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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:25

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
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State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages


Final Map

Barack Obama (D-IL)/Joe Biden (D-DE) 49%
Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Paul Ryan (R-WI) 48%

Senate: 51 Democrat, 49 Republican
House of Representatives: 239 Republican, 196 Democrat
Governorships: 31 Republican, 18 Democrat, 1 Independent

Well after a rough and tumble campaign, all the money spent, all the ads, all the debates, and all the uncertainty we end up back in the same damn place we started. Democrats control the White House and Senate while Republicans control the House and state governments. More gridlock, more debt, no new solutions, more unemployment, no reforms, and more of the "new normal." How disappointing America.

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Member Comments
 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 08:36:30 prediction Map
I agree with you ConservRep that there will be more gridlock unfortunately.

Right now I have CO and NH going for Obama, however NH might very well be affected by Hurricane Sandy. Actually I don't think NH was hit as bad as most Northeastern states were.

I don't think MI and PA are tossups, at least for now. I think Obama is starting to pull away in those states.

I do think that Romney's turnout will be higher than Obama's, at least I think so. Romney's supporters seem to be more energized than Obama's, at least right now.

I still think Obama could win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote. Now I think even Romney can do that too but not nearly as likely as Obama.

Check out my map version number 85 as soon as you have time to do so.

Wait and see as always...

Last Edit: 2012-11-05 @ 08:39:54

 By: dgentile (G-NJ) 2012-11-05 @ 16:18:36 prediction Map
I'm surprised only by your surprise. I just tweaked my prediction from February, which could have been made four years ago. If only politicians were as jaded and realized they can't wait 4 or even 2 years expecting political fortunes to change. Buck up and take comfort that you are responsible enough to be informed and concerned.

Thanks for your commentary which I enjoy.
Regards, DG

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-05 @ 18:34:24 prediction Map
I want to say thank you to CR and many others for good blogging. Although I feel that if this is the result there will be less gridlock as Obama fades as a re-election issue and they get on to governing...well call me hopeful that will be the result. We need it...

Again thank you as this may be my last election I blog on. It has been a great ride.

 By: colin (R-ON) 2012-11-05 @ 20:42:45 prediction Map
Sadly, I think I agree with your assessment CR. How sad...I feel for you...

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-05 @ 23:38:01 prediction Map
Hey Blue. I'm not saying my prediction is locked in stone. I think Romney stands a fair chance of winning but I'm not comfortable calling it that way at this time. I think things are tight all the way around and to be honest I don't have a good feel for the race. This is just my best guess based on the available data. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I think everywhere from Virginia to Ohio to Pennsylvania to Colorado will be close. I'll head over to your map when I'm done here.

DG it was good to blog with you once again in another election cycle. Hope things were okay for you in New York with Sandy and all. I too am growing quiet tired of our political class. They could stand a good wake up call but I'm not sure they'll ever get one.

dnul it is always a great pleasure to talk shop with you my friend. I don't think gridlock will get any better simply because the parties are so far apart on ideas and issues but we'll see. At least the GOP keeps the House and states. I truly hope this is not your last election that you join us but I understand if it is. I might not be back next time either. Likely I will be in a reduced presence. Politics has burned me out and I'm feeling more jaded than I use to. We'll see. I look forward to our post-election discussion.

Hey colin, as I said to Blue above this is not a for sure assessment. It's just what I get based on current data (that may not tell the whole story that election day) at the moment because I don't have a good feel for sure a close race. Romney could still pull off a win. If he doesn't though I think it will look much like this. I really am hoping that your map is the accurate one. It could happen. We'll know tomorrow. If mine proves right then yes it is very sad. Again, how disappointing America.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-11-07 @ 02:56:09 prediction Map
A great victory for the country.

Glad to have an increased senate majority and Claire McCaskill back for another 6 years. I personally look forward to more supreme court appointments and the presidents second term agenda.

Sorry for your personal disappointment CR I know how it feels to lose as I lost to Bush twice.

Last Edit: 2012-11-07 @ 02:57:46

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-07 @ 07:06:46 prediction Map
Well that was utterly predictable and disappointing.

Great victory? You'll excuse me if I don't share in the sentiment. However, the election has proven to me some very important things. To be honest I kind of already knew them and was hoping I was wrong about them. First and foremost is that my side, at least for now, is clearly in the minority in its thinking on fiscal policy, defense, size of government, etc. We should still continue to present an alternative but we are going to have to get use to living in the minority.

Second is that this is a left of center country or at least Obama has put together a brand new FDR-like Democrat coalition. The new majority I think they call it. There are three possibilities on how that plays out:

1. It's like being a Republican in 1937. FDR and the Democrats are in charge and remain so for a long time but eventually we get our Ike and come back.

2. This is just part of the incumbency cycle. Bush and the GOP won in 2000 and 2004, Obama and the Democrats won in 2008 and 2012. GOP gets another chance in 2016.

3. It's the start of a long term trend where Democrats and their new majority coalition dominate America while Republicans have little victories in the states, House, etc.

I'm not sure which will play out. In truth it doesn't matter. We're the minority either way. By the time Obama leaves there will be too many liberal agenda items put in place to fix. Oh sure we can do reform but the course is set. If we are to become like the rest of the Western world now my hope is that we end up like Germany. But we'll see. This is a tough country with some pretty remarkable people in it. The American engine will hum on.

It won't be an easy hum though. I see some tough times ahead. Personally though, I don't care any more. There really is no point. My views and voice don't matter. I'll survive either way so America can do whatever it wants. If she crashes and burns, oh well. For now there really are no changes. Obama and the Democrats maintain the presidency and Senate while the GOP controls the House and states. Though I am sure the House will compromise a lot more with the president now than before.

That's someone else's problem now. I'm calling it quits and getting out of politics all together. I doubt I'll be back. I've already trashed a majority of my political stuff. Time to focus just enjoying my life and the people in it. I'd like to thank everyone I've meet, gotten to know, and had great discussions with on this site. You guys are alright. And thanks for being so kind to this young fool. Really good to blog with you guys, I had a lot of fun for the most part.

I'll pray that each of you finds prosperity and happiness. Warm wishes and take care guys.


a.k.a ConservRep

Last Edit: 2012-11-07 @ 23:37:57

 By: Immortal Monk (D-CA) 2012-11-08 @ 15:50:13 prediction Map
ConservRep, don't be a doom and gloomer. President Obama swung into power in 2008 because the economy became a train wreck. Bad fiscal policies and poor planning by the Bush administration destroyed an otherwise bustling economic engine.

In the future, when Democrats experience a similar disaster you can expect your party to profit from it in the elections.

Yes, under President Obama the economy performed less than impressively, but it has been improving at a maddening rate. Unemployment has been trending downward - not as fast as we would like - but its been showing improvement.

In the end Americans simply feared that Governor Romney's proposed policies were a return to the Bush years; he lost.

Republicans still have a stake in America's future. Don't kid yourself.

Every party, once in power, has a tendency of overplaying its hand--and then reaping the consequences at some point in the future.

That's the way politics works. That's the way it will always work!

Republicans aren't going anywhere.

Last Edit: 2012-11-08 @ 16:06:40

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-08 @ 17:43:01 prediction Map
Well I certainly appreciate both your kindness and optimistic spirit IM. I understand the point you are trying to make and there is a great deal of truth in it as well. I don't like to be pessimist either but there are some realities that I've come to grips with even though I hoped they were wrong.

1. A new majority of Americans exists now, built partly from changing ideology on government and partly on demographics. The new majority disagrees, at least partially, with the ideas of fiscal conservatism and smaller government.

2. The center-right coalition is broken. The factions seem unable to unite unlike their new majority counter parts. Moderates and purist conservatives can't seem to come together on anything. We'd still be out-numbered as this is a center-left country but we'd be a stronger minority.

3. Politics are cyclic but they can also be long term too. Democrats are poised to be the dominate party for the next few decades. Depends on the stability of the new majority and if the cultural shift is long lasting.

4. As long as the status quo exists Republicans will only be the American people's alternative. A safety blanket to teach the Democrats a lesson if they mess up even too badly for the new majority. However, they will only be allowed to be reforms to the structure the Democrats put in place. No real changes allowed or they're out.

That's just the reality of the world we live in. I've come to accept it. I hope the GOP will come up with new ideas and tailor their message of fiscal conservatism and limited government to the electorate of the twenty-first century. It can be done and it will make them a more effective alternative minority.

Every democracy has to make a choice as to what it is going to be and what course it's going to take. America has made its. Now I have to just move on.

Last Edit: 2012-11-08 @ 17:46:59

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-08 @ 20:12:26 prediction Map
Great to have known you ConservRep and most other posters here too as well. Hopefully we can keep in touch..

I personally think this a resounding rejection of the Tea Party more than anything else, including voters' skepticism of Obama. People don't seem to care too much for Obama but they absolutely hate the Tea Party, except for WV and KY and other Deep South states and perhaps but less likely the AK-ID-UT-WY conglomerate, and took out all their frustrations on Romney and the Republicans this time.

For the Republicans come back and be competitive once again they need to return back to their roots: the moderate Eisenhower type of Republican, like Jon Huntsman. I just don't see that happening though, not at least in the near future sad to say.

I heard on CNN that someone in the Republican Party needs to step it up and call out the Republican base, especially the Tea Partiers. I agree percent with that comment. It happened in 1980 with Ronald Reagan, even though with Reagan it was mostly his personality more than anything else including his conservative policies. But unlike most other Republican presidential candidates recently Reagan actually connected with working class Americans, The modern-day Republicans need that to happen once again. Sadly I just don't see that happening, at least for now. Of course I could be 100 percent wrong as usual.

It worked in the Reagan years but I think that Bush Jr. especially really hurt the Republicans' cause, and his poor performance as president made many Americans including the all important independents skeptical of the extreme right-winger white evangelicals especially in the blue (red on this map) and purple states, except for the Deep South and Appalachia, where there has been an actual pro-Republican trend recently.

I don't think it matters if it's an Eisenhower moderate or a Ronald Reagan conservative. The Republicans just need to connect with the working class like those two did. That is just not happening at all with today's Republican Party sad to say.

I've been studying Richard Nixon lately and I actually have been pleasantly surprised at some of his policies believe it or not. I think the right-wingers at the time actually thought that Nixon was actually way too moderate and liberal for them believe it or not.

One other thing that really bothers me deeply is the fact that many red states and blue states actually trended redder and bluer respectfully. Only two states flipped IN and NC, and they were the two states that Obama won by the least margin in all states back in 2008. I am surprised that Obama didn't lose even more states. Only two states flipped this time. However only three states flipped when Bush won re-election as as well in 2004. That alone tells you that most states, even today 12 years later since 2000 here in 2012, are still either solidly red or solidly blue. There are very few purple states right now.

I was very surprised that Obama held on to FL. I thought he would lose there, and in VA as well. I thought they were too red (blue on this map) for Obama to carry but apparently not.

As it's always been said "United we stand and divided we fall." Sadly that doesn't bode very well for this country either. We're divided almost 50/50 right now.

Republicans also have to try to least court more minority voters to their side as well, or at least address their needs. It probably won't work with African-Americans but other minorities are still winnable for the Republicans: a good number of Hispanics, Asians, Jews, and even Native Americans and Middle Easterners are actually winnable for the Republicans if they can just address their concerns and could vote Republican if given a reason to do so. This country isn't lily-white anymore and soon whites will actually be less than 50 percent of the total American population.

I got two states wrong VA and FL. VA seemed to look good for Romney in the last few polls there, but the black voters and the Northern Virginia voters managed to keep enough voters on Obama's side and overcome the heavy Republican trend from Lynchburg westward.

The same is true for FL as well. Southern FL the heavily Democratic Miami-Fort Lauderdale voter turnout was heavier than the rest of the state.

It looks like the minority and Democratic base turnout was much heavier than I expected it to be as well. We all said it was going to be turnout that decided this election. The Democratic base the blacks and other minorities seemed to have had much higher turnout than the Republican base in the blue states, and especially those crucial purple states. That actually surprised me some I thought the anti-Obama voters would turnout more. Apparently it wasn't enough in the blue (red on this map)and most importantly all them critical purple states to overcome the increased Democratic base turnout.

WV and KY went very red (blue on this map) this time around, mostly because of coal politics. Southwestern VA did too but apparently not enough to overcome the rest of VA especially the Democratic strongholds.

I do agree ConservRep about the possible gridlock. I hope and pray that doesn't happen but I feel it still will unfortunately.

Like I said before I think the Tea Party was the main loser in this election. It will be interesting to see what remains of the Tea Party after this crushing defeat.

Like I always say "Wait and see as always." I hope and pray that that we will get at least get something good done in the next four years.

Last Edit: 2012-11-10 @ 21:14:52

 By: me (I-GA) 2012-11-08 @ 20:40:27 prediction Map
you know, i visited a conservative forum today. they really were in civil war. some were saying romney was too moderate, some were saying they needed to all but kick social conservatives out of the party. the most common sentiment was not to trust the tea party very much anymore and to stop emphasizing social issues at all. the very poor results may be the wake-up needed to stop the veer to the right, and i think a new socially centrist, reformist, freedom-oriented, populist GOP will arise from the ashes. until then, the party is split into three factions. the competent conservatives, fiscally right, free enterprise advocates who are solution oriented maintain a strenuous hold on the leadership of the party. the moderates, that dying breed, who are centist and responsive to growing social and cultural changes, may have the chance to reassert themselves now that the tea party has disastrously failed again. the traditionalists, who are socially conservative and strictly constitutionalist, are going have attempts for them to get drowned out by the rest of the party in the coming years. but know this. with our current system, the GOP will NOT collapse. tere are constant scares of this happening throughout political history, but it never happens, and it wont now.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-09 @ 22:30:57 prediction Map
I know really know about any of this. Yes there is strife and civil discourse in the Republican Party right now. Many ideas about how to get us back on track and to make our message more appealing to all Americans in the modern day we live abound. They will for a long time until someone comes up with either a new winning formula or coalition. Plus who knows what new leaders are about to come to the forefront. Certainly the party won't collapse. It is a fixture, one way or another, in America's two-party system.

But none of that is the real main point here. The main point is that the new majority is center-left and closed off largely to the core message of the Republican Party. Those are numerical facts. The GOP will remain, for a long time I think, the alternative minority party. Allowed to take over only when Democrats drastically mess up. Even then our ability to institute meaningful reform will be limited at best. They will have some power outside of that but only some.

And that's how its going to be for a long time. Welcome to the new America.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-10 @ 18:40:34 prediction Map
I probably disagree with you ConservRep on this but I still think there is a definite need for a competitive 3rd party. Just about every other nation has one especially the western world. Unfortunately most current 3rd parties in the U.S. today are just too extreme either to the left or right now. There is this "they can't win" philosophy too concerning 3rd parties as well. We need a "middle-of-the-road" 3rd party, not an extremist one. Both the core of the Democratic Party and Republican Party right now are really too extreme themselves.

As for a "center-left center-right thing" I still think America is a center-right country. I just think the current Republicans are too extreme to the right now, and probably the Democrats are too extreme to the left as well. Unfortunately the extremists run both parties, which is sad because most of the American people are actually very "middle of the road" when it comes to politics, but are the minority in both the Democratic and Republican parties, which is sad.

To me it was wasn't really a vote for Obama or against Romney it was a vote against the Tea Party instead, especially outside the Deep South and Appalachia. The Republican Party is really a regional party right now. The Tea Party has cost the Republicans many seats in the both the Senate and the House in both the 2010 and 2012 elections.

I'm hoping and praying the moderates will take back control over the Republican Party again probably just like you ConservRep. As long as the Tea Party is in control of the Republican Party it is just not going to happen.

Last Edit: 2012-11-10 @ 21:10:05

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-11 @ 10:27:49 prediction Map
Well if I was going to be a regional party the south being the largest section of the country is the place to be...however, we overestimate the results of this election where nearly 6-8 million fewer people voted. I think that says more aobut the choices than the results....

Immigration reform and you have a different ball game in my mind, smaller government will come whatever party is in power. I am just happy that so much big money proves that the people can have a say...

Like I said it was a DFL year in MN, the two admendments lost (marriage and voter ID) and these social issues pushed the suburbs into the hands of the DFL. They now have both houses of the they govern in next 2 years will determine what will come....the voters want solutions, good government but less, good services for less and good education but do not raise taxes....

I think the economy will improve naturally as we have a quite flexible economy. Pleas oh please invest in the infrastructure and education, let a lot of other things go.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-11 @ 12:37:15 prediction Map
The more I analyze the election the more I see things clearly. It's actually kind of funny because I've noticed these patterns before and had hope a number of them didn't indicate the overall bigger trend I feared they might. But election night 2012 finally crystallized it for me. It's really pretty simple so let me explain.

Look at the last 80 years. Democrats and the left have advanced continuously, sometimes faster than others, but always forward (see the irony here). FDR laid the foundation down in the 1930's with the New Deal. LBJ advanced everything to the next level in the 1960's with the Great Society. Obama is in the middle of a third great push. And the Republicans? Only kept around as reformers that are allowed in to make improvements to what the Democrats put in place and check them as the people's alternative in the two-party system. Eisenhower and Reagan/GOP Congress are good examples of this from the 1950's and 1980's-1990's. Oh sure there are small victories on this or that but nothing substantial that advances over time.

"As for a "center-left center-right thing" I still think America is a center-right country." - Blue

".how they govern in next 2 years will determine what will come....the voters want solutions, good government but less, good services for less and good education but do not raise taxes...." - dnul

Both not really true. First the voters can lie to themselves about what they want all they want. This is not a center-right country. Probably not totally center-left either but it is for sure center-center left. Otherwise the advance of the last 80 years would not have held. Time we admit this. Second voters don't want less government. They say that in opinion surveys but try it and a majority of them recoil. It may not be bigger but a more active government is exactly what they want. At least in the new majority it is. Smaller government will not come under either party in that respect.

Republicans therefore face many problems:

1. They are a regional power in that they are currently confined to the South, Plains, and Mountain West. Not a bad base for power but it does not give them a majority, merely a strong minority.

2. When Democrats win the electoral college its always over 300 electoral votes. The GOP can barely crack 270 when they win. We saw the states they can do well in in this past election. I'm sure they can pick up a couple of the other swings states they lost but that won't be enough. This will large depend on the integrity of the new majority but it's not a good thing at all.

3. I don't know how they are going to address voters. Immigration reform will happen during Obama's second term so that's done. Many DC Republicans will sign onto it. But its way more than immigration. The party needs to repackage its fiscal ideas and government reforms for the 21st century. Focus on some big themes. They also need to embrace federalism and leave social issues to the state level as part of states' rights though I'd keep the pro-life plank with modifications.

4. This is more important. The party can hardly move in one direction or another. If they try to modify their message then purist conservatives and libertarians will get pissed and not turn out as some did not in this election. Try to appease them and the new majority sucks up most of the middle and we lose nationally. The coalition is broken.

So America will continue on. The economy will natural get better. How much is yet to be seen. We'll still have elections and there will still be cycles. But Democrats are in charge and will be in charge for a long time. Their 80 year advance will continue. The best Republicans can hope for is to be reforms and make the government as easy to live with as possible. Fix what they can to improve the structure. At least until something changes. There are no third parties coming so this is what we have.

Those of us in the minority just need to learn to live with this, take the opportunities that are given to us, and enjoy our lives. That's what I'm going to do.

Last Edit: 2012-11-11 @ 12:47:49

 By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-11 @ 12:50:37 prediction Map
Conservative. You have many good points. The Republicans have been winning the economic fight (and thus, we all have been losing). Liberals have been winning, and, in some cases, have won the social issues. There is still much to go, but kiss social conservatism good bye (thank god)

Now the Conservative's unethical, fiscal policies are going to lose as well.

And you have a point. The only thing Conservatives are good for is reforming some Liberal ideas. Which even as a liberal, I feel is important. Only because checks and balances are important. But it is better done when we have two sane parties. And thank god the Republicans are starting to vote out many of their insane members. We will never get rid of all of them because of the south, but this is a nice start.

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-11 @ 15:33:00 prediction Map
I think conservatives are good for a little more than reform liberal policies and structures. They can offer some important alternatives. The people will keep them around because not only are they simply a part of America (even if a minority) but also because they are needed as a check on liberal excess.

I don't know what changes are coming but there are changes coming. Like I've said, those of us in the center-right will just have to deal with it. Of course nothing ever stays static so changes were going to come anyway. I don't think Republicans have to mirror Democrats. They have to have some differences or why have separate parties? However, America has changed and the parties have to continue to reflect that as well.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-12 @ 06:29:01 prediction Map
I like that you take a long view of history. But let me tell you that the GOP was written off after watergate and the result was a rebirth under Reagan. The country is a centerist country for sure, but attitudes change and have slowly moved the center a little left, that is true in most of the world.

Yet, like I said a little immigration reform and the message of the GOP would be more palatable. That is a simplistic overstatement, but many want fiscal conservatism, libertarianism and smaller less invasive nanny state and I am a lifelong Democrat, but I was ready to jump ship because of the financial crises, it was the social issues that pushed me back into the DEM fold gladly.

Right now we need to solve problems short term and long term, we need investment in the future (infrastructure and education) but we need to solve the debt/deficit problems or go under.

Had someone like Mitch Daniels been the GOP nominee I would have voted for him.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-12 @ 20:37:08 prediction Map
The Republicans still carried all the 2008 McCain states and added IN and NC back to the Republican fold. They are far from being done as a party with that much support. Of course the 2008 Obama states remained solid too.

Really the same was true for Bush Jr. during his 2004 re-election campaign as well.

If the Republicans can come back and just pick up a few of them "purple states," they could be a force to be reckoned with once again in American politics.

Like I said the Republicans need to try to at least reach out at least some to minorities, especially Hispanics, Asians, Native Americans, Jews, and Middle Easterners. They need to talk to blacks too but unlike the groups I mentioned above I don't think many blacks will ever vote Republican, but 10 percent is still possible I think.

The Republicans definitely need to ditch the Tea Party as well and get rid of the Rush Limbaugh types too.

As for you ConservRep saying it's a "center-left" country and that I was wrong for saying it is now a "center-right" country we both are probably mistaken. It's a "center-center" country right now I think, even though you're probably right that it is at least a small Democratic trend. The country's virtually a 50/50 country right now...

or is it really? Just a week ago I probably felt that way but it really isn't if you check the Electoral maps. That also can be very deceiving, as both the Bush states and the Obama states have remained mostly rock solid one way or the other for the most part, and in many individual states both red and blue ones have actually trended redder and bluer respectfully for the most part, making that division even stronger. It's just them few "purple" states that are actually only 50/50. There are really only a handful of states like that. Most states both red and blue ones are actually fairly solid one way or the other. Very few states are actually true purple states. Yet another bad thing about the Electoral College unfortunately...

Really that too is only true in presidential elections that though. There are actually many more "purple" states on the state and local levels. My home state WV is a perfect example. Yes it's very red (blue on this site) at the presidential level but very blue (red on this map) on the state and local ones, even though Republicans are making some inroads though. I don't think my Senator Jay Rockefeller will win his re-election bid in 2014. My representative Nick Rahall might not survive either in 2014 he won re-election by only a 54-46 margin this time. On the federal level WV is solidly Republican. On the state and local levels though Democrats still have a stranglehold. My Democratic Senator Manchin won handily but my Democratic governor Earl Ray Tomblin just squeaked by this time.

I've noticed here in W. Virginia that most political signs don't have the party listed on them anymore, whereas as little as 10 years ago the Democrats proudly had "Democratic" written on them while the Republicans didn't except in Republican strongholds. Now neither party places their particular affiliation on the road signs anymore. I never thought I'd ever see that here in WV in my entire lifetime.

Nearby KY and TN both solidly red (blue on this map) states on the federal level have very popular Democratic governors as well (I know KY has in Beshear don't know if TN's governor Braesden is still in office or not). And Mitch McConnell might very well go down to defeat too in 2014, at least I hope and pray so lol. I know you probably strongly disagree with me ConservRep on that one lol.

Last Edit: 2012-11-13 @ 05:56:38

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-12 @ 22:21:50 prediction Map
Hey blue and dnul. You guys make some good points but I think things go a little bit deeper than that.

Yes the red state-blue state division remains very strong in the United States. Romney managed to hold all the McCain states by decent margins while adding back Indiana and North Carolina. Most of these states were the core Bush states too. Obama held his states too in the blue fire wall while picking up a majority of the "purple states." The election itself was very close, almost 50-50. This suggests a centrist nation.

But let's dig a little deeper. Consider the following:

1. Nearly 3 million McCain voters stayed home from 2008 but 9 million Obama voters stayed home. Even winning independents didn't give the GOP an edge. Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1992 and that was 2004. The new majority has the numbers.

2. The electoral college is a trap. The Republican states in the red fire wall are mostly small. Even with the additions Romney's total barely broke 200 electoral votes. That doesn't even compare to the embarrassments of 1992, 1996, and 2008 were they dipped into the 100's. And while Democrats have been free to play in GOP states since 1992 like Georgia, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Colorado, Arizona, etc. the Republicans have yet to break back into Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, or half a dozen other states.

3. Even when Republicans do win its just barely. With the exception of the House in 2010, its the Democrats that win big presidential victories and super majorities in the Congress. The GOP just barely scraps by.

I also find it highly amusing that when Democrats lose they are never told that they have to moderate. They never need to adopt more GOP-like policies and ideas to stay relevant. It's only when the GOP loses that the it is said that the losing party needs to more closely resemble the winners. I imagine that is because Democrats and their coalition have successfully changed the narrative. That's why the center has moved progressively left election after election. Hence this is a center-center left country. The Democrats' premise on America is now the view of a majority of the American people. That's why Republicans are in the minority now. They are outnumbered.

I think demographics are a strength for Democrats but I don't think it's the whole thing. Republicans have reached out to minorities. Just look at our convention. Bobby Jindal, Condi Rice, Mia Love, Allen West, Nikki Haley, Kelly Ayotte, Debbi Ficsher, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Susana Martinez, Brain Sandoval, Eric Cantor, just to name a few of different gender or race from white males. No they've lost the battle of the message with Democrats with minorities and women. They haven't won them over to their ideas that they believe promote prosperity for all Americans. It's ideology that's beaten the GOP. Demography is just icing on top.

That's why I feel the Republicans will be a minority for a long time. Just the second party. They can still do well in the House because their base is spread out over the congressional districts and not concentrated in urban areas but that's about it nationally. It's going to be tough for the GOP to make changes. Their coalition is so weak that any attempt to make improves will cause "true conservatives" to stay home, and these voters will be needed on election day given how tight the margin is for Republicans. But cater to those people and you risk losing others to expand the base. Lose-lose.

My only thought at this point is that the party may need to become just a little more libertarian like in its policies. Stick with fiscal conservatism, cut back on defense spending while advocating a modern military, and support states' rights. Defer social issues to the states and down ballot. I don't know if that would work or not. Things are such a mess but hey they have to try something. That's why it'll be a long time before you see a Republican majority. A LONG time.

As to Rockefeller blue I think he's pretty safe. Just look at what Manchin did. Jay's not going anywhere unless he wants to. As to McConnell, I don't care if he goes or not. If he goes I'd rather it be in the primaries rather than the general. He's been a disappointment.

For me though not much matters. Can't even decide if I want to keep voting or not. Probably will but not sure. My only hope is that a more moderate blue dog type Democrat runs for president in 2016.

Last Edit: 2012-11-12 @ 22:41:41

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-13 @ 06:24:44 prediction Map
Actually ConservRep if you look at the West Virginia polls Rockefeller is definitely in danger of losing his seat, especially if the Republican nominee is the very popular 2nd district congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito. She would probably at least make it competitive. Of course as always two years is a long time in politics and anything can and will happen. Rockefeller is a lot more liberal than Manchin too, or at least he used to be.

McConnell would have probably lost in 2014 if Romney had won the election. But since Obama was re-elected Kentucky might just send him back to Congress yet again just to keep a check on Obama.

It's funny about libertarianism. Most Americans including people in many blue (red on this map) states actually say they want less government in most polls but at the same time strongly opposed to privatization whenever that particular word is used. Go figure!

I definitely agree 100 percent on the Democrats reaching out to the "blue dogs" more and Obama has had major problems doing that as well, especially here in Appalachia and some parts of the Deep South as well.

However we also need to be very careful while doing so. The same is probably true with the Republicans and the "tea party."

Bill Clinton was able to reach out to the "blue dog" Democrats especially those here in Appalachia and even a few southern states as well, while keeping the African-American vote, and the liberal Democratic base as well. Very few politicians on either side were ever able to do that. That's why he was so successful as a president even with his personal problems.

The key to winning elections might actually not be whether a candidate is liberal, conservative, or moderate. Polls have showed time and time again that a friendly personality and a sense of humor especially is very crucial yet very underrated.

People want someone they can "have a beer with" and can talk to as a friend and not a politician while "visiting their homes" especially here in Appalachia where I live. Obama just wrote off Appalachia without even giving us a chance to talk to him "personally" and that's probably more important here in Appalachia than in any other part of the country. That's definitely one reason why Obama fares so miserably here in Appalachia where I live most of the time.

It's true throughout the country as well. Americans want candidates the president included to get "personal" with them, and they just didn't feel that way with Romney, and to a lesser extent Obama as well.

I actually don't drink beer or any other alcoholic beverages it's against my personal religious beliefs and can't anyway with all the psychiatric medicines I have to take.

Anyway Obama was perceived to be much more charismatic than Romney was this time and even many Romney supporters will admit that.

Reagan and Clinton while on different sides of the aisle and with different political philosophies were both able to connect with "average" Americans and talk to them "personally in their homes." And they both had great personalities as well. Even Bush Jr. and Obama to a lesser extent were able to do so.

It's going to be a long 4 years I believe. I hope and pray I'm wrong as usual.

Last Edit: 2012-11-13 @ 08:05:43

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-13 @ 14:30:16 prediction Map
Nice narrative which Blue and CR usually have anyway. I have been through this phase a few times in last 60 plus years. I agree with CR that there is an electoral problem. I do believe an immigrationplan dents that a bit, remember Bush took 44% of latino vote.

Second, after 1968-1972 elections the Democrats were told they have to moderate their views, strongly- it does happen the other way if you look at the longer trend. There were Reagan Democrats for a reason.

So I believe both parties have ways to change without sacrifising their core beliefs.

Thanks again CR for hosting one of the nicer web sites on this blog....

 By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-13 @ 23:08:58 prediction Map
Thanks for commenting Blue. It does take a special kind of politician, like Reagan and Clinton, to connect to voters. You are dead on right about that. I don't know what's coming but I'm also willing to bet the next few years are going to be very very long indeed. We'll just have to learn to live with all of it. That's what I'm trying to do. Hope you are well.

dnul thanks for the kind words. If I can take a moment to day its been a real joy to blog with you and blue so much this cycle. Just nice and thoughtful debate. It's refreshing.

I'm glad I could play host to a decent thread this year. It's been one of the high points of the election for me :)

User's Predictions

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P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
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P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
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P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
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P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
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P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
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