Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-25 Version:9

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	285
Rep	166
Ind	0
Tos	87

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
92	51	34	5	2

Analysis

Just easing back on my prediction a bit. Romney's surge is ended and it's winding down to a stable race. FL is still on the bubble but everything else is as it was in '08 except IN and NC which have flipped back to the GOP. Pretty much the same result as the 2004 re-election of W - a 51-48 MoV for the incumbent barely hanging on despite a lot of criticism but benefitting from a lackluster challenger and a funding advantage. Dems will also retain control of the Senate with 54 and Repubs will keep the Gavel but only after giving up about 10 seats. Same conditions as now will persist for another 2 yrs, basically.
-Jeff

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: cptarmy03 (R-MA) 2012-10-26 @ 16:52:37
dude. what are you smoking....you need to get real with your analysis. this is nothing like 08.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-27 @ 10:20:26
If this map comes true, the Repubs CAN'T hold the House. You need to make up your mind: Either Obama wins 330+ EV or the Repubs hold the House. Both cannot happen.

By: FiveSenses82 (D-MO) 2012-10-27 @ 18:56:21
Um... This map, though a little too far in Obama favor, is actually realistic. And actually possible. cptarmy, your map is the map of someone who is smoking crack. You are completely out of touch with reality if you think your map is accurate.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	2	54	280	T	305
2020 President	51/56	39/56	90/112	80.4%	4	41	392	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	18/35	48/70	68.6%	2	27	337	T	423
2016 President	46/56	22/56	68/112	60.7%	9	29	590	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	7/34	33/68	48.5%	4	104	359		362
2014 Senate	28/36	14/36	42/72	58.3%	7	9	308	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	10/36	36/72	50.0%	4	24	276	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	167	17	T	153
2012 President	56/56	36/56	92/112	82.1%	9	12	435	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	4	22	128	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	9/52	44/104	42.3%	11	-	98	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	360/431	193/431	553/862	64.2%

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