Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:41

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	332
Rep	206
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	253
Rep	181
Ind	0
Tos	104

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-1	-27	27	2	332	-27
Rep	+2	+1	+27	0	0	0	22	2	179	+27
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
98	51	38	5	4

Analysis

Okay. This is authentically my final 2012 Prediction map!

I've modified the victory outcome (Pct) of various states for both candidates.

Presidential Election Results:

Obama/Biden . . . 49% +/-2%
Romney/Ryan . . . 49% +/-2%
Other . . . . . . >1%

U.S. Senate Results:

Democrats retain control (with Independents included, enjoy a 2 to 4 seat majority!).

U.S. House of Reps Results:

Republicans keep control - slightly (Democrats gain between 14 to 21 seats, shy of the 22 needed to regain control; obstructionist Republicans see the writing on the wall and decide it's better to work with the President)!

U.S. Governors:

Republicans control a majority of Governors' mansions throughout the country.

The first state to switch party color from the previous Presidential election (2008):

Indiana!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: Immortal Monk (D-CA) 2012-11-06 @ 01:18:36
Okay. I'm serious now. THIS is my final 2012 map!

By: Immortal Monk (D-CA) 2012-11-07 @ 23:32:19
Wow. My prediction was spot on (except for some of the analysis)! Last Edit: 2012-11-07 @ 23:38:26

By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-07 @ 23:42:16
Nicely done IM. My hats off to you.

By: Immortal Monk (D-CA) 2012-11-08 @ 15:37:51
Hey, thanks ConservRep. Your analysis throughout the season was very informative. I can see you creating a well-visited political blog in the future! I'll try to keep in touch with the rest of the gang here in the coming years!

By: CR (--MO) 2012-11-08 @ 16:37:59
Thanks for that IM! I'll try to keep up with everyone here too. I always enjoy our discussions.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	41	0	182	T	760
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	18/52	53/104	51.0%	13	-	64	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	91/108	60/108	151/216	69.9%

Links

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