Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-03 Version:3

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	290
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	57

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
94	50	36	5	3

Analysis

Just read through First Read and the MSNBC Marist Polls. Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio are clearly moving towards the President. I still have North Carolina in Romney's column. I think if the elction were today Obama would win Virginia by about 2 points, I think Romney would squeak out a win in Florida by 1 point. Obama wouled win Nevada and Colorado by 2-4 points. I think Obama leads nationally by 3-4 points. If you go to the electoral college Swingometer and enter in the scenario of a 3 point Obama win you get a map that looks exactly like mine.
Obama 303
Romney 235

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	39/56	94/112	83.9%	3	34	367	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	55/56	39/56	94/112	83.9%

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