.

Here where I live here in the WV-KY-VA coalfields though Obama is losing 2 or 3 to 1 right now. I knew he'd do poorly here but not nearly as bad as he currently is.

Last Edit: 2012-11-06 @ 21:28:43

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-06 @ 21:32:16 prediction Map
As of now it looks like Obama is going to win, even though it's still early, and the Senate will remain in Democratic hands and the House in Republican hands.

4 more years of total and complete gridlock is on the way I'm afraid...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2020 President
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 135 0 24T
P 2018 Governor 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 66 2 122T
P 2016 President 51/56 23/56 74/112 66.1% pie 290 1 473T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 22 13 122T
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 85 2 401T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 36 2T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 63 0 63T
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 167 1 74T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 21 7 117T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 16 0 50T
P 2007 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 4 27 135T
Aggregate Predictions 343/363 224/363 567/726 78.1% pie


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