Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:157

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	275
Rep	263
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	201
Rep	200
Ind	0
Tos	137

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-6	-1	-84	23	2	275	-84
Rep	+6	+1	+84	0	0	0	22	2	179	+84
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
93	47	36	5	5

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-11-06 @ 02:47:08
Calling the race tentatively for OBAMA...BUT (before you go pouring the booze either to celebrate or drown your sorrows) this race is close enough and enough states are in play that a Romney win is not out of the realm of distinct possibility. Never have I witnessed or predicted a presidential election where I was this uncertain about the outcome. In 2004, I was confident of a Bush win. In 2008 Obama was the obvious call. Today with fewer tha 24 hours till the polls close, it's all up in air, and it's all coming to down most especially the key battleground state of Ohio, just as it in 2004. Though th comparisons don't just stop there. Since I always call every state, today at the buzzer, Ohio is going for Obama by a razor thin margin of one point or less. Turnout is critical for Obama if he doesn't get 2008 levels among his base his risks falling a few thousand votes short in OH and losing the election. I have never before seen a race where there was such a disconect between the national polling numbers and the state level polling. It is not likely that Democrats have that level of a structural advantage in the Electoral College that he could be effectively tied with Romney but be sweeping all the swing states. More likely is that either Obama is going to decisively beat Romney or Romney is going to closely defeat Obama. However there is a small probability that that the EV winner could be the popular vote loser. Romney's internal polling released just today suggests he will sweep Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The margins will be very close in all states (1-3% point each). If Obama carries Ohio, but Romney wins NC, VA, and FL, then a showdown ensues for the smaller swingstates for NH, NV, CO, IA, WI, and now the two states Romney is trying to put in play with his high risk high reward strategy in PA and MI. Michigan and Pennsylvania where are various time leaning or strong Obama, but now Romney has made up a lot of ground in both. Fundamentals in both states should give Romney a boost and on paper should've been states that Romney could be competitive in. Reminds me of 2004 when suddenly at the end Bush closed to gap with Kerry in PA and was nearly tied at the end (Kerry 51% - Bush 48%). I excpect Obama may only win PA and MI by similar margins to Kerry. If Romney upset Obama in either game over for Obama. More likely for Romney is a pickup in Colorado which has been trending his way (though Obama has made up some ground in the wake of Sandy). Colorado continues to be a must win for Romney but it continues to be one where GOP's growing strength is going to put Obama on his heels. Next is Iowa, where Romney's camp senses serious momentum in the wake of several surprising newspaper endorsements. Iowa is very close. Romney wins it by a point. Romney also made up massive ground in Nevada, but it is very unlikely he can prevail. The Harry Reid, SEIU machine, plus a sizable Democratic leaning Latino vote is too much for Romney to overcome in one of the most economically ravaged states in the nation. This leaves us with Wisconsin and New Hampshire, two states that continue to be close. If Obama wins Ohio, Wisconsin is looking like a must win for Romney. Even picking up Iowa and Colorado doesn't put Romney over 270. Instead he'd need Wisconsin as New Hampshire is not worth enough EV's. These are the two closest states in my estimation. I'm giving them both to Obama. They comprise a fire wall for him and are being fiercely contested. It seems that Democrats have an edge in both, but one that is tenuous. Republicans remain bullish on Wis. because of the Walker recount victory. If that machine can beat to parity the union machine and the liberal hotbed of Madison: Obama would be toast. If Obama wins a few things are suggested. He'd be the first president since Wilson in 1916 to be re-elected by a thinner margin than their initial election. Secondly, he failed to expand the map and his map actually contracted. Obama will set new benchmarks for what types of metrics a president can have and still expect re-election. Obama's 2012 campaign for all it's criticisms, was a deft playing of a weak hand. Obama gambled on an early on gambit to spend hundred of millions of dollar attacking Romeny in the swing states on personal issues. This appears to be helping late in the game. Romney did nothing and should he lose that may have been his key error despite the fact that late in the game he his placing Obama on defense in totally Democratic areas. Sandy ended up being the October surprise that helped Obama. It took the narrative off the race in the last days and allowed him to look presidential and bipartisan. If Romeny wins it will because of a masterful debate performance, economic fundamentals that favored him, and the fact that at the end of the day he was able to counter the Obama turnout operation. People who believed in September that the race was over Obama were engaging in a level of fantasy I've only seen from cranks on this website. The truth is that Romney was in fact raking in cash hand over fist and laying the groundwork for a strong finish. I'm projecting Obama is re-elected but this is the closest presidential race I've seen since I joined Dave Liep's Election Atlas. As per usual, I was to thank Dave Liep for making this website and maintaing it. I was to thank all of you for your helpful comments, your insights and questions, and your own maps. Remember whatever the outcome, it's onward to big races in 2014 and 2016 is close than you think.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					245
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	28/35	63/70	90.0%	49	1	16	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	49	1	23	T	272
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	111	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	65	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	19	21	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	46	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	45	6	226	T	372
2016 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	63	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	24/34	56/68	82.4%	55	1	1		362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	25	1	25	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	26/36	59/72	81.9%	34	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	31	0	123	T	300
2012 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	157	0	401	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	20/33	50/66	75.8%	66	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	21	0	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	18/52	60/104	57.7%	105	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	5	0	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	93	2	34	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	94	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	1	1	T	103
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	183	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	101	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	43	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	8	2	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	94	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	103	1	22	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	140	2	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	816/884	586/884	1402/1768	79.3%