Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-22 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	220
Rep	318
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	195
Rep	266
Ind	0
Tos	77

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-11	-2	-139	18	1	220	-139
Rep	+11	+2	+139	0	0	0	22	2	179	+139
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
70	42	21	4	3

Analysis

It's hard to rely on the polls when so many are so poorly done, but to the extent they can be used, if you make proper adjustments for the biases in the details and allow for the likelihood that more of the people who are undecided will ultimately vote for Romney, then this is the most likely result. I am projecting a popular vote for Romney of 52-47. If anything, I think he is likely to do better. If so, he will carry most of the tossup states.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	26/35	10/35	36/70	51.4%	1	355	464	T	483
2017 Governor	0/2	0/2	0/4	0.0%	1	116	146	T	149
2016 President	52/56	34/56	86/112	76.8%	1	59	48	T	678
2014 Senate	33/36	15/36	48/72	66.7%	1	594	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	10/36	41/72	56.9%	1	594	224	T	300
2012 President	46/56	24/56	70/112	62.5%	1	107	730	T	760
2012 Senate	23/33	7/33	30/66	45.5%	1	107	329	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	3/11	11/22	50.0%	1	107	211	T	228
Aggregate Predictions	219/265	103/265	322/530	60.8%

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