PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - dnul222 (D-MN) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:46

Prediction Map
dnul222 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages


Final map for election

Cautionary note: ALthough there seems to be a slight movement toward Obama among independents the following states are almost evenly split and might make for a long night:

Virginia- closes early but third party takes a little over 2% and may cost the state to Romny. Obama +1
Florida - close but slight edge to Romney because of turnout in I4 corridor Romney +2
New Hampshire- tossup and ROmney's visit may help but right now slight tick to Obama +1

Iowa - seems to have settled in an Obama plus stage like the rest of the midwest Obama +2
Ohio-seems a little surer for Obama in my mind- Obama +2
Wisconsin +3 Obama

Nevada- turnout machine helps Obama +4
Colorado- early voting helps Romney +2

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 10:20:38 prediction Map
Senate races
Massachusetts, Maine, Indiana and Nevada + Dem

on the other side
Wisconsin, Montana, ND and nebraska + GOP

a wash in the end 53-47 which will cost McConnell minoirty leader status

House is a three seat gain for Dems, disappointment for them 196-239

loss of 2 governorships Montana and North carolina

In MN the two amendmendments may be defeated one for marriage and the other a poorly written voter ID law.....most compelling ad former wounded vet talking about his gay fellow soldier who lost his life but we should not let him down my saying he could not marry. You cna die for your country but not marry who you want to...

both amendments could go either way....

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-04 @ 11:21:22 prediction Map
Are you saying that Berkley(NV) is more likely to win than Baldwin(WI)?
Republicans win US Senate Races in TX by a 15 point margin, NE by a 10 point margin, ND by a 5 point margin. AZ and MT by 2 to 3 points. NV and WI are a statistical tie but I am predicting Democrats win WI.
Democrats narrowly win VA,MA,and CT, MO,IN,OH,PA,and FL by a 5-10 point margin. NM,MI,HI,NJ,and ME by 10-15 point margin.

Last Edit: 2012-11-04 @ 11:38:19

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 13:41:24 prediction Map
Yes, that is what I am saying based on three facts, Nev early voting is strong for Dems and 2nd the Dem machine in Nevada is strong and very active, third Wisconsin is evenly divided even if the President takes the state by 3-4%...Tammy though I like her is running about even which may not translate into a victory on election day as there is very little early voting in WI....

Anyway those are my thoughts...

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2012-11-05 @ 22:49:29 prediction Map
I'd probably switch CO and VA. This is a very possible scenario though...

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-09 @ 06:23:31 prediction Map
Well looks like we got CO and VA and FLorida. I was very accurate with MN as the DEM wave in MN nmaterialized and both the state senate and state house flipped to DEM. DFLers benefited from support from Indies and some moderate GOP to overturn both amendments to constitution- one which would have narrowly defined marraige and the voter iD bill. It was the wealthy suburbs of the Twin Cites where the biggest turhnaround happened as they threw out every GOP member of the state legislature. MESSAGE- deal with economic problems and stay out of bedrooms!

Even Michele Bachmann in the most GOP district had to work so fard and spend 21 million to overcome a 2 million campaign from her able opponent....

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 16/56 66/112 58.9% pie 8 1 614T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 11/34 43/68 63.2% pie 8 0 317T362
P 2014 Senate 32/36 16/36 48/72 66.7% pie 19 13 240T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 2 162 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T153
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T312
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T264
Aggregate Predictions 427/490 179/490 606/980 61.8% pie

Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2012 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home

Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved