PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:157

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Prediction States Won
270 |
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Confidence States Won
270 |
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State Pick-ups

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Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

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Member Comments
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-11-06 @ 02:47:08 prediction Map
Calling the race tentatively for OBAMA...BUT (before you go pouring the booze either to celebrate or drown your sorrows) this race is close enough and enough states are in play that a Romney win is not out of the realm of distinct possibility. Never have I witnessed or predicted a presidential election where I was this uncertain about the outcome. In 2004, I was confident of a Bush win. In 2008 Obama was the obvious call. Today with fewer tha 24 hours till the polls close, it's all up in air, and it's all coming to down most especially the key battleground state of Ohio, just as it in 2004. Though th comparisons don't just stop there. Since I always call every state, today at the buzzer, Ohio is going for Obama by a razor thin margin of one point or less. Turnout is critical for Obama if he doesn't get 2008 levels among his base his risks falling a few thousand votes short in OH and losing the election.

I have never before seen a race where there was such a disconect between the national polling numbers and the state level polling. It is not likely that Democrats have that level of a structural advantage in the Electoral College that he could be effectively tied with Romney but be sweeping all the swing states. More likely is that either Obama is going to decisively beat Romney or Romney is going to closely defeat Obama. However there is a small probability that that the EV winner could be the popular vote loser.

Romney's internal polling released just today suggests he will sweep Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The margins will be very close in all states (1-3% point each).

If Obama carries Ohio, but Romney wins NC, VA, and FL, then a showdown ensues for the smaller swingstates for NH, NV, CO, IA, WI, and now the two states Romney is trying to put in play with his high risk high reward strategy in PA and MI. Michigan and Pennsylvania where are various time leaning or strong Obama, but now Romney has made up a lot of ground in both. Fundamentals in both states should give Romney a boost and on paper should've been states that Romney could be competitive in. Reminds me of 2004 when suddenly at the end Bush closed to gap with Kerry in PA and was nearly tied at the end (Kerry 51% - Bush 48%). I excpect Obama may only win PA and MI by similar margins to Kerry. If Romney upset Obama in either game over for Obama.

More likely for Romney is a pickup in Colorado which has been trending his way (though Obama has made up some ground in the wake of Sandy). Colorado continues to be a must win for Romney but it continues to be one where GOP's growing strength is going to put Obama on his heels.

Next is Iowa, where Romney's camp senses serious momentum in the wake of several surprising newspaper endorsements. Iowa is very close. Romney wins it by a point.

Romney also made up massive ground in Nevada, but it is very unlikely he can prevail. The Harry Reid, SEIU machine, plus a sizable Democratic leaning Latino vote is too much for Romney to overcome in one of the most economically ravaged states in the nation.

This leaves us with Wisconsin and New Hampshire, two states that continue to be close. If Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin is looking like a must win for Romney. Even picking up Iowa and Colorado doesn't put Romney over 270. Instead he'd need Wisconsin as New Hampshire is not worth enough EV's. These are the two closest states in my estimation. I'm giving them both to Obama. They comprise a fire wall for him and are being fiercely contested. It seems that Democrats have an edge in both, but one that is tenuous. Republicans remain bullish on Wis. because of the Walker recount victory. If that machine can beat to parity the union machine and the liberal hotbed of Madison: Obama would be toast.

If Obama wins a few things are suggested. He'd be the first president since Wilson in 1916 to be re-elected by a thinner margin than their initial election. Secondly, he failed to expand the map and his map actually contracted. Obama will set new benchmarks for what types of metrics a president can have and still expect re-election. Obama's 2012 campaign for all it's criticisms, was a deft playing of a weak hand. Obama gambled on an early on gambit to spend hundred of millions of dollar attacking Romeny in the swing states on personal issues. This appears to be helping late in the game. Romney did nothing and should he lose that may have been his key error despite the fact that late in the game he his placing Obama on defense in totally Democratic areas. Sandy ended up being the October surprise that helped Obama. It took the narrative off the race in the last days and allowed him to look presidential and bipartisan.

If Romeny wins it will because of a masterful debate performance, economic fundamentals that favored him, and the fact that at the end of the day he was able to counter the Obama turnout operation. People who believed in September that the race was over Obama were engaging in a level of fantasy I've only seen from cranks on this website. The truth is that Romney was in fact raking in cash hand over fist and laying the groundwork for a strong finish.

I'm projecting Obama is re-elected but this is the closest presidential race I've seen since I joined Dave Liep's Election Atlas.

As per usual, I was to thank Dave Liep for making this website and maintaing it. I was to thank all of you for your helpful comments, your insights and questions, and your own maps.

Remember whatever the outcome, it's onward to big races in 2014 and 2016 is close than you think.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie

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