Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-31 Version:2

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	271
Rep	267
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	241
Rep	267
Ind	0
Tos	30

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-7	-1	-88	22	2	271	-88
Rep	+7	+1	+88	0	0	0	22	2	179	+88
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
88	46	34	5	3

Analysis

I think PA will be quite the shocker come Tuesday, especially after Sandy. I've trusted PPP for quite some time, but I think they're beginning to lose it. I would not be surprised to see this map happening (the current map w/PA to Romney) But I would equally expect this one (the prediction). This is honestly what I'm expecting come Tuesday, but I maintain the one above is very much possible. In either case, Romney wins the PV 51.3%-47.4%, +/- .5%. PA will be closer than OH.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	54/56	35/56	89/112	79.5%	2	6	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	17/35	50/70	71.4%	1	4	274	T	423
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	1	4	104	T	192
2016 President	25/56	12/56	37/112	33.0%	2	330	671	T	678
2014 Senate	26/36	11/36	37/72	51.4%	1	363	359	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	13/36	40/72	55.6%	1	363	241	T	300
2012 President	51/56	37/56	88/112	78.6%	2	6	534	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	10/33	39/66	59.1%	1	1	268	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	3/11	12/22	54.5%	1	1	196	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	39/52	13/52	52/104	50.0%	3	-	68		231
Aggregate Predictions	295/374	152/374	447/748	59.8%