Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-27 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	290
Rep	248
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	237
Rep	234
Ind	0
Tos	67

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-69	25	2	290	-69
Rep	+4	+1	+69	0	0	0	22	2	179	+69
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
95	49	38	5	3

Analysis

Final prediction map.

Obama narrowly wins the popular vote, or even loses it, but wins on the state by state basis.

Closest states: Virginia and Colorado.

Romney only caught up, and made this race tight, when he ran to the middle.

This should dispel the myth (but it won't) that Republicans would do better if they turn to the far crazy right. Again, this is further proof that Republicans are their own worst enemies.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: SirJOW (R-FL) 2012-11-04 @ 00:14:30
haha, Obama wins by significantly more than he did in 2008! Now that's funny! There is no way my friend. If Hussein had focused his energies on the economy it would have been a possibility, but instead, he focused on FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING America. You don't fundamentally change that which you love.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-04 @ 05:32:00
I do not know where you got better than 2008 from this map which shows a substantially tied race....and close in CO and VA... If the President who you deride had spent the first two years on other than health care like economic job recovery it woul dhave made all the difference-which is where I agree with you... Of course I said it all along that health care was the right priority at the wrong time.. As of today Obama would eek out a win in both popular and electoral votes but that may diminesh in last hours or not...

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-10 @ 19:56:13
Looks like I underestimated Obama again. And looks like the blow hard tools of the right, yet again, made a jerk of themselves. SirJOW.... WhiteRyan... Many others on here NEVER LEARN THEIR LESSON. What lese do expect from a bunch of people who don't believe in science and evolution? And, yet again... NATE SILVER WAS RIGHT

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-11 @ 10:31:15
I am really impressed with how Silver was accurate. I enjoyed reading his analysis of other pollsters. However, let us remind ourselves that things can change as can parties. I predict a GOP victory in 2016! I believe the GOP has many talented people on the bench-they have so many governors for example. Demographics may favor the DEMS temporarily because I believe they will be confronted by a revitalized GOP in 2016...it starts with avoiding the fiscal cliff....

By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-11 @ 11:33:36
Don't be too sure about 2016. History would suggest the people will tire of one party by then and vote in the other but the GOP has a real electoral college problem despite their deep bench of governors. I don't think Vice President Biden would be a good candidate but there are plenty of other Democrats to take up the mantle. I'm not really optimistic about 2014 or 2016 myself.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-11 @ 12:32:18
Of course no one can be sure about 2016. That is silly. That is 4 years from now. But we do know, which is what I have been preaching. I wrote numerous times that Romney simply couldn't win this election because he has alienated too many groups of people. Now, in fairness, Romney could have won the election, sure. But my point was that I didn't think it was likely. And, since we now even have more evidence that we can trust Nate Silver, Romney never was winning the election. Ever. Not even during his moments of momentum after the first debate. Even then, he was losing. And why was he losing? Because of my point... that he has alienated too many voters. So what we do know? There will be even less Republican fanboys in 2016 than there are now, and they couldn't pull it off now.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-11 @ 12:35:40
And that goes back to my theory. Conservatism, by it's very nature, is destined to lose. It is doomed from the stat. Conservatives want to hold back progress, and you simply can't do that. The Republican party can stay relavent, but by doing so, they are going to have to become less conservative. So either they grow up, and get with the times, or become extinct. And that is what we are seeing now. And the new generation of Republicans, though still fiscally conservative, is less likely to tolerate this tea party, homophobic, racist, hatred. They are going to be down with legalizing pot, and down with gay marriage. Just face it. The Republican party as we know it is over and this country is going to be going through a period of Progressivism.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-11-11 @ 12:38:43
And more than likely the economy is going to be doing great by 2016. That will give an edge to the Democrats. Bush won after Reagan. Obama is going to be at least as successful of a president as Reagan, and quite possibly, he might go down in history as one of our finest presidents. I think Hillary is our most likely next president. But, of course, yet again, 4 years is a long time.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-11 @ 13:04:36
I agree somewhat with some of the things you've said Five. You can check out my page for a complete break down of my thoughts if you wish but here are some of my big points: 1. The left has really been winning for the past 80 years starting with FDR. The people can tell opinion pollsters that they want less government and that this is a center-right country but I think we know that is a lie. This is a center-center left country at best. It's always been moving that way. Republicans only come in as alternatives to make some improvements or key reforms to the structure the Democrats have put in place. They win a victory here or there but nothing substantial. 2. The GOP has to make some changes. A number of their ideas such as strong defense, fiscal conservatism, etc. are fine. They need to be repackaged and have some newer ideas for today but the core is still fine. They also need to come up with some new reforms to make government better and it's high time they relegated social issues to the state level. In a way become more libertarian like. They have to make connections with the some of the new majority. 3. This is the biggest problem. The conservative coalition is fracture. Make any changes and a key group or two falls off and the GOP loses nationally or in key states. This is especially true in the electoral college. This problem could resolve itself in time but for now its a major problem. Right now they are the minority party. Kept around by the people because they serve an important part in our two-party system. They are the alternative meant to check and make improvements on the country's dominate party and coalition - the Democrats. It's going to be a long road back for them and I expect they'll be in and out of power here and there for a while. The House is the best place for them given that their base is more spread out over congressional districts as compared to Democrats. The economy will naturally improve with or without what Washington does. That's just the nature of our system. It will adjust. How much better is yet to be seen. I don't know how Obama will be remembered but for 2016 I don't think Hillary will run. Andrew Cuomo or Mark Warner are other stories. Four years is a long time. I don't really expect much and I'm just trying to learn to live in the minority. I could live with a reformed GOP but I'm young and I don't know if others are as willing to make the hard choices as I am. We'll see I guess. Last Edit: 2012-11-11 @ 13:07:23

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-12 @ 17:42:24
You have a whole group of people like me who are ready to jump ship if it is a fiscal conservative and libertarian with immigration reform.... However, I understand more than most about the electoral college and even with some weaker states desserting the DEMs still start with around 240...that is tough to break I know, but it can be done as Bush showed....second time in 2004... Remember Bush got 44 % of Latino vote....imagine if that happened in 2016? Anyway the GOP has a lock on the House for the rest of the decade given gerrymandering. And the governor mansions will be the real battle in 2014.... we shall see, or at least I hope I see, at my age nothing is taken for granted... I am only 6 right and seven wrong in my choices since i started voting for President.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	13	10	314	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%

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