PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - dmurphy1984 (R-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-01 Version:1

Prediction Map
dmurphy1984 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dmurphy1984 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem247
 
Rep291
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem201
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos131
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-8-1-112212247-112
Rep+8+1+112000222179+112
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
89453653
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

It all comes down to turnout, imho. This assumes a Romney win of about 52%-48% nationally, which is within the realm of possibility given the slight Romney edge among likely voters in some polls (particularly Gallup.)
I genuinely feel that Florida and Virginia will go to Romney, given their tendency to vote Republican except in years when the Democrats have won decidedly. Ohio, much less certain about, but hope that turnout will carry the state to Romney, albeit very narrowly. Wisconsin and Iowa are tricky to call also, but given that unemployment is very high in Wisconsin in particular, I tend to give Romney an edge here also, but again narrowly.
New Hampshire will stay with Obama, maintaining true to New England in general.
Early voter returns in Colorado give the edge to Romney there, while early voting in Nevada give the edge to Obama.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/33 23/33 56/66 84.8% pie 1 12 28T
P 2016 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 1 1 8T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 1 120T
P 2014 Senate 36/36 26/36 62/72 86.1% pie 2 1 4T
P 2012 President 50/56 39/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 5 508T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 0 144T
P 2010 Senate 33/37 27/37 60/74 81.1% pie 4 0 54T
P 2008 President 49/56 32/56 81/112 72.3% pie 3 7 474T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 5 6 113T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 17/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 176 107T
P 2004 President 55/56 37/56 92/112 82.1% pie 15 11 126T
Aggregate Predictions 436/466 296/466 732/932 78.5% pie


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