PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - applemanmat (L-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:31

Prediction Map
applemanmat MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
applemanmat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem265
 
Rep273
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem216
 
Rep235
 
Ind0
 
Tos87
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-8-1-94212265-94
Rep+8+1+94000222179+94
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
86453254
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This is a tough election for me. Nationwide, it is tied. Obama is leading in the state-by-state polls. However, the polls oversampled Democrats. I don't know how much though. 2008 was a historical election with record turnout. Many will not vote again this time around. Voter enthusiasm is down significantly with Democrats and up significantly with Republicans.

So it is really hard to say. The deciding states will be Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All of them will be very very close.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 30/35 23/35 53/70 75.7% pie 1 4 224T305
P 2022 Governor 28/36 21/36 49/72 68.1% pie 1 4 241T272
P 2020 President 51/56 45/56 96/112 85.7% pie 12 7 130T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 8 7 44T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 3 13 1T293
P 2018 Senate 30/35 20/35 50/70 71.4% pie 1 3 246T483
P 2018 Governor 31/36 25/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 5 94T372
P 2016 President 52/56 32/56 84/112 75.0% pie 2 2 87T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 2 2 213T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 1 2 25T279
P 2014 Senate 34/36 17/36 51/72 70.8% pie 10 5 200T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 15/36 47/72 65.3% pie 7 11 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 17 17T153
P 2012 President 50/56 36/56 86/112 76.8% pie 31 2 591T760
P 2012 Senate 28/33 16/33 44/66 66.7% pie 21 2 211T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 1 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 14/52 49/104 47.1% pie 5 - 75T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 3 177 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 28 2 100T456
P 2010 Governor 36/37 28/37 64/74 86.5% pie 15 2 5T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 14 1T103
P 2008 President 51/56 40/56 91/112 81.3% pie 29 4 200T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 12/33 44/66 66.7% pie 11 4 281T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 6 4 86T264
Aggregate Predictions 664/752 444/752 1108/1504 73.7% pie



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