PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - thornestorm (G-CA) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:11

Prediction Map
thornestorm MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
thornestorm MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem303
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos44
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
102514254
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Obama - 51%
Romney - 47%
Other - 2%

Racial breakdown of the electorate

%of electorate Obama % total % to Obama
White 72 40 28.8
Black 13 97 12.6
Latino 12 75 9
Asian/Other 3 67 2

Obama total % 52.4

Probably a little high somewhere, though hard to tell where, so I'll just give him 51% of the electorate. The racial breakdown of the election seems the most interesting and will decide this election, and the increasing minority % of the electorate will probably cause Republicans to start changing their electoral strategy.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 1 0 369T678
P 2014 Senate 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 1 1 200T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 14/36 42/72 58.3% pie 2 0 211T300
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 0 47T760
P 2010 Senate 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 2 0 63T456
P 2008 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 0 247T1,505
Aggregate Predictions 251/277 169/277 420/554 75.8% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved