Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	281
Rep	206
Ind	0
Tos	51

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
102	50	42	5	5

Analysis

Obama has this in the bag. Ohio and Iowa are no longer true toss-up states, as Obama has small leads in pretty much every recent poll taken from both those states. Colorado, Virginia, and Florida are the only true toss-ups left in my eyes, but won't have an impact on the outcome with Ohio going to Obama.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	1	1	17	T	678
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	3	1	47	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	2/52	1/52	3/104	2.9%	1	-	222	T	231
2008 President	52/56	46/56	98/112	87.5%	7	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	46/52	26/52	72/104	69.2%	9	-	7	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	25/49	64/98	65.3%	7	-	3	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	245/321	183/321	428/642	66.7%